These solutions will appear in 2025

Joe Biden approves air strikes on Russian territory. Vladimir Putin tweaks nuclear doctrine and launches medium-range missiles. And there's Volodymyr Zelensky's willingness to negotiate: There were many signs this week of a turning point in the war in Ukraine.

Boyan Stura/ch media

This week, Russia's war in Ukraine reached a turning point — and not just because it marked the 1,000th day since the full-scale invasion began. In many ways, the events of the past few days mark the likely future course of war in 2025.

Continue to penetrate the enemy on the Western Front

A Russian medium-range missile struck Dnipro on Thursday morning, the latest escalation in Vladimir Putin's war strategy, and his intentions are clear: Fearful and skeptical in the West as Russia inches closer to the nuclear threshold A rift appeared between them. And supporters of Ukraine should deepen to become.

By fomenting “nuclear psychosis”, especially in Europe, further arms deliveries to Ukraine will be questioned and, at best, blocked. This was a time-tested Cold War-era KGB tactic to infiltrate the enemy. It is worth noting that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the Pentagon’s news that Russia warned the United States about launching intermediate-range missiles.

The Institute for War Studies (ISW), an American analysis center, believes that this is a logical continuation of Putin’s “red line remarks”. The Russian president can escalate the war at will or according to his own military needs – “totally independent of Western decisions.” The latest is the deployment of North Korean troops or the recent large-scale air strikes on civilian targets and energy infrastructure. However, for propaganda purposes this was always blamed on the West; coupled with the threat of further “punishment” such as extending Russian missile targeting to European NATO countries.

Convincing the United States of Ukraine's Failure

So far, the red line for Vladimir Putin's threats has always been bluff: If the West, after long debate and hesitation, still supplies rocket launchers, tanks or fighter jets to Ukraine, then, according to the ISW, the Kremlin will only have to “keep the goal in mind” “Push the pillar further” threatening words.

Therefore, even if Joe Biden approves the use of ATACMS-guided missiles for attacks on Russian territory, which Putin says is the main reason for launching intermediate-range missiles, “there is no real sign that the likelihood of a Russian nuclear strike has increased.” The ISW went on to say that Ukraine had previously attacked Russian targets with its own drones and short-range missiles. Eastern Europe expert Alexander Duboy said in an interview with CH Media that if a nuclear strike is launched, Putin will immediately “lose most of his options for action” in the Ukrainian war, which is also political. As a result, ISW calls Putin's handling of red lines “increasingly inconsistent.”

Alex Zdan, a US Republican strategist, said this week in an interview about Putin: “Anyone who has to bluff that much in poker usually has a bad hand.” Extrapolating from this, Moscow’s latest escalation may actually be a sign of military weakness. Suffering horrific losses in his advance in eastern Ukraine, the real danger of a devastating blow on his territory, and a deteriorating economic situation, Putin is now pushing for a propaganda war to keep newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump Believe that further efforts will be futile. Support Ukraine.

Find the most advantageous negotiating position

All this is a good indication that the war in 2025 will continue to be a military one under the current framework, coupled with the question of which side will lose momentum first: desperately dependent on North Korean soldiers and ammunition, as well as Russian and Iranian missile technology, or almost entirely Western arms supplies to Ukraine?

At the same time, the chances of launching real ceasefire negotiations are better than at any time since the summer of 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared ready for talks in an interview with conservative US broadcaster Fox, where he addressed one of the most militarily critical situations since the battle of Kiev. This may be a further motivation, as Gallup poll results show that for the first time a slim majority of Ukrainians (52%) desire an early end to the war and negotiations.

For his country, everything now depends on “continued support from the United States.” Trump has a way of convincing Putin to end the war: “It won't be easy, but he's much more powerful than Putin,” Zelensky replied when asked whether Trump could get the Russian president to negotiate.

Meanwhile, the New York Times quoted Roman Kostenko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s defense committee, as saying. During the negotiations, this will prioritize future security over the full restoration of Ukrainian territory, which was previously an absolute no-no for Zelensky’s government.

Whether that alone will be enough to bring Putin to the negotiating table is questionable. Instead, the Russian president is currently doing everything in his power to achieve eventual military victory over Ukraine, which seems within reach. But neither Moscow nor Kyiv doubts that the new US president will be a driving force behind peace initiatives. Both sides are trying to influence Trump in their own way.

Ukrainians deeply disillusioned with Joe Biden's administration can even have some hope that the end to the war Trump promised during his campaign will not unilaterally harm their interests. The new US president remains low-key on the specifics of his peace plan.

But in an interview with Fox this summer, Trump at least revealed his negotiating strategy: “I would say to Zelensky, you're not going to get anything more, you have to make a deal. I would say to Putin, If you don’t make a deal, I’ll give him (Zelensky; editor) a lot.”

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