“The North Koreans will not decide the war in Ukraine”

interview

Thousands of North Korean soldiers are on their way to fight in Ukraine. Watson talks to military expert Marcel Berni about what Putin's purpose is and what unexpected help Ukraine may now receive.

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Mr. Berni, North Korean troops support Russia in the war in Ukraine. Why would Putin prefer to let others fight for him instead of mobilizing more Russians?
Marcel Berni: Since the war began, Putin has relied on mercenaries and foreign fighters. This could mean that Russia has a recruitment problem, or that Putin has been silent on mobilizing Russian conscripts. North Korean soldiers have made it possible for him to fight a longer war. Putin certainly wants to use this to solve Russia's personnel shortage problem and reduce his own losses.

What is the combat experience of the Koreans?
Kim Jong-un's troops have no actual combat experience. The last war was against South Korea in the 1950s. Soldiers are certainly well-trained and disciplined, but they are also under pre-emptive pressure before preparing for action.

Military expert Marcel Berni. Image: zvg

Why?
They had to travel long distances in a short time to fight Ukraine. The soldiers will be more than 6,000 kilometers away from their usual reality. They will be issued Russian passports and weapons, and although interpreters are planned, they will face language and cultural barriers.

There has been some tension since the first few days since the North Koreans arrived. According to information intercepted by Ukraine from Russian soldiers, they were unhappy with the North Koreans and described them as “chaotic and poorly trained.”
Judging from North Korea's training level, it will definitely send well-trained soldiers with extremely hierarchical command tactics. It would be a strength if you could send willing and loyal soldiers to the front lines. Alternatively, North Korean troops could be deployed in the hinterland, allowing Russian soldiers to move to the front lines.

Speaking of loyalty: The West believes that no North Korean likes living in North Korea. Wouldn't life be better for North Korean soldiers if they deserted and surrendered to Ukrainian troops?
For Putin, a mass surrender of North Korean soldiers would be a huge shame, which is why he definitely wants to prevent this from happening. I believe that in this first step only North Korean soldiers who have been thoroughly ideological and who are not in danger of deserting will be sent.

It is unclear whether North Korean troops will be deployed on the Ukrainian front or to repel a Ukrainian offensive on Russian territory. Troops were spotted in Russia's Kursk region, which is partially occupied by Ukrainians.
As a first step, the North Koreans were used to eliminate an embarrassing situation for Russia near Kursk. The goal was to drive out the Ukrainians before winter arrived. If the plan succeeds, North Korea will deploy troops in Donbas and other front lines in Ukraine.

Blocked by dictators: North Korea, capital Pyongyang.Image: trapezoid

Does it make sense for Kim Putin to send 12,000 North Korean troops by December?
It is like a drop of water in the ocean. From a military perspective, the North Koreans will not decide the war. But from a diplomatic perspective, the decision is significant because it will indicate how the international community will react to it. Therefore, I view the first deployment of North Korean soldiers as a test run for Putin and Kim Jong Un.

What happens if the trial run is successful?
Cooperation between Putin and Kim Jong Un is likely to deepen, with more North Korean soldiers being sent to Ukraine in the future. As a result, both dictators are feeling their way forward and trying to create win-win situations.

How strong is the alliance between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un?
This is difficult to estimate. On the one hand, North Korea and Russia have reached an agreement since this year that requires the two countries to help each other in the event of war. But Russia is not known for keeping its promises. In the past, they abandoned Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

What about the other side?
Both countries benefited from the agreement. Russia receives weapons, ammunition and soldiers from one of the largest armies in the world. North Korea also receives funds as well as Russian oil and gas. Kim Jong Un also wants Russia to support him in evading Western sanctions and pursuing his own nuclear program.

Is carpooling about convenience or eternal solidarity? Kim and Putin. Image: trapezoid

It will now be exciting to see how South Korea reacts to North Korean forces in Europe. Will South Korea, one of the world's largest arms producers, now more actively support Ukraine?
This is a huge unknown. South Korea could react in exactly the same way as North Korea and send troops to Europe – but in support of Ukraine. But I think South Korea might consider providing lethal weapons. South Korea has a huge arsenal of weapons, especially artillery and armored personnel carriers, which will be of great help to the Ukrainians.

Could South Korea be more useful to Ukraine than North Korea is to Russia?
In extreme cases, yes. In addition to nuclear weapons, South Korea provides more technology to Ukraine than North Korea provides to Russia. But not that far yet.

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