This is the current status of the parties involved

With a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, Olaf Scholz clears the way for new elections in February. Friedrich Merz remains the most popular candidate, but his campaign got off to a rocky start.

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In some democracies, confidence votes are a popular tool to “test” governments. In France or Italy it's almost a ritual. This question is rarely asked in Germany, and the last time it was asked was nearly 20 years ago. In May 2005, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder instigated the dissolution of the Bundestag and the holding of new elections.

Now that time has come again, with SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz once again clearing the way for new elections with a vote of confidence. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will wait for some time before dissolving parliament, which must be dissolved no earlier than 60 days before the agreed election date of February 23, 2025.

All seats in the Bundestag were occupied on Monday as a result of the confidence vote.Image: trapezoid

Before that, there had been some level of rioting. Some people worry that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) will act as a “system destroyer” and help Scholz's red-green minority government, which continues to govern after the FDP's traffic light exit, gain a majority in the Bundestag, thereby defeating new election plans.

Two “triggers”

That's why two “safeguards” were added to Monday afternoon's election proceedings. Voting is not done anonymously, but by name, which is why the AfD cannot “hide” itself. The Greens proposed abstention, which would prevent the SPD from gaining a majority in the Bundestag even with the support of the Alternative for Germany.

The path to the unpopular winter campaign is now clear. All parties have already made adjustments to this. So far, there has been little progress in the investigation. The CDU/CSU clearly tops the list with a support rate of just over 30%, followed by the AfD with a support rate of just under 20%. The Social Democrats and Greens will certainly succeed, but the situation for other parties will be tense.

Another three-party government?

Since no one wants to ally with the right-wing extremist AfD, a black-red or black-green government is likely to emerge. Much depends on the smaller parties, mainly the FDP, Left and BSW. If they get to the Bundestag, it could create a three-party government again, which no one really wants after the traffic light disaster.

This creates considerable uncertainty, but also an exciting campaign. But what about the shape of German parties?

SPD

Olaf Scholz and Boris Pistorius after the Willy Brandt House decision on the candidacy of Prime Minister.Image: trapezoid

The German chancellor's party has endured a row over whether Olaf Scholz should run again as top candidate or the more popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. This neither helps nor hurts it in surveys; the SPD has been in third place, but is more or less under pressure from the Greens, depending on the institution.

Dropping to fourth place would be a nightmare for many comrades. In the election plan unveiled last week, they want to reduce taxes on the broad population (“more net tax deducted from the gross”, that's what Germany means). The tax cut was intended to boost electric vehicle sales, but sales fell sharply after the financing bonus ended.

Olaf Scholz was the most unpopular chancellor in the history of the Federal Republic. Just over a third of people surveyed by DTV 2's Political Barometer thought the 66-year-old was doing a “fairly good” job. On the question of chancellor, however, he is almost even with his CDU rival Friedrich Merz. Scholz may not be entirely wrong in insisting on this point.

CDU/CSU

Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder (right) are just a heart and a soul on the surface.Image: trapezoid

Friedrich Merz dreamed of becoming chancellor for years, even decades. If he didn't make it, it would be a blast. But even though Mertz is 69, he has never been in office and therefore has never participated in such a campaign. The coalition candidate quickly made some mistakes and stumbling blocks.

“What's wrong with him?” read one provocative comment in the headline on t-online.de. He is therefore flirting with a black-green government, which many federal politicians, especially in the east, are fiercely opposed to. In Sandra Meischberger's ARD talk show, Merz even left an open mind on whether Robert Habeck could serve as economy minister again.

Bavarian Prime Minister and CSU leader Markus Söder has also been waging a polemic with the Black-Green alliance for months. The powerful man from Franconia sees himself as the coalition's only suitable candidate for chancellor, but he has been “at the bottom” of the much larger CDU since the 2021 elections. Many blame him for the failure.

At the time, Souder repeatedly made fun of prime ministerial candidate Armin Laschet. Now he's competing against Friedrich Merz. “Der Spiegel” said: “There is a ghost haunting the CDU, and it speaks Frankish.” Söder's trump card is the CSU's good public approval rating in Bavaria. He'll be in a good position if February performs significantly better nationally than around the league.

german choice association

The right-wing extremist party is considered unfit to govern, but it is doing its best to live up to that reputation. Co-chairman Tino Krupala declared Russia the victor in the war in Ukraine in Die Welt, and Thuringian party leader Bjorn Hock advocated at the state party conference the creation of a “stretch from Lisbon to Vladivostok” The Eurasian Economic Community in Divostok”.

Many believe Hawke is the “secret” leader of the AfD, a reference to former French head of state Charles de Gaulle, but this is entirely consistent with the Kremlin's narrative. Despite this, the Alternative for Germany is performing well in opinion polls. In a survey by Bild, the top candidate Alice Wedel was even on par with Friedrich Merz when it came to chancellorship.

Green vegetables

The Greens were outright hated by large sections of the population, especially in East Germany. They are largely responsible for this, including the phasing out of nuclear energy and Deputy Prime Minister Robert Harbeck's heating law, which in its first version was interpreted as an attack on small homeowners.

Despite this, the Green Party nominated Habeck as its candidate for prime minister. Now they want to use subsidies to burnish their image as the awakening party of high-income earners. Just like three years ago, you are providing climate finance to low- and moderate-income people. Providing charging vouchers to low-income people will boost the sales of electric vehicles.

Liberal Democratic Party/Lin Ke/BSW

Gregor Gisi should once again save the left from destruction.Image: trapezoid

They are weak candidates in federal elections. The Liberal Democrats are fighting the D-Day invasion and have published a strategy document seeking to break up the traffic light government. Party leader Christian Lindner, a former finance minister, caused a stir by asking Germany to “dare to do more” against Musk and Mire.

The left has little chance. It failed to break the 5% threshold three years ago and was further weakened by the spin-off of Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Now she hopes three direct mandates will bring her back to the Bundestag, as she will in 2021. Gregor Gysi, who at the age of almost 77 is running again in the Berlin constituency, is a guarantee of this.

BSW, on the other hand, fluctuates between 4% and 8% in surveys. This volatility coincides with the party's short history of low membership and Sahra Wagenknecht's tortuous path between opposition and government participation following her electoral success in the eastern state. In the end, “Real” won.