Many Ukrainians have lost trust in the West and its empty promises of aid. For them, it no longer matters whether Trump or Harris wins the US election.
Kurt Pelda, Odessa/ch media
The density of roadblocks in western Ukraine is impressive and somewhat reminiscent of the first weeks after the Russian invasion. At the time, the police and military were looking for Russian spies and saboteurs. Today, the biggest concern at checkpoints is the tens of thousands of deserters and military deserters.
All Saints' Day in Ukraine: A woman lights candles for soldiers killed fighting Russia.Image: trapezoid
The gunman at the roadblock had a tablet connected to a central database via the mobile network. Based on stored information and documents presented by travelers, uniformed officers can determine whether men aged 25 and older comply with registration requirements. In addition, roadblocks near the external borders of EU countries are intended to prevent men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country.
Wladyslaw*, a young soldier in the drone unit, said most of his comrades his age would run away if the option really existed. Freelance journalist Anatole* agrees. He feared being drafted into the army and would do whatever it took to escape to the West. But it's not that easy – especially since there are a lot of checkpoints. The Tisza River on the border with Romania is also one of many obstacles. More than thirty Ukrainians are said to have drowned while trying to escape.
Is there a threat to the authoritarian peace?
Many Westerners do not yet understand what they will face if Russia wins the war in Ukraine. The lack of a second wave of refugees after 2022 is also related to the control of Ukraine’s western border. The vast majority of Ukrainian refugees seek asylum in Europe, not the United States. A possible refugee wave is therefore not an issue in the US campaign.
However, the situation could worsen depending on the outcome of the US election and the decisions made by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Trump promised a quick end to the war. This may only work if he imposes peace on Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) also met with Republican Donald Trump during a visit to the United States in September.Image: trapezoid
Considering the current situation on the front lines, this does not mean anything good for Kyiv: cede at least 22% of the country's territory to Russia, abandon security guarantees and join NATO, and establish a puppet government controlled by Moscow. This is actually a surrender. Putin will not agree to a better solution for Ukraine without considerable pressure – which would mean a significant increase in Western arms deliveries to Kiev. He is currently in the process of winning the war.
Many Ukrainians are unclear about how Harris will handle Ukraine. What is most likely to be expected is a continuation of President Biden's hesitant policy: provide just enough weapons to keep Kyiv from collapsing, but never so much that the Russians are driven back. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently complained that only about 10 percent of the latest U.S. aid pledges had been fulfilled so far.
Zelensky with US Vice President Kamala Harris.Image: trapezoid
To Vladislav and Anatole—and probably many other compatriots—it didn’t matter who won in the United States. Anyway, there are too few weapons and ammunition, and Kiev is not allowed to use long-range missiles against targets in the Russian hinterland. This means that Russian fighter-bombers, which drop 100 to 200 glide bombs on Ukrainian positions and cities every day, are largely undisturbed because Ukraine is not allowed to attack the bases where these aircraft are stationed.
Millions more may flee to Europe
Olina*, a young aid worker in Kyiv, believes Trump will be a “catastrophe” for her country. “Trump believes you can negotiate with Putin. But even if there is a ceasefire and a peace treaty, Putin will only use it as a means to pause the fighting. Once he rearms his troops, he will wipe the rest of Ukraine off the map , and then threaten Europe.”
It is estimated that Kyiv still controls about 80% of the territory and is home to 30 million people, including about 4 million internally displaced people. If Ukraine loses, European politicians should carefully consider how many refugees will flow to the West: 1 million, 5 million, or 15 million? This would be a disaster not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe. Not to mention that Putin will encourage Eastern European countries to come under pressure due to Western weakness. This would not be a recipe for peace, but would lead to further threatening conflicts.
* Changed name (aargauerzeitung.ch)
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