This could happen if the government falls

The French government does not have a majority in parliament and has now called for a vote of no confidence. The first voices have already called for new elections.

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier linked the passage of the social budget to the government's survival. Populists on the right and left are determined to overthrow the government through a vote of no confidence. This brings the threat of a new political crisis to France.

Overview:

Why is a vote of no confidence imminent?

Since snap elections last June, the Paris government no longer has a majority in the National Assembly. Parliament was divided into three warring groups. In order to pass the budget law, the Prime Minister's only option is to apply Article 49.3 of the Constitution. This allowed the bill to be passed without a vote in parliament. To do this, the government must survive a subsequent vote of no confidence.

Barnier took advantage of the opportunity on Monday. A vote of no confidence is not expected until Wednesday at the earliest.

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier may lose confidence in parliament on Wednesday.Image: trapezoid

When does the vote take place?

A vote of no confidence could take place within two days at the earliest. There must be 48 hours between application and voting. Members of the National Assembly must debate and vote on the motion within three days of the deadline.

Are the results of the vote clear?

This is not entirely clear. However, a majority of MPs are expected to withdraw their confidence in the government, thereby overthrowing it. The left bloc, made up of communists, greens, socialists and left-wingers, submitted the application. Their votes are considered relatively safe.

The right-wing nationalists around Marine Le Pen initially tolerated the government. But now Le Pen has announced that he will also submit a motion of no confidence and agree to the left-wing motion. The opposition parties combined to obtain the necessary supermajority of 289 votes.

What happens after a vote of no confidence?

If the government loses a vote of no confidence, it will govern in an acting capacity. President Emmanuel Macron must then appoint a new prime minister. However, there is no specific date yet. After parliament was dissolved in June, Macron extended his term until September. In theory, Macron can re-elect Barnier as Prime Minister and reshuffle the ministerial team.

The appointment of left-wing government heads such as former Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve is also under discussion. This will take into account the results of new elections last July. However, even a left-wing prime minister would not have a majority in parliament. Expert government is also conceivable. New parliamentary elections will not be held until July 2025 at the earliest.

Does a vote of no confidence also apply to President Macron?

No. A vote of no confidence applies only to the government. President Emmanuel Macron is not a member of the cabinet. At the same time, the collapse of the government will also put pressure on him. Because he appointed Michel Barnier as prime minister, his centrist party also took power. Le Pen and the left may hope to persuade Macron to call for early presidential elections by overthrowing the government. The actual vote won't take place until 2027.

What about budget law?

In fact, the government must pass three budget laws through parliament before the end of this year. The social budget is the first of these. It is thought unlikely that the new government will pass the three laws in December.

Right-wing extremist Marine Le Pen wants to run in the 2027 presidential election, but first she has to go through a process.Image: trapezoid

However, it may introduce a special law allowing it to continue on the basis of the 2024 budget. If there is no majority support, Macron can take emergency measures under Article 16 of the constitution. This would temporarily halt the normal functioning of democracy.

Who will be the next president?

The next presidential election won't actually be held until 2027. But now there are initial voices in the government camp suggesting that the president resign and hold an early election. Macron has so far ruled out that possibility.

Macron cannot run again after serving two terms. Le Pen hopes to become president but may be barred from running in March over a trial for misappropriating EU funds. It is unclear whether RN party leader Jordan Bardella, 29, will run.

In the government camp, former prime ministers Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, among others, are preparing for possible presidential candidacy. Left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon may also want to run again. Maybe Socialist former president François Hollande will try again.

Sources used:

(Hongkong)

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