UK fertility rate falling faster than in any other G7 country – austerity policy seen as 'main factor' | UK news

Analysis commissioned by Sky News shows that since 2010 the average number of children women have in the UK has fallen faster than in any other G7 country.

Research by the Center for Progressive Policy (CPP) think tank found that this number, called the fertility rate, has fallen by 18.8%.

This figure represents the largest percentage decline in the G7 in 12 years, between 2010 and the latest statistics published in 2022.

According to CPP analyses, the second largest decline was recorded in Italy, followed by the United States, Canada, France and Japan, and an increase in Germany.

The decline in proportion refers to the change in the fertility rate compared to 2010.

Ben Franklin, CPP's interim CEO, said he believed “austerity and the drive for austerity” across the country were a “major factor” in lowering fertility rates during this period.

He described this as happening “at a faster rate” in the UK than in other countries because “the savings have been quite significant here and more so than in other countries”.

The CPP study also found that areas with higher poverty saw rates decline faster, which “shows the impact of government cuts to social security spending that have occurred over this time.”

Franklin said that in previous decades, declining fertility rates were due to “better educated, higher-income women.”

“This autumn, since 2010 and since the introduction of austerity programs, has mainly affected the poorer parts of the country.”

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A low fertility rate may lead to the creation of a “top-heavy” economy in which there will be more retirees than people of working age, and consequently burden the country's finances.

In 2022, births in England and Wales fell to their lowest level in 20 years.

Emily-Kate Day has one child, daughter Violet, with her husband, and even though both parents work full-time, they still can't afford a second child.

“It's really heartbreaking,” she says, “because we've always wanted to have a big family and last year we made the decision that maybe we wouldn't try for another one due to financial reasons.

“I would like to have a sibling for Violet, she also really wants a sibling, but it is financially impossible at the moment, with the nursery fees.”

Some argue that if there are fewer workers in the future, it will mean greater reliance on immigration to support the workforce.

However, in London and other parts of the country, fertility and birth rates – the number of live births per 1,000 people per year – are contributing to school closures.

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London authorities say a lower birth rate is the main reason for reduced demand for school places.

Professor David Miles CBE, of the Office's Committee for Budget Responsibility, says concerns about “not enough children” are “somewhat exaggerated”.

“There are natural economic forces that will offset the impact of the decline in the working population,” he said.

Professor Miles added that one such force could be “attracting more people into the labor market” as companies seek older people to work part-time.

“These are economic forces that naturally interact when there is a shift in the demand for labor in relation to the supply of labor,” he said.