Manchester City have won the Premier League four times in a row and are unbeaten in seven games this season.
However, the risk of relegation is greater than Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham and West Ham United, according to bookmakers.
City, with a 12/1 record, will be relegated this season from Arsenal I, Liverpool's two most prominent domestic rivals, priced at 2000/1 to drop into the Championship.
It has nothing to do with their subsequent draws against Arsenal and Newcastle United, nor does it depend on Rodri being out for the season with an anterior cruciate ligament injury in September lingering against Arsenal.
There is no correlation between what they perform on the pitch and their ability to play in the English Football League next year.
Bookmakers have changed their odds amid City's legal dispute with the Premier League over 100 charges made against the club – and the prospect of a significant point deduction if they are found guilty.
The dispute between City and the Premier League continues (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
“From an industry standpoint, the typical way to determine downside odds is to take the title odds and then flip them the other way,” explains Alan Alger, a gambling consultant. “This is the first time something like this hasn't happened.
“It is unprecedented that you could get a very low price for the title and at the same time a relatively low price for the inheritance. This can only be the case if there is a risk of relegation due to relegation sanctions or due to a sufficiently large point deduction that puts them at risk of relegation.”
What is the latest on Manchester City's allegations 115?
The hearing, which will decide whether City broke any of the Premier League's financial rules, began on September 16 and will be held in London.
It has taken over 18 months to reach this stage, with the Premier League announcing the charges in February 2023. The hearing is expected to last around two and a half months.
The club is accused of multiple alleged financial violations, including allegations that it injected revenue by inflating sponsorship deals and hid some costs by not declaring certain salaries and image rights payments.
The allegations include failing to provide accurate financial information, breaching Premier League rules on profits and sustainability, failing to cooperate with Premier League investigations, failing to provide accurate details of player and manager payments and failing to comply with UEFA FFP regulations.
Once the verdict is announced, City and the Premier League will be able to appeal if they are not satisfied with the decision. The city authorities maintain their innocence and strongly deny all allegations.
How did this affect their chances of relegation?
Manchester City's usual price, like Liverpool and Arsenal, for relegation is 2,000/1. This is a general price that clearly shows bookmakers that there is no chance of this happening.
However, in May the market situation changed and serious consideration had to be given to the likelihood of City receiving a points deduction, which could lead to relegation.
“We are the first in the industry to set a price for Manchester City,” explains Steve Freeth from Bet365. “We discussed whether we should propose a price because, quite clearly, the maturity of the liabilities at 2000/1 would be astronomical.
“It was a case of a few heads coming together, putting their fingers in the air and saying, 'What's going to happen to Manchester City and how do we see it?' because it's so extreme.
“The price we went for was 33/1 because it's unclear whether they'll get nothing at all or have 100 points deducted. We entered the market on May 19 at 33/1 and have traded steadily since then.”
Manchester City vs Premier League
Are people betting on City being relegated?
Yes, that's why their rates dropped from 33/1 to 12/1.
“The people who support this are regular punters on the street, placing bets of £1, £5 and £10,” says Freeth. “Those are the kinds of bets we make.
“We place quite a significant number of these bets, which is why the price has dropped from 33/1 to 12/1 over these months.”
Freeth noted that Bet365 had “built-in seven-figure liabilities”, meaning that if City were relegated this season, their payout to customers would be over £1m.
“We need to protect ourselves because the situation is so unstable and that's why we haven't offered the 2000/1 rate,” adds Freeth. “Manchester City could win the next 10 games on the bounce, but the price at 12/1 wouldn't change much. It's not about results on the field, but about results in the courtroom.
City are in good form in the Premier League but that has no impact on the odds (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
“It's purely a matter of protecting bookmakers from the possibility of a large number of points being deducted, which puts them in a down market,” Alger says. “And in a market with such a high percentage of bookmaker profits, because you have 20 teams and three winners, you can exaggerate the percentage and there is no advantage in putting it at 500/1 for Manchester City.
“But the fact that you can take advantage of a 12/1 trade and only take a small percentage of the margin from the overall market, there is no advantage to going for prices higher than that because you won't get any rewards for it. During the season you will continue to see them at a false relegation price given the risk of relegation.
Have lawsuits already had an impact on sports betting markets?
Everton and Nottingham Forest received points deductions last season, which has helped inform bookmakers on how to value stakes in legal cases and potential penalties for relegation chances.
However, the cases involving Everton and Nottingham Forest pale in comparison to what the Premier League has put forward regarding City.
“Sometimes you can catch someone, but there is very little information about City,” explains Freeth. “Last season there was a rule that Everton would get some deduction, so it wasn't that difficult to model. We didn't think Everton would get more than 10 points and neither did Nottingham Forest.
“But like everyone else, we have no idea (when it comes to Manchester City). Thanks to this, we were better prepared last season, but we have to remain vigilant and deal with it accordingly.
Has the potential points deduction affected City's chances of winning a fifth consecutive title?
Pep Guardiola's men are no longer favorites to win the Premier League, and Arsenal are seen by bookmakers as the club most likely to finish the season on top.
“The difference between being 4/7 favorites and then being 8/11 favorites at the start of the season seems minimal, but the percentage difference is about the same as the difference between 12/1 and 500/1 in the event of relegation,” he added. Algiers claims.
According to Freeth, people continue to support City to win the league, with the market recently impacted by Rodri's season-ending injury, as well as Kevin De Bruyne missing the last three games through injury.
(Top photo: Matt McNulty/Getty Images)
