WThe Kozhi Sabra family fled Israeli bombardment last October in the southern Lebanese city of Marjayoun, a suburb of Beirut, where a monthly stipend of dollars from Hezbollah made them fear starvation. As they were displaced a second time, a wave of Israeli offensives in south Beirut into the mountains surrounding the capital, even the continued distribution of food, food parcels and cleaning supplies from companies linked to the group kept them afloat.
“They look after us unbelievably through everything that's going on. They never leave us alone,” said Hind Sabra, whose name has been changed. There are three families in their household of 14, each receiving a monthly stipend of $200 (£150) in cash, discounted medicine and food packages containing rice, oil, tuna and beans.
Food, medicine and cash are all part of a long-held support network that has thrived amid Hezbollah's years of financial crisis, including a functional bank, a fund that cares for families of those killed in the war and a social security system responsible for distributing cash payments to the tens of thousands displaced earlier this year. to a Hezbollah official.
For the past two decades, Hezbollah has dominated the various factions that make up Lebanon's fractured and sectarian politics, as well as exerting control over key industries in the south, such as agriculture and construction. Chatham House's Lina Khatib said the group's status “has grown to influence and control the state. From within and outside Lebanese government institutions”.
Western countries including the United States and the United Kingdom have imposed economic sanctions on Hezbollah and consider it a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, the group, which includes a paramilitary organization and a political party, maintains a support base mainly among Lebanon's working-class Shiite Muslim community, who view Hezbollah as the guardian of their interests and an essential defense against Israeli military might.
Members of Lebanon's Shiite sect, displaced by a dramatic increase in Israeli bombing across southern Lebanon in recent weeks, said they hoped Hezbollah would protect them, rebuild their homes and provide them with compensation in the future. But with more than a million people now displaced, few signs of an imminent ceasefire according to the Lebanese government, and Israeli assassinations targeting Hezbollah's leadership, the current escalation could test Hezbollah's ability to support its base in the long term.
Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on the Lebanese people to “stand up and take back your country” from Hezbollah, signaling a shift in Israel's intentions in Lebanon. Rather than attacking Hezbollah's presence in the south, Netanyahu suggested Israel may now seek to replace the country's political leadership.
“You have a chance to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a protracted war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we are seeing in Gaza,” he told the country, hinting at broader intentions that could spell greater destruction. Long fighting period.
Sam Heller, an analyst at the think tank Century International, said it depended on how far Israeli forces were able to advance in southern Lebanon, as well as Israeli leaders' own clarity about their intentions. If Israel were to reoccupy parts of southern Lebanon, leaving hundreds of thousands of people who make up Hezbollah's support base homeless, “that would cause real suffering and I would weaken the organization and significantly complicate its capacity.” These people,” he said.
Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 killed nearly 1,200 people in Lebanon and injured more than 4,400, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross, a third of them children. About 900,000 people were displaced during the month-long war.
Concerns that Israeli offensives could last longer than the 2006 war and cause more damage worry Mona Talib, a 42-year-old teacher who fled Dahiyeh for the safety of the mountains surrounding Beirut. Security. But Lebanon's Shiite community has placed faith in Hezbollah and its record of reconstruction since fighting ended in 2006, citing what he described as his “deep faith” in the organization's eventual victory.
“Even if I lose my house, I know it will be rebuilt. It may take a long time, but eventually it will happen,” he said. “People have great hope that their homes will be rebuilt in the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon or the Bekaa Valley. People go back to the past, they remember what happened to them, and they create their future.
Talib said he witnessed the experience of a close friend who lived in the heart of Dahiyeh, where “the whole building was destroyed” in the 2006 war. “They got their house back. I met her in the old house and saw the new one with my own eyes. I saw and knew someone who lived it. Simple,” she said.
Hashem Haider, who heads the Lebanese government's regional development agency, known as the Council for South Lebanon, was less certain. He said Israeli bombings that leveled towns near Israel's de facto border made it “difficult to detect damage.” As for whether Hezbollah would later compensate those who lost their homes, as promised recently, he said, “Honestly, I don't know.”
Ahmed Nuredin, 26, whose name has also been changed, said he had been staying in a makeshift shelter run by Hezbollah for a few days, and while it contained essentials such as food, water and medicine, the place was full. It made the experience so unpleasant that he moved elsewhere.
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Like Talib, Nureddin now owes money to Kurt al-Hassan, a microfinance institution and de facto bank sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2007 for its ties to Hezbollah.
In sanctioning Hezbollah's seven “shadow bankers” in 2021, the Treasury said Kurt al-Hassan “disguises himself as a non-governmental organization” while providing banking services that support Hezbollah and evade regulations, and “hoard hard currency. The Lebanese Economy”.
Noureddine said it did not care about the required repayment of the $6,000 loan from Kurt al-Hasan, meaning it would start asking for repayment in wartime.
“They can be flexible about payment,” he said. “They are very honest and they fear God. They do not charge interest.”
Talib, who took out a $3,000 loan, cites people he knows as the cash value of gold deposits destroyed in airstrikes two decades ago and is convinced Qard al-Hassan won't repay them until the fighting is over.
“People trust this company. “Confidence is more important than security,” he said, adding that he doubted that the debt would begin to be repaid even if the fighting continued for months, and Israeli airstrikes continued to hit the area of south Beirut where the branch is located.
The Israeli government has long viewed its Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, as a threat. Rockets have been fired into northern Israel since October 8, the day after a Hamas attack in southern Israel that killed around 1,200 people.
Israel initially said the attacks on Hezbollah were aimed at ensuring the return of thousands of Israelis to their homes near the border with Lebanon.
Talib said Lebanon's displaced Shiite community, living in makeshift shelters and empty apartments, could face the immediate trauma of displacement in the short term, but saw Hezbollah's track record of rebuilding much of southern Lebanon and fighting Israel's earlier occupation as evidence. It can take care of them for a long time. “This party, this special party, gave them the opportunity to free their land, go back to their villages and enjoy their lives – wherever it loses its leaders, they will be with it,” he said.
“Even if they lose the war, they won't lose the war,” he added. “People trust the party based on their previous experiences. There is no war without defeats, but the winner is the one who wins the last battle.
