What if there is a tie?

Trump and Harris are tied in polls. A draw is unlikely, but possible. What will happen then is made clear.

Felix Leitmeier/t-online

It seems entirely unclear whether former US President Donald Trump or current US Vice President Kamala Harris will win the presidential election. Their value is equally high in recent surveys. Ultimately, the election may come down to a handful of voters in a handful of unpredictable swing states. So a tie between the two candidates no longer seems so unlikely.

However, this has never happened before in modern American history. In 1800 it was actually a draw. The electoral system looked different at the time and was soon adjusted to avoid such a deadlock.

In current elections, it’s rare to actually see a tie. According to American investigation expert Nate Silver, the probability of this happening is 0.3%. Such a stalemate could occur if Harris wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and Trump wins in left-leaning districts in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Nebraska.

If exactly 269 voters vote for both candidates, the result is a tie. In the United States, it is not the people who elect the president, but the so-called Electoral College. Each state has a certain number of electors, and a total of 538 votes are cast. To become president, a candidate needs a majority of the vote: at least 270 votes.

In the event of a tie, the House of Representatives takes over

But what would happen if such a standoff did occur? The rulebook of American politics lays out what happens next in the Second and Twelfth Amendments to the Constitution. The election will then take place in the U.S. House of Representatives. After the newly elected members of Congress are sworn in, all 435 members of the House of Representatives will elect the president.

However, these representatives do not vote individually. Instead, they vote together as a joint delegation from their state, regardless of the population size of their state. That means a small state like Wyoming has the same voting rights as a more populous state like California. In order to win, a candidate must receive a majority of the state votes, i.e. at least 26 votes.

According to some media reports, the Republican Party will currently have an advantage in such an election. The party currently controls 26 delegations in the U.S. House of Representatives, compared with 22 for the Democratic Party. Members of both parties are equally represented in both delegations. But all that could change — depending on the outcome of the election.

The U.S. Senate will decide who will become vice president. Unlike the House of Representatives, each member here votes individually rather than on behalf of the state. Whoever gets 51 votes becomes vice president. Since there are two separate votes, the president and vice president may even end up being from different parties.

The vice president would also take over the duties of the president if there is no winner in the House election. The House of Representatives will then vote until a new president is elected.

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