Why the electric car boom is just getting started now

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Contrary to the headlines, electric vehicles are still growing. 2024 will be another record year and they will get a new push soon.

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The craze for electric cars has cooled down over the past twelve months – the number of electric cars has even dropped significantly in Germany. But now electric cars are on the rise again; for the first time they are cheaper and more popular than gasoline cars in Europe, the United States and especially China.

In Europe, electric vehicles showed strong signs of recovery in September after several months of weakness. There are approximately 213,000 registered pure electric vehicles. An increase of 13.9% compared with the same month last year. Sales of Tesla's updated Model 3 increased by 314%, which was the main reason for the sales increase. In Switzerland, however, electric car sales were 11.2% lower than a year ago.

While electric cars are growing again in Europe, internal combustion engine cars are down about 20%. The market share of gasoline models dropped to 29.8%, and the market share of diesel models fell to 10.4%.

As a result, the share of electric cars rose to 17.3% from 14.8% in September last year – including EFTA and the UK, the share of electric cars in Europe is 19.1%. In our country, the penetration rate of electric vehicles reached 18.7% in September, while in Norway this figure was 96.4%, and almost only electric vehicles can find customers.

Electric vehicle sales are likely to continue to grow in most countries through the end of the year as dealers try to boost their electric quotas through discounts.

The demand for hybrid cars is even greater than that of electric cars. Market share rose to 32.8%. This means that hybrid cars rank first in Europe for the first time. Electric cars are expected to overtake hybrids in Europe in about five years.

China is falling behind—the U.S. is catching up

2024 will be a year of new highs for global electric vehicles, and this is not because of Europe, and certainly not because of Switzerland: after the first nine months of this year, electric vehicle sales in the EU fell by 5.8% compared with the same period last year.

Germany in particular saw a 28.6% drop in new EV registrations, weighing on Europe's balance sheets. In Switzerland, there was a decrease of 9.5% compared to the previous year.

The United States and especially China are currently experiencing electricity growth. After a sluggish start to the year, electric vehicles are back in the fast lane.

China is transitioning to electric vehicles faster than the West. More than every two passenger cars sold are already electric vehicles or partially electric plug-in hybrids. With this rapid change, internal combustion engine vehicles are likely to become a niche product in China starting in 2030.

In the United States, electric vehicle sales have traditionally lagged behind those in China and Europe. After a sales slump, electric vehicles are back on a growth trajectory in Trump country and are set to break the 10% barrier for the first time.

Electric vehicles are on the rise again in the U.S.

After a period of decline, electric vehicles (Battery Electric Vehicle; BEV) are rebounding again in the United States. There is less demand for some electric plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs). Photo and text: twitter/@AlecStapp

New electric car boom in 2025

Contrary to some media reports, if we don’t look at Switzerland or Europe, but across the world, electric vehicles will be on the rise in 2024 as well. However, partially electric plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which do not always run on electricity, are growing faster than fully electric vehicles (BEVs).

Sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are expected to total approximately 17 million units in 2024. This is an increase of about 20% from last year. However, growth has slowed over the past 12 months compared with 2021 and 2022.

The electric vehicle market will see more momentum in 2025: Europe will then implement stricter emissions regulations. The current average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars sold must be 116 grams₂ Emissions per kilometer should be reduced to below 93.6 g/km, otherwise manufacturers will face stiff fines. As a result, dealers are trying to offer customers as many internal combustion engine models as possible this year and increase the proportion of electric vehicles next year.

Specifically, manufacturers will have to increase rebates and reduce lease rates on climate-friendly electric vehicles to meet tougher CO2 emissions standards₂-Ability to adhere to limit values. Meanwhile, prices for gasoline cars are likely to continue to rise to make up for discounts on electric vehicles.

The last tightening of emissions regulations has boosted electric car sales in 2020. A similar effect is now expected. All major manufacturers, except Volvo, must reduce the value of their CO2 fleets by selling more electric cars or plug-in hybrids. It is understood that from 2030, CO₂-The target must then be further tightened and the share of electric vehicles must increase significantly again.

The Renault 5 is designed to help France comply with the EU's stricter CO2 regulations from 2025.Photo: Renault/Yannick Broussard

Price drops: electric cars cost €10,000

It's no coincidence that new emissions regulations coincide with the influx of more smaller, cheaper electric cars into dealerships. However, this alone is not enough to find enough customers. Manufacturers must also red pencil their existing electric models. In the past few days, companies such as Volkswagen, Opel, Hyundai, Kia and others have begun to reduce the prices of some electric models. In Belgium, Dacia sells its cheapest new cars for €10,000 new (thanks to government funding) and doesn't hide the fact that these models won't be redeemed until 2025.

The price difference between electric and gasoline cars is slowly but steadily narrowing. As in China, electric cars are likely to be cheaper than combustion engine vehicles in the medium term, especially as battery prices fall. They are already a more financially sound choice when the total cost over the entire life cycle is considered.

In short: The price and efficiency advantages of electric vehicles seal the fate of the internal combustion engine.

In addition to falling prices, the expansion of public charging infrastructure, shorter charging times, increasing range and the growing second-hand market are other drivers for electric vehicles. The biggest obstacle is the lack of charging options at home, or at least at work. This is a problem that politics, business and society can only solve together.

However, there are many reasons to choose an electric car, some of which you won’t understand until you own one. They are more comfortable to drive, quieter and more lively.

Countries such as China, Denmark and Norway show where this journey is headed.