Why Trump's election might not be so bad for the environment

Donald Trump wants to reverse all of his predecessor’s climate protection efforts. However, this will not return the world to fossil times. a classification.

Stephanie Schneederiger/ch media

Donald Trump sums up his energy and climate policies with a simple slogan: “Drill, baby, drill.” So drill, drill, drill — for coal, oil and gas. The US president-elect plans to redraw the boundaries of two nature reserves in Utah, the New York Times reports. This would make thousands of hectares of land available for oil drilling and mining.

In addition, the United States – the world's highest emitter after China – may withdraw from the Paris climate agreement next year. Observers also believe Trump will appoint prominent oil and coal lobbyists to his administration and advisory staff.

Such speculation accompanies the climate conference currently taking place in Baku (Azerbaijan). “Clearly what makes negotiations more difficult is the uncertainty about how dependent other countries will be on the United States from next year,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate researcher at ETH Zurich. Because Trump’s behavior is unpredictable.

America still wants to be better than China

Anthony Pate, a professor of climate policy at ETH Zurich, added that the United States under Joe Biden has begun to take a leadership role in climate protection, although he has not stopped activities such as fracking. But now, with Trump as president, the United States is unlikely to decide on more ambitious climate goals. Still, Pat doesn't think Trump will seriously impact global action on climate change. Especially industrialized countries like China or Europe.

Some experts also imagine that competition with China will play a decisive role. China currently dominates global production of electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines and solar cells. This makes the United States very angry. Internal pressure on Trump to counter China’s manufacturing power won’t go away.

However, Anthony Pate suspects the green energy transition may be slowing down in poorer countries. Because the United States is likely to reduce financial support to these countries and not honor the commitments it has made.

'Trump likes to win'

Yes, it can slow down, but the global shift to green energy cannot be stopped. Ultimately, these are cheaper than oil, gas, and coal, making the switch particularly worthwhile economically—even in the United States. Mark Maslin, a climate science professor at University College London, said the U.S. green economy has at least 10 million jobs, compared with only 300,000 jobs in the fossil fuel industry.

«Trump is a businessman. He likes to win,” said Chris Hilson, director of the Reading Center for Climate and Justice. “Sticking to the fossil fuel economy is unlikely to allow the U.S. economy to win. “

Tesla boss Elon Musk won't like that either. Trump hopes to give him an important position in the government. For him, the competitiveness of the U.S. electric vehicle and battery industry is very important. “This isn’t about climate, it’s about business,” Hilson said.

Elon Musk may be worried about the competitiveness of the U.S. electric vehicle and battery industry.Image: trapezoid

For Friedrich Otto, a physicist at Imperial College London and an expert on extreme weather events, it's clear: “Trump can deny climate change all he wants, but the laws of physics don't care about politics.” Only in October Two hurricanes, Helen and Milton, caused more than $100 billion in damage and claimed more than 200 lives. As global warming further intensifies, extreme weather in the United States will become worse and therefore more costly.

Republicans benefit hugely from climate package

ETH climate researcher Anthony Pate also believes that it is almost impossible for Trump to reverse Joe Biden’s most important achievement in climate protection: the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This way, American companies will receive billions of dollars in subsidies if they invest in green technology.

Although Trump has announced that he will overthrow the IRA, his own donors, voters and party politicians may thwart his plans. Because: “It was mainly the states that voted for Trump that benefited from the IRA,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a professor and director of the Institute for Atmosphere and Climate at ETH Zurich. More than a dozen congressional Republicans have spoken out against cutting clean energy tax credits.

Seneviratne also emphasized that Trump cannot undermine climate protection efforts in individual states: “For example, California, the world's fifth-largest economy, plans to eliminate its net carbon dioxide emissions by 2045.” Republican-dominated Texas is also leading the way The transition to wind and solar energy.

A majority of Americans support expanding renewable energy, according to the nonpartisan Pew Research Institute in Washington. Two-thirds believe China should rely more on wind and solar energy rather than oil, coal and natural gas. (aargauerzeitung.ch)

Economists close to the Kremlin have warned that Russian output will fall sharply. This could have serious consequences for the economy.

The Russian economy may face a serious impact. The reason is that the central bank recently raised the key interest rate to 21%, which may lead to lower output, corporate bankruptcies and increased payment defaults. This is the conclusion reached in a recent report by the Kremlin-affiliated Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (TsMAKP).