Between Wednesday and Thursday, October 24 and 25, a sharp drop in atmospheric pressure is expected in northern Argentina, and throughout Thursday there should be a cyclogenesis and a frontogenesis, that is, a cold front (frontogenesis) and a extratropical cyclone (cyclogenesis)
A sharp drop in air pressure between Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay during Wednesday and Thursday will facilitate the formation of strong rain clouds in southern Brazil that will then form a tropical cyclone.
Here are some important things you need to know about this tropical cyclone.
A tropical cyclone and cold front forms between Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay on 10/25/24.
1 – Is it true that there will be a hurricane in Brazil this week?
This is true, but it will only form between Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay on Thursday, October 24 and will move quickly towards higher waters on Friday, October 25.
2 – What is a tropical cyclone?
It is in the atmosphere, outside the Earth's tropics, where the atmospheric pressure is very low, at various altitudes, and there is a circular movement of the air, in a clockwise direction (the same direction as the hands of an analog clock ).
The lower the air pressure, the more intense the movement of air from bottom to top. Near the low pressure zone. This means that cumulonimbus clouds capable of producing thunderstorms can easily form.
Additionally, when the air pressure in one area is very low, the difference with the air pressure in areas near the low center increases. The greater the difference, the greater the variability and the greater the wind speed.
Tropical cyclones are the most common weather systems in Uruguay, northern and eastern Argentina, and the Rio Grande do Sul, but they can also occur in cold fronts in Antarctica.
3 – Is this tropical cyclone strong?
So far, atmospheric simulations from computer forecast models, both the European Model (ECMWF) and the American Model (GFS), indicate that this tropical cyclone will be stronger.
The atmospheric pressure in the low pressure center associated with this typhoon should reach a value less than 1,000 hectopascals (hPa), a measure of atmospheric pressure. (Temperature can be measured in degrees Celsius, for example, air pressure in hectopascals.)
Technically, any A low pressure of 1000 hPa or less is considered a dangerous low pressure. Because they produce strong winds and form large clouds, with a large vertical scale, they are storm clouds.
4 – Is there a risk of this cyclone moving towards the south and southeast?
The hurricane will form on Thursday, October 24 between Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay, and on Friday, October 25, it will move quickly over the high seas, moving away from Brazil.
A tropical cyclone does not pass through the south or southeast of Brazil and does not advance along the south and southeast coast.
Tropical cyclone track
It is important to clarify that this tropical cyclone will not advance towards the coast of the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil.
The system is forecast to form on Thursday, October 24, and will be over the ocean near the coast of Rio Grande do Sul in the early hours of Friday, the 25th. During Friday, the tropical cyclone will move towards the high seas, still over the Rio Grande do Sul, always moving away from the continent.
Photo: Climatempo
Estimated positions of tropical cyclones on October 24 and 25, 2024 (Source: Viento)
As the cyclone moves out to sea, its effects weaken over land and near the coast. Winds will weaken in areas near southern Brazil throughout Friday as the cyclone gradually retreats toward the ocean.
Therefore, this tropical cyclone will not pass the coast of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro or Espiritu Santo.
storm wind
This new tropical cyclone, which is expected to form between Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay on Thursday, has the potential to produce strong winds regardless of the occurrence of rain.
The possibility of wind gusts of 70 to 90 km/h directly associated with this tropical cyclone should be considered during Thursday, especially over Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. This assessment is preliminary and will be reevaluated as the storm develops.
However, the effects of the tropical cyclone wind circulation can go beyond these two states and be felt in the western and southern regions of Paraná, Paraguay, and western and southern Mato Grosso do Sul.
Much of Paraná, São Paulo and the states of Rio de Janeiro and Sul de Minas could feel strong winds on Friday associated with the movement of the hurricane, which is already over the open sea and moving offshore.
rough seas
Additionally, seas will be rough as the tropical cyclone passes toward the southern tip of Brazil. This is a very common situation. Strong winds generated by tropical cyclones cause turbulence in the oceans and create wavesThis increases the risk of a possible hangover.
Surf is therefore expected to increase along the south and southeast coast this weekend.
During Thursday, October 24, The Rough seas and rising tides Mainly to start observing along the coast of Rio Grande do Sul, but throughout the day the agitation in the sea also extends to the maritime areas of the southern region, São Paulo and the coast of Rio de Janeiro.
On Thursday, waves are not yet expected to increase significantly off the coasts of Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro.
On Friday and especially the weekend, The wave height On the coasts of the southern region, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and southern Espiritu Santo, although the tropical cyclone is already far from the Brazilian coast. has Hangover risk.
Seas are expected to be rough early next week.
