Young man beats older woman

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Donald Trump's brotherly bet appears to be paying off.

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In 2016, Donald Trump bet everything on the anti-Mexico card. Republican strategists raised their hands. “We need the Hispanic vote,” they complained, predicting their candidate would fail.

In 2024, he’s betting everything on the manhood card. People in the Grand Old Party are once again worried, at least privately. “We need women’s voices,” they whispered worriedly, pointing to Nikki Haley. This has long been stubbornly opposed to Trump. She then kissed his ring and agreed to campaign for women's votes. The MAGA camp gave Hailey the cold shoulder.

Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, an ardent Trump supporter, explained why:

At first glance, the bet seems risky. Men, especially young people and nonwhites, are among the “low propensity voters,” meaning they are not reliable voters but sometimes go to the polls and sometimes don't. They head to the polls on November 5. The bro strategy worked, especially because the U.S. media landscape has changed dramatically.

It’s no longer editorials in The New York Times or The Washington Post that influence voters, it’s podcasts like Joe Rogan’s. Trump gave him a three-hour interview and was rewarded for it. On YouTube alone, the film has been viewed more than 30 million times, mostly by young men.

Kamala Harris chose a completely different tack. She's forged a coalition, from Taylor Swift to Liz Cheney, that seemed impossible before in a divided country. Unlike Trump, she relied on a “happy campaign.” While the former president no longer has any boundaries, insulting political opponents as “internal enemies” and referring to immigrants as “pests,” she has tempered her demagoguery.

Instead, their strategy is designed to exploit women's anger. This anger has been building in recent years. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was denied the White House despite winning a majority of the vote. Trump then sent three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, which, against the wishes of the vast majority of Americans, struck down legalized abortion nationwide after nearly 50 years. The women could only protest helplessly.

This strategy also worked partially, unfortunately only partially. Older, better-educated white women in particular voted for Harris.

The fact that blacks and Latinos are helping return Trump to the White House must be doubly painful for Harris and Democrats.

Like Hillary Clinton, Harris recognizes that respectability no longer pays. The motto Michelle Obama once gave to Clinton — “When they go low, we go high” — seems like a losing battle in the current political climate.

The final election results are still to be determined. But Trump appears to be the winner. America's path toward authoritarianism seems set, and the liberal West is about to lose its protective power. Here, too, right-wing populists will give up some of their remaining restraints.