Why Trump Voters Are Poised to Increase Senate Majority: From the Politics Department

Welcome to your online version From the policy tableA nightly newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today's edition, Capitol coverage veterans Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorpe V report from Montana on Donald Trump's voters will decide whether Sen. John Tester wins another term. – And whether Democrats will be able to maintain their majority in the Senate. Plus, the “Meet the Press” moderator breaks down the poll numbers behind Barack Obama's tough message to black voters.

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Jon Tester is pushing for ticket splitting in a Montana Senate race that appears to be slipping away

By Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorpe V

BUTTE, Mont. – Tim Combo arrived at the Western States Carpenters' second-floor union hall here Wednesday, covered in dust and goosebumps from a day's work. Combo, a 27-year-old union carpenter, felt deeply that the election would directly affect his life – and he made his choice.

“I’m here to vote for John Tester and I’m going to vote for Donald Trump,” Combo said in the room where Tester was speaking.

Combo Tester, a Democrat, represents the best hope of winning a fourth Senate term in deep-red Montana — and in doing so, Democrats will maintain a slim majority in the chamber. But vote-splitters like him are becoming less common with each passing election in the polarized United States, giving Republicans a better chance of winning the Senate majority this fall.

Poll after poll indicates Tester trails Republican Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and retired Navy SEAL, although he trails Trump at the top of the ticket by a smaller margin than Vice President Kamala Harris.

Tester, who has previously dismissed the odds, said he believes unions represent the deep connection he has with the people of his state when he spoke Wednesday night.

“Look, I have my own brand here in the state, and it’s different from the national Democrats,” he said in an interview. “I would never have been elected the first time or any other time if it had been as a national Democrat.”

But Tester's campaign is taking an aggressive approach to convincing Trump voters in Montana that he is worth keeping because of the specific issues he has worked on to benefit the state. At the Butte union hall, Tester emphasized his work to ensure that billions of dollars in infrastructure projects created in 2022 create union jobs. The mostly male crowd that packed the hall, many of whom testers admitted they would vote for Trump, cheered loudly.

Tester, who twice voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges, promised he would work with Trump and even list things they would agree on.

“We probably agree with the Second Amendment. We probably agree on the southern border. We, I mean, there are a number of things, yes, yes,” he said.

Read more from Ryan and Frank →

Silver State Order: Further west, Nevada hosts a Senate race that could shape a must-win for Democrats and a potential majority for the Republican Party.

Bridget Bowman reports from Las Vegas that some Republicans worry it may be too late for Republican nominee Sam Brown to close the gap in the polls with Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen, even as the presidential race remains tight in the swing state.

Read more from Bridget →

Poll Numbers Support Obama's Warning to Black Men

By Kristen Welker

The most popular person left in Democratic politics has officially begun campaigning for Vice President Kamala Harris in a final race on Election Day.

Former President Barack Obama visited Pittsburgh on Thursday to strictly warn Black men to increase their support for Harris.

“We have never seen the same kind of energy and participation in all parts of our neighborhoods and communities as we did when we were running. Now, I also want to say that this seems more obvious with the brothers,” Obama told a group of volunteers before his appearance at the rally, according to a report from the group.

“Part of this makes me think that, well, you're not comfortable with the idea of ​​having a woman as president and you're coming up with other options and other reasons for that,” he said. “You're making up all kinds of reasons and excuses. I have a problem with that.”

He urged them to “talk to people on the sidelines” and urged them to “not consider standing on the sidelines or supporting someone who has a history of degradation because you think it’s a sign of strength.”

“Because that’s what it means to be human?” Bring women down?” Obama told them. “This is not acceptable.”

What is behind this warning?

A recent swing state poll conducted by Howard University's Public Opinion Initiative found that Harris holds a commanding lead over former President Donald Trump, with black voters overall, with significant divisions when the results were broken down by age and gender.

The poll found that men under 50 were the subgroup of black voters most likely to support Trump over Harris. While Harris had a 78-point lead among black men over 50, the number dropped to about 50 points among black men under 50.

Bottom line: This is the first time we've heard this powerful, direct appeal to other black men from the nation's first black president. The question is: Will this resonate and support this critical constituency with more enthusiasm in the final weeks of the campaign?

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