US election. In Clallam County they always pick the next winner

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Do you want to know who will win the 2024 US presidential election as soon as possible? Then Clallam County is worth a look. Whoever emerges will likely win the White House. This rule has only been broken twice in the past 100 years. The last time was in 1976.

From then on, those who were eligible to vote always sided with the eventual winner. The same has been true for the past two elections. In 2020, a 50.18% majority in Clallam placed their cross next to Joe Biden's name – Donald J. Trump received 46.81% support. Four years ago, when Trump was unexpectedly elected as the 45th president, he defeated his opponent Hillary Clinton (44.8%) in Clallam with 47.63% support.

Politically speaking, Clallam hit right in the middle of America. Geographically, however, it is located on the edge of Washington state, the most northwestern state in the United States.

Clallam County is located on the Canadian border.Image source: shutterstock/Watson

Vancouver Island and Canada are only 20 kilometers apart across the Salian Sea. Picturesque Victoria is only a 90-minute ferry ride away.

Most of the nearly 80,000 residents are not living a happy life. The average household income is only $44,400. Nearly 9% of households live below the poverty line. Port Angeles, the largest town with 20,000 residents, is struggling with deterioration like many smaller cities in the United States.

Forks, Clallam County. Fans remember: The hit show “The Twilight Saga” was filmed here.Image: Shutterstock

Because in the United States, only those who have previously actively tried and registered are allowed to vote, the makeup of those eligible to vote may differ significantly from the demographics. In other words: residents are not the same as voters. So does Clallam.

Although whites make up only 89% of the total population, 95.7% of voters are white. The differences are even greater across age groups. Nearly 60% of those eligible to vote are over 65. They account for only 21.3% of the county's total population.

Not an ugly place: The cliffs on La Push Beach, said to be the most beautiful place in Clallam. Image: Shutterstock

Who will lead the Clallam race in 2024? It looks like it's going to be an equally close race in the upper left corner of the country as it is in the rest of the country. However, two indicators point to a Harris victory: Voter turnout appears to be lower than four years ago. That's been good for Democrats in Washington lately, as they've made gains among rank-and-file voters and highly educated voters. Instead, it means that those who abstain from voting are more likely to be in the Trump camp.

Washington state's primary, an almost legendary rule of 12 among election analysts, offers another sign. The Rule of 12 states that the outcome of the presidential election will be the same as the congressional primaries in the Northeastern states…minus 12% (for the Democrats). This year, Democrats easily won with 57.3% of the vote compared to 41.3%. That means Harris should win the election with about 4% more votes. So, it’s about the same margin as Joe Biden’s lead in 2020 (4.4%).

Compared with other European countries, many voters in Switzerland would vote for Donald Trump – about a quarter. That's much more than neighboring Scandinavia and Switzerland. A poll from the Public Opinion Research Institute shows this Gallup.