This is to be expected in foreign policy

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Donald Trump's personnel decisions are causing uproar and fear. The biggest exceptions are the two most important positions in foreign policy. what does that mean?

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After Donald Trump won the election again, a central question was: Was he better prepared than he was in 2016, when he himself did not expect to succeed? After the first ten tumultuous days, the conclusion was clear: he was or wasn't! He and his advisers have announced in an almost fitful manner who should hold which position in the new administration.

Some things were foreseeable, like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy going to use “lawn mowers” ​​to cut the efficiency of the US government. It was no surprise that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was appointed Secretary of Health and Human Services. That doesn’t make the anti-vaccination activist’s personality any less problematic, even if he represents some semi-sensible ideas.

According to media reports, Michael Walz will serve as national security adviser.Image: trapezoid

There are also decisions that even make Trump’s allies shudder. This involves designated Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or “MAGA” convert Tulsi Gabbard, who is supposed to coordinate the efforts of the U.S. Secret Service. Both men had neither the experience nor the qualifications required for the job.

'Sexual terror' in the judiciary

In the case of Gabbard, a Putin admirer, there are even concerns that she might pass intelligence information to Russia. The low point so far, however, was the appointment of Matt Gaetz as attorney general. In our case, he would be labeled a “sexual deviant.” It remains to be seen whether the Senate will have the courage to deny this lunatic's confirmation.

In stark contrast, the two men who will hold the top foreign policy office: incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio will serve as secretary of state, while Congressman Mike Walz — who, like Rubio, is from Florida — will Serves as advisor to national security officials. His formal appointment remains to be determined.

“Slightly less bad”

They seem to be the “wise ones” in the presidential-elect’s madhouse. Few doubt that Rubio and Walz have the skills to do their jobs. In Europe they are viewed with some relief, but not without reservation. “They're a little better than others,” a European diplomat in Washington told Politico.

After all, Marco Rubio was a co-author of a law designed to make it harder for the president to leave NATO. Donald Trump flirted with it during his first term. On foreign policy, however, Rubio and Walz have gone in different directions. Both are known as particularly fierce rivals in China.

Distracted by China

The Trump administration’s focus may shift to Asia. Barack Obama already had this in mind, but he was absorbed by other war zones (Afghanistan, Iraq). Even now, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are distracting the United States from China, which is absolutely in Beijing's interest.

During the campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly declared that he wanted to end both wars, including the one in Ukraine, “within 24 hours.” Shortly before the election, in a well-received article in The Economist, designated security adviser Mike Waltz and Georgetown University political scientist Matthew Kroenig describes how this happens.

Attack Russia?

As far as Ukraine is concerned, Russian President Vladimir Putin should be brought to the negotiating table and tough measures taken if necessary, such as the U.S.'s attempt to block clandestine Russian oil exports. Unlike Joe Biden or Olaf Scholz, Walz and Kronig have also not ruled out providing weapons for an attack on Russia.

Donald Trump's relationship with China has oscillated between disgust and admiration for leader Xi Jinping.Image source: Associated Press

This may explain why Moscow has reacted rather conservatively to Donald Trump's return to the White House. It's unclear what will happen if Putin doesn't cooperate. The idea was to hand over conquered territories to him. Ukraine will have to give up its membership of NATO for 20 years, in return for a massive rearmament by the United States.

Netanyahu is an obstacle

Thoughts about the Middle East are similarly scattered. Waltz and Kroenig called for an end to the war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon “as soon as possible” and to strengthen deterrence against Iran. The United States should maintain a military presence in the region but otherwise divert its resources to the Indo-Pacific.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be an obstacle. He is said to want the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to continue “endlessly” to maintain his power. He is likely to receive support from Pete Hegseth, U.N. Ambassador Elise Stefanik and incoming ambassador to Jerusalem Mike Huckabee.

Musk meets with Iranian ambassador

In interviews, the evangelical former Arkansas governor appeared open to annexing the West Bank, something America's progressive Jews fear. Hegseth, the designated defense secretary, has taken a more pro-Israel stance. Among his many tattoos are symbols from the Crusader era.

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeed Irawani, reportedly met with Elon Musk.Image: trapezoid

On Thursday, however, The New York Times' report about a meeting between Trump confidant Elon Musk and Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeed Irawani, caused a stir. There is no official confirmation, also because the United States and Iran have no diplomatic relations. Iran, however, described Monday's encounter as “positive.”

hope for stability

This could be a sign of Donald Trump's desire to work toward peace in the region and Ukraine. “When stability returns to Europe and the Middle East, the United States can finally prioritize China,” write Mike Walz and Matthew Kronig. This is also to prevent attacks on Taiwan.

However, the president, old and new, has expressed ambivalence on this point in the past. When it comes to China, he wavers between sanctions and enthusiasm for ruler Xi Jinping. In Ukraine and Gaza/Lebanon, the ugly reality may be much more complex than the rosy illusions of peace.

It would not be surprising if the erratic Trump keeps trouble spots for himself or his neighbors. It remains to be seen how long Marco Rubio and Mike Walz will stay in the madhouse. The security adviser position, in particular, was an ejection seat under Trump. During his first term, four people sat on him.