Who Really Buys Folding and Clamshell Phones? Spoiler: almost no one

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I switched from the large Galaxy Note 8 (left) to the small Galaxy Z Flip 4.Image: Watson

In early 2023, after five years, I retired my old smartphone and replaced it with a compact foldable phone. I wanted a convenient phone that fit comfortably in my pocket and still offered a large display. But even with this purchase decision, I will still be an exotic by the end of 2024. As far as I know, another person in Watson owns a foldable smartphone.

Galaxy Z Flip 4: My personal phone of almost two years.GIF: Watson

Most people probably don't even want a foldable smartphone (also known as a foldable smartphone) as a gift. At least that's what the sales figures show, which have remained at homeopathic levels for years. At Digitec Galaxus, Switzerland's largest online retailer, 0.5% of all smartphones sold so far this year are foldable smartphones. Among them, 0.3% can be folded horizontally (Flip) and 0.2% can be folded vertically into a tablet (Fold).

The situation in other online stores is not much better: “In Brak, the share of foldable smartphones is approximately twice as high, at 1.06 percent,” said media spokesman Lukas Keller. Among them, “0.66% can be folded horizontally (flip), and 0.4% can be folded vertically (folded).” Furthermore, the proportion in French-speaking Switzerland is approximately twice that in German-speaking Switzerland.

Whether it's 0.5% or 1%: bestsellers look different. Foldable phones have been stuck in a niche market for five years.

From January to August 2004, only one of the 200 smartphones sold by Digitec Galaxus was foldable.Graphics: digitec galaxus

Digitec Galaxus says manufacturers have to view this year's meager market share as a small success: After last year's decline, the market has regained momentum with the latest foldable models from Samsung, Google, Motorola and others. Foldable devices that fold like a book into a small tablet grew 540% this year, while smaller clamshell or folding smartphones grew 220%.

It should be said that this growth is at a very low level in terms of unit numbers.

Sales of Digitec Galaxus' foldable and clamshell smartphones will be better in 2024 than the previous year, which was worse, but absolute sales numbers will still be very modest. Graphics: digitec galaxus

Although all major smartphone manufacturers except Apple offer foldable smartphones, the future doesn't look promising: “We're not seeing any significant growth. Foldable smartphones will likely remain a niche product — — at least for now,” online retailer Brack said.

Are foldable smartphones a global flop?

Last year, 16 to 18 million foldable smartphones were sold globally. Compared to the approximately 1.17 billion smartphones sold, this is just a drop in the ocean. Foldable devices have a global market share of 1% to 1.5% and enjoy a certain degree of popularity in China and South Korea.

Put another way: When Apple releases its new iPhone, in just the first few days it sells twice as many foldable phones as all other manufacturers sell in a year. This should also clear up the question of why Apple is the only major manufacturer to abandon foldable phones.

Who buys folding and clamshell phones?

Despite poor sales figures, Samsung, Google and a number of Chinese manufacturers remain steadfast in their commitment to foldable smartphones. They see this as an opportunity to steer young people away from iPhones and into the Android camp. For example, Samsung markets its foldable flip smartphone as a fashionable gadget for young women.

Keller von Brack says this strategy may work: “Foldable smartphones are more popular with women than with men.” percentage Whether it is a clamshell or foldable model, women use foldable devices at a higher rate than men. However, Keller offers an important caveat: Overall, by 2024, “significantly more men than women will buy new smartphones.”

An analysis by Digitec Galaxus also shows that men buy smartphones much more frequently. So we conclude that expensive foldable phones are most often bought not by young women but by wealthy men over 45: “Only two in 10 people who bought a Samsung Galaxy Fold or Google Pixel Fold this year were women ,” the online retailer said.

For every two units of Digitec Galaxus' foldable phone (Flip), someone over the age of 45 purchased it. Graphics: digitec galaxus

Men like big screens

Andrea Jacob, head of Digitec's Galaxus mobile phone range, said: “The actual main target group for foldable smartphones is older businessmen.”

This is for three reasons:

So are manufacturers missing out on the most important target group for foldable products by marketing to young people?

That may be the case, but it's clear that Samsung and company primarily want to appeal to young people, many of whom own iPhones. In theory, Apple's decision not to release a foldable iPhone for now gives them a rare opportunity to steal customers away from competitors.

In daily life, my experience is that iPhone users show some interest in foldable smartphones, but in the end the question always arises: When will Apple launch such a product?

Will a breakthrough come?

Samsung is said to have delivered more than 10 million foldable phones globally last year. By 2024, total production by all manufacturers is expected to reach approximately 25 million units, an increase of approximately 40% from 2023.

The numbers aren't exciting, but they're not so shaky that you should throw everything away.

I thought this little thing was cool, but I was lonely. Image: Watson

According to Digitec Galaxus, it will become clear whether foldable phones will break out of their niche market once they become more affordable. “As Chinese brands bring more such devices to the market, prices will come down. Customers with smaller budgets will also be interested in the phones due to competition,” Jacob said. The mobile phone expert expects foldable phones to have a market share of no more than 2 percent in Europe over the next three years.

One question: Market research firms have been predicting price drops for foldable devices for years. For Chinese manufacturers, this may be partially true. But folding smartphones from Samsung and Google are still expensive, and no one seriously believes Apple will offer a cheap folding iPhone.

Another question: Many Foldalbe users are apparently returning to classic smartphones. Market research firm Kantar believes that about 55% of foldable smartphone users will switch back to non-foldable devices.

Frankly speaking, as a folding screen user, I can understand this. Am I satisfied with my foldable phone? Actually already. Would I buy another one? not necessarily. The Galaxy Z Flip 4 doesn't have any decisive advantages for me personally, other than the fact that it's more compact than the average smartphone and therefore better suited to be carried in a pocket.