This is how much it costs Europe

Europe's defense budgets will continue to grow due to threats from Russia and pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. Current NATO targets may increase. The question is: who should pay for this?

Remo Hess, Brussels/ch media

The bloody war in Ukraine has lasted for 1,000 days. Despite all diplomatic efforts, the gunfire doesn't appear to be subsiding anytime soon. Even so, the threat to Europe from imperialist Russia under President Vladimir Putin remains.

European countries have responded and increased defense spending. Including Canada, Europe currently spends more than 400 billion euros on defense, equivalent to half of the United States, the world's most powerful military power. This year, for the first time, they met NATO's goal of investing at least 2% of economic output in defence.

But this is not enough. “It's great that we have achieved the two percent target. But it is clearly not enough,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned yesterday at a meeting of EU defense ministers in Brussels. Rutte must meet the demands of future US President Donald Trump. It's no secret that he wanted to see more from the Europeans.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte inspects military equipment.Image: trapezoid

Even Willy Brandt, the “Eastern political” prime minister, spent more than three percent

How many? Trump has said: NATO's target should be raised from 2% to 3%. This is not unrealistic. German NATO General Christian Badia confirmed in a recent interview that progress is heading towards three percent.

In fact, European NATO countries have gone further: in 2024, Poland will spend 4.1% of its economic power on the military. The proportions in the two Baltic countries of Estonia and Latvia, as well as in Greece, exceed 3%.

But what matters for Europe is what heavyweights like Germany, France and Britain do. Because of its size, its defense spending is particularly important.

To put this into perspective: Germany’s entire defense budget this year is about 80 billion euros. If Berlin reached 3%, it would raise $120 billion per year for the Bundeswehr. It will account for about a quarter of the entire federal budget and is the largest single program after social spending. France's defense spending will increase to more than 90 billion euros. Over 100 billion in the UK. Hundreds of billions of euros of additional spending are being spent across Europe.

These are huge amounts. But looking back, the Cold War standard was three percent. In the 1980s until shortly before reunification, Germany's military budget was approximately 3.2%. Even Willy Brandt, the Social Democratic “Peace Chancellor” who won the 1971 Nobel Peace Prize for his “Eastern Policy”, invested more than 3% in military deterrence.

To fight Russia, Europe must unite

The key question is how Europe's transformation should be financed amid tight budgets. In any case, redistribution and austerity measures seem impossible if you want to maintain social cohesion.

Germany is therefore debating whether to ease the debt brake. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to use the “emergency situation” caused by the war in Ukraine as justification for the move. However, the Liberal Democrats, who left the coalition government, stifled the discussion. No matter: the future chancellor, whether it is Olaf Scholz, Friedrich Merz or someone else, will have to solve the problem of raising funds.

Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.Image: trapezoid

As a result, some Germans are looking to Brussels. In fact, the European Commission plans to change the rules for the allocation of cohesion contributions so that projects of a defense and security nature can also be supported. The size of this fund is approximately 390 billion euros between 2021 and 2027, making it by far the largest EU fund outside agricultural aid. The problem is: they go to economically weaker EU countries, not to Germany, Italy or France.

Another idea is to take on new, shared EU debt. This already applies to Corona. The Baltic states, Greece, Poland and France will support it. On the other side are Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, which have traditionally been incapable of mutualizing debt.

Whatever the financing situation, Europe cannot avoid one thing: not just doing more, but doing more together. Waste from uncoordinated armaments programs is a long-standing problem. Everyone buys their own tanks, their own planes, their own drones. In order to change this situation, the EU established the position of Defense Commissioner. It should provide much-needed efficiency. But it's doubtful the government will let him do so. (aargauerzeitung.ch)

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