Why you shouldn't underestimate Donald Trump

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The U.S. election has entered its sprint phase. The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains wide open. Will the Republican Party really make a comeback?

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Some unforgettable events happen in everyone's life. For me, this included US election night in November 2016, when I roamed Manhattan looking for Watson. When I walk into my Brooklyn Airbnb, I'm almost certain to celebrate Hillary Clinton becoming the first female president of the United States. As we all know, things turned out very differently.

As the evening progressed, it became increasingly clear that Donald Trump was going to make a splash and win the election. I will never forget the frustrated and tearful faces in Times Square or the cheers in front of Fox News headquarters on Sixth Avenue. Not even Trump expected to win.

On election night 2016, Clinton supporters were stunned in New York.Image: FR61802 AP

From then on I fell into the category of burned children. I think the argument that Kamala Harris will win is just as premature as the argument for Hillary Clinton. Of course, the vice president won't carry the same baggage, knowing that Trump is intellectually and temperamentally unfit to serve as president.

Death fever

However, with less than a week to go until D-Day, the competition was wide open. In the latest polls – if you can believe it – Kamala Harris's approval rating is rising again. However, in seven key battleground states, she was actually tied with Trump, with the difference falling within the margin of statistical error.

Most experts have learned lessons from the 2016 disaster. They declined to give a clear prediction. For two of the most respected “election gurus,” even intuition points in opposite directions: Nate Silver represents Donald Trump, while James Carville “emotionally” supports Kamala Trump Harris.

symbolic place

The former prosecutor from California delivered his “closing arguments” on Tuesday at a symbolic spot on the Ellipse in front of the White House. On January 6, 2021, Donald Trump led a mob that stormed the Capitol. Harris wants to remind the American people how dangerous his comeback would be.

Kamala Harris appeared in front of the White House on Tuesday night.Image: trapezoid

Indeed, it’s difficult for outsiders to understand why a figure like Donald Trump has any real chance of winning the election again. A man who was twice impeached by Congress and faces multiple criminal charges, including the attack on the Capitol.

life in bubble

In a perfect world, Donald Trump would have to give up all hope. But there are serious divisions within the United States. Trump’s fervent supporters live in a bubble, disconnected from reality, and even “moderate” voters are attracted to him. Therefore, there are reasons why he should not be underestimated.

economy

America is actually doing great economically. They have recovered from the coronavirus crisis better than any other country and wages are rising. However, this realization does not reach many people. They just see everything in the supermarket becoming more expensive and miss Trump's first term, when their purchasing power was higher.

However, Kamala Harris has caught up to Trump when it comes to economic expertise. Americans are clearly aware that the punitive tariffs announced by Trump will increase inflation, which has fallen sharply recently. Mass deportation of some 11 million “illegal” immigrants would have absurd consequences for the economy.

Early voting

Waiting in line to vote early in Doylestown, Pennsylvania.Image: trapezoid

Four years ago, President Trump argued against mail-in voting and early voting. Challenger Joe Biden benefits from it. Now Republicans have changed their minds and are incentivizing voters to turn out for early voting. A week before Election Day, 50 million votes had been cast.

judiciary

Donald Trump's team appears unprepared for 2020. When Biden's defeat became apparent, it responded with a wave of lawsuits, but it only succeeded in the sideshow of Pennsylvania's vote count. Now Trump's lawyers are preparing to challenge the election results. There is a risk of long-term and negative consequences.

Has Teflon effect

Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a tasteless joke in New York calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” which was a good thing even for the Trump campaign. She distanced herself from it, and the former president himself emphasized his ties to the Caribbean island during an appearance in Allentown, Pa., on Tuesday.

Trump has good reason to worry. Pennsylvania is perhaps the crucial swing state, where many Puerto Ricans live. Regardless, they feel like second-class citizens. Your island is officially a U.S. territory, not a full federal state. Their political rights are correspondingly restricted.

Still, it's far from certain whether Hinchcliffe's gaffe will hurt Donald Trump. Eight years ago, days before the election, a video emerged in which Trump made nasty comments about women. Many believed he was finished. In the end, not only was he elected, but a majority of white women voted for him.

Underestimating Donald Trump would be a big mistake. In 2016 and 2020, he performed better in Election Day polls than before. If this effect were to repeat itself, his electoral victory would hardly be taken away from him. According to Politico, his biggest weakness is not Puerto Ricans but the suburbs, where Kamala Harris has a clear advantage.

Polls show her leading by seven points. If that remains the case, it would be enough to “compensate for Harris' weakness among blacks, Latinos and young people,” Politico's analysis said. Anger among many women over the Supreme Court's abortion ruling also plays a role.

You should never underestimate Donald Trump, but you shouldn't overestimate him either. In some ways, the 2024 election defies usual categorization. Whoever mobilizes better by next Tuesday will win: the candidate who has never lost an election or the candidate who has lost every election since 2016.