The end is near – will the election be brought forward?

The Berlin League has long been playing for time, but now there are growing signs that it may soon end prematurely. Possible causes of rupture loom.

Hansjörg Friedrich Müller, Berlin/ch media

The weakness of Germany's traffic light union has long been a painful sight. There are now some signs that the unpopular alliance of convenience between the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals may be in its final throes. In fact, Germans were supposed to elect a new Bundestag in less than a year, but there is now speculation that an early election will be held on March 9.

The common ground between the three coalition partners has long been exhausted, a fact that was most evident on Tuesday: the day saw two summits of government and business representatives, one in the Chancellery and the other in the conference room of the Bundestag with members of the FDP parliamentary group.

The behavior of those in power is somewhat rash

The FDP summit must be seen as an act of revenge for liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner: after Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz invited entrepreneurs without consulting Lindner and Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck and trade unions, the finance minister invited mid-sized businesses and crafts representing larger businesses to a counter-summit, something Scholz ignored.

The government's approach was somewhat rash: meetings like Scholz's and Lindner's were convened at a time of crisis. Germany is certainly in this situation, but the goal of such summits is usually for governments, employers and unions to work together to overcome a crisis.

However, it would be difficult for Scholz and Lindner to pursue this intention seriously because agreement on such a course of action can only be achieved if all actors – including the government – ​​know what they want before negotiating. As a result, competing meetings remain without concrete results. They look like an early campaign.

The coalition partners made their case known at the summit: Scholz wants to portray himself as a carefree chancellor for whom the economy is a top priority; Lindner is working hard to carve out his image as a Friends of small and medium-sized companies that cannot easily move production abroad. Furthermore, he considered himself a strict, frugal chancellor.

Habeck cannot stand idly by either: he is promoting a “German Fund” worth hundreds of billions of euros, through which he wants to undermine the debt brake, a concern for Lindner. Habeck is also planning a summit of his own: the Green Party politician hopes to meet business representatives at the end of November.

What's new is that Scholz, Habeck and Lindner are openly arguing. So far, they have left the issue to their party colleagues in the second or third row, always showing respect for each other. Now the chancellor has accused two other people of using the theater stage.

The survival of 'traffic lights' may depend on the Liberal Democrats

The government is about to face its next (and potentially decisive) test: coalition partners must agree on a 2025 budget by November 15. Given that the total amount exceeds €500 billion, the fact that up to $1 billion cannot be spent as planned should not be an insurmountable obstacle. There is some evidence, however, that “traffic lights” don't survive negotiations: you break the alliance because you want to break it. Then you will find the reason.

Especially for the FDP, which according to current opinion polls has to worry about its position in the Bundestag, the question arises: what will benefit it and what will harm it more: holding on or blowing up the coalition. Maybe eventually voters will reward those who get the country off the road early. “We can find something better than death everywhere,” say the animals in the fairy tale about the city musicians of Bremen. After three years of coalition government, some German liberals may feel similarly. (aargauerzeitung.ch)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once again urged Ukraine to join NATO when he met with the heads of government of the Nordic Council in Iceland.

Zelensky said in a speech in Reykjavik that Kyiv does not want to join NATO during Russia's ongoing war of aggression, but does want to receive an invitation to join NATO as a concrete sign. The speech was also posted on social network X.