Where Speaker Johnson Sees the GOP's Path to Victory: Politics from the Table

Welcome to your online version From the policy tableA nightly newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today's edition, senior congressional reporter Scott Wong sits down with House Speaker Mike Johnson as he burns the nation in support of Republican congressional candidates. Plus, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray breaks down our latest NBC News poll, which shows how President Joe Biden is holding up Vice President Kamala Harris.

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House Speaker Johnson predicts a new coalition will elect Republicans in 2024

By Scott Wong

Hellertown, Pennsylvania. – In an exclusive interview with NBC News, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., detailed how he sees Republicans increasing their majority in the House and winning the White House and Senate: capturing greater percentages of Hispanic, black voters and Jews, as well as unionized workers. — traditionally democratic constituencies – compared to previous elections.

“When we do the math on the other side of this election, it will show that we are going to have a demographic shift,” Johnson said before a campaign event for a Republican congressional candidate in Hellertown.

“I think we will have a record number of Hispanic and Latino voters. I think there are record numbers of black and African-American voters, Jewish voters, union voters. I’m talking to all these people,” he continued. “And they’re not just reluctantly getting on board; They are excited.”

At the rally, Johnson and former President Donald Trump blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for high commodity prices and failed border security — two key issues for voters — even as inflation cooled and Trump helped kill a deal border bipartisan in the Senate.

“It’s a real drain on their base,” Johnson said of Democrats. “And the reason for that is because I think people are really looking beyond the team, beyond the individual. I think they’re looking at policies because they’re evaluating what their lives are like now versus what they were like four years ago.”

The 52-year-old speaker has toured more than 220 cities in 40 states, including a visit to Pennsylvania last week. In the final three weeks before Election Day, he will visit another 65 cities in 24 states as Republicans seek to attract new voters to protect or increase their three-seat House majority.

Much of Johnson's campaign time has been spent in battleground districts in California and New York, blue states where his party is defending a dozen seats and trying to win a handful of others. The majority could win or lose either of these two states, depending on how divided the House is. But Pennsylvania could also be critical, boasting a handful of close races in swing districts.

Read more from Scott →

New polls show how close Biden remains to Harris

By Mark Murray

Latest All Results NBC News PollThis helps explain why Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum has stalled with three weeks until Election Day: President Joe Biden remains a political obstacle.

We found that voters believed Biden's policies helped them (25%), versus those who said Biden's policies hurt them (45%).

Compare that to 44% of respondents who thought Trump's policies helped them and 31% who said they were harmed.

We also see this in Biden's approval rating in the polls (43%), while Trump's previous approval rating for the presidency is 5 points higher (48%).

And we see this in the question of what concerns voters more – Harris continuing the same approach as Biden, or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president. Overall, 43% of voters said they were more concerned about Harris going Biden's way, compared to 41% who were more concerned about Trump repeating actions from his White House tenure.

“The fact that Harris is slightly behind on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to believe that Biden's policies are hurting their families, while Trump's policies have helped their families,” said Jeff Horvitt , the Democratic half of the bipartisan party. group. Democratic half of the party. who conducts the NBC News poll.

For Bill McInturf, the Republican half of the polling team, the “headwinds” Harris faces in the polls include running as vice president under an unpopular president who has decided not to seek re-election.

“He is seeking another term on the current team,” he said.

The good news for Harris is that he has differentiated himself a bit from Biden – he is slightly more popular than Biden in the polls and is ahead of Trump by 5 points, which better represents the candidate's swing (although it is lower than his advantage of 9 points per month). . Before). His electoral position in an NBC News poll was stronger than Biden's at all times in 2024, when he was still in the race.

But the challenge for him is that he cannot answer what he would do differently than Biden – at least so far. Monica Alba and Carol E. Lee Report.

That's it for the policy table for now. If you have comments – like or dislike – send us an email newsletter@nbcuni.com

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