A picture is worth a thousand words: Traffic light government has been a crisis from the start.Image source: DPA
interview
Germany's traffic light government, made up of the Social Democrats, Greens and FDP, collapsed on Wednesday night. German political scientist Michael Coase says who is to blame for what happens next in Germany will benefit most from new elections.
On the day Donald Trump won the US presidential election, the German government announced its next blow: the collapse of Traffic Light, the government coalition made up of the Social Democrats, Greens and FDP. What happened in Germany?
Michael Kors: This is a good question. The event also coincides with the US election, which is in line with the basic motto of the traffic light government: first we have bad luck, then we have bad luck.
Michael Koss is Professor of Political Institutions of the Federal Republic of Germany and the European Union at Lufana University in Lüneburg.Image: zvg
Why is this bomb going off now?
The FDP's Christian Lindner apparently has a clear exit plan. This had become clear to him yesterday afternoon. He wants to show up at this summit hosted by the traffic light government and then just walk out. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz beat him to it, referring him directly to the federal president and handing over a certificate of dismissal. That's how it happened. In short, you could say: the FDP decided to abandon traffic lights. She acknowledged that the situation would escalate on U.S. election day. This alone speaks volumes for the LDP.
What does this mean specifically from your perspective?
In fact, everyone in the Liberal Democrats clearly doesn't care about anything. In a country like Germany that attaches great importance to stability for historical reasons, it is simply irresponsible to implement such an escalating action on a day like this.
“This is in line with the traffic light government's motto: first we are unlucky, then we are unlucky.”
In your opinion, who is responsible for this suffering?
It is clear to me that the FDP such as Christian Lindner bear the main responsibility. The Greens and SPD were at least constructive and willing to compromise during the traffic light coalition. This brought them a lot of criticism, especially from the Green Party. But: at least they've been trying. The Liberal Democratic Party has repeatedly undermined the compromises that have been painstakingly made. Mainly related to the debt brake.
Why are the Liberal Democrats so stubborn? This won’t go unnoticed by voters, either. According to surveys, the Liberal Democratic Party has lost more and more public support.
The Liberal Democrats are dealing with the trauma here. Since 2017, Christian Lindner’s statement “It is better to govern incorrectly than not to govern at all” has hung around his neck like a millstone. But politics is not self-medication.
Instead, the LDP is flexing a power it no longer possesses.
Exactly. The LDP has degenerated into a monoculture. In this political sphere, there is almost no growth anymore, except for demands for limits on government spending and upward redistribution.
To people
Michael Koss is a political scientist and professor at the Institute of Political Science at Lufana University in Lüneburg, Germany. His research focuses on the political institutions of Germany and the European Union. He is particularly interested in topics such as democratic development, systems of government in federal republics, and international comparisons of political systems. He has completed research work at Harvard University, Sciences Po, and Stockholm. Coase regularly appears in the media as a political expert and writes guest articles on current topics in German politics and the European Union.
What’s next for Germany?
Friedrich Merz, federal chairman of the CDU, has this in his grasp. If he really does not agree to dissolve the Bundestag in January, then we will have early elections, because the popularity of the SPD and the Greens – if we can even talk about popularity – would otherwise be even more damaged. Without the support of the CDU, the SPD and Greens will be blocked until January and barely able to govern. These snap elections will be held before Christmas.
He may have everything under control: CDU leader Friedrich Merz has his eye on the Federal Chancellery.Image: trapezoid
In eastern Germany, the AfD and the Wagenknecht alliance have enjoyed great success in recent state elections. Won't this government crisis work in their favor when it comes to new elections?
Absolutely. How can you stand up during the campaign and accuse parties like the Alternative for Germany and BSW of being irresponsible if you have the government collapse the day after the US election? What is happening now is a massive campaign by the AfD and BSW. You no longer need to do anything for a new election. Maybe just looking a little bit state-backed – that's enough to get good electoral results. This is shameful.
Do we need to worry now that the Alternative for Germany might enter government?
As of today, I estimate that the CDU will win the new election. We're talking about a victory with 34 percent of the electorate. This number is miniscule considering the political support provided by the Traffic Light Party. The CDU should actually benefit more from this crisis. However, many voters will turn to Sahra Wagenknecht and Björn Höcke. This is a real problem. This is a real concern for Germany's neighbors and for the people of Switzerland.
“The AfD and BSW no longer have to do anything for new elections.”
How did German citizens feel the day after this bad news broke?
My opinion is that a lot of people are shocked. After Trump was elected, it was just too much. I myself was surprised at how quickly the alliance collapsed. We know this summit is going to happen. But when reporters caught my attention, I realized how determined the LDP was. From that point on, it felt like our situation was changing every moment. I think a lot of people are overwhelmed and have to digest it all first.
They are still smiling (from left): Annalena Berbock (Green Party), Robert Habeck (Green Party), Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Christian Lindner (FDP) After signing the 2021 Traffic Light Party United Alliance Agreement. Image source: DPA
This instability comes at an untimely time not only from a political perspective but also from an economic perspective. The German economy is stagnating. Some even talk about a crisis.
You could say that, yes. Of course, one can now draw very different conclusions from this initial situation. I think this is exactly the residual calculation of FDP. You now say that Germany must eventually clean up its finances, which specifically means that it must pursue austerity. Others say now we must take money into our hands and invest massively in our infrastructure and self-defense.
What's the right strategy?
I'm not an economist, and I don't want to assume there's a right answer. But what I can say from a political science perspective is this: In times of crisis that we are going through today in the world, in Europe, in Germany, it would be crazy not to put money in your hands. This has been proven in the past.
Whose past? Those from Germany?
The best example comes from the United States. Why did the United States fare best during the Great Depression of the 1930s? Because of the “New Deal” of then US President Franklin Roosevelt. This included numerous economic and social reforms. How can we ensure that the United States truly becomes a multi-ethnic democracy? Lyndon B. Johnson, President of the United States from 1963 to 1969, called this elaborate plan of further social policy reforms the “Great Society.” But the Great Society program failed to materialize. To me, this is a core reason why the American Republican Party is what it is today: filled with supporters of white supremacy and people like Donald Trump at the top. That's why I say: In times of great crisis, we must keep money in our hands. In Germany, the focus now is on preserving democracy.
“Many voters will turn to Sahra Wagenknecht and Björn Höcke.”
Where does this money come from?
I share the same view as Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In his speech, he said Germany had much less debt than most other European countries. I would translate that as: We can still be in debt now, and we should be. We must lift the debt brake in the Basic Law. It seems to me that abolishing the debt brake would also be in the interests of the likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz from the CDU. Otherwise, when he takes office, he will start messing around with exceptions, earmarks, and emergencies to be able to invest and spend, as was the case during the Traffic Light League.
Germany is also one of the most important countries in the European Union. What consequences would the break-up of the Union have for Europe as a whole, the EU and perhaps Switzerland, which is currently negotiating with the EU?
Please don't hear any nationalism when I say: Germany's domestic policies are more important to the EU than those of the vast majority of EU member states. France may be an exception. That's it. The end of the Traffic Light Union sends a signal of aimlessness and disunity to the EU. At this moment, the U.S. position on Russia's war in Ukraine is unclear. Annalyna Berbok stood up in Kiev on Monday and told people she supported Ukraine. Two days later, she could no longer support anything because there was no longer a majority for anything. How could you act so irresponsibly? I really can't believe it.
Is there anything positive you can take away from this crisis?
Well, at least you could say there are some economists who welcome the end of the traffic light union. It's also a relief for some, as the Traffic Light Alliance has been a thorn in their side. Meanwhile, everyone has been obsessed with GroKo, the government alliance of the CSU and SPD. GroKo is Germany’s vision for the future and we are moving in this direction from today on.
How do you see Germany's long-term future? Will we see alliances collapse more often?
I do believe that our politics are becoming increasingly short-term. It's like it has become ubiquitous. The exciting question is whether BSW will at some point be willing to make responsible compromises. My personal evaluation: No. If I'm right, we may have a permanent problem.
Veshalbu?
In fact, we should not worry about power struggles, but consider what is needed at the grassroots level. The old political conflicts are more visible than they have been for a long time: the inequality between East and West Germany, the growing danger posed by Russia, the fact that we can no longer rely on the United States as a protective force. But unfortunately, I have a feeling that this danger has seeped into the minds of a very small number of politicians in Germany. In their words yes, but not in their actions.
