The beneficiary is Friedrich Merz

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Germany's Traffic Light Union disbanded with great fanfare. Everything now points to CDU leader Friedrich Merz becoming chancellor – perhaps as early as January.

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That too! That's what many Germans were saying to themselves when the traffic light government of the Social Democrats, Greens and FDP collapsed on Wednesday night. The escalation in Berlin's government district, which popped up during a special broadcast about Donald Trump's US election victory, led to a rotation of programming staff at the network.

Bild first reported that Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP and finance minister, called for new elections for the joint committee. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) rejected the request and quickly ousted Lindner from the government. The pair made the accusations in separate media appearances. The Greens looked at all this with confusion.

All that's clear now is that the traffic light went out after three years. Almost no one regrets it. “It's all over and that's good” was the headline in Der Spiegel, the newspaper that initially welcomed the Alliance for Progress and defended it for a long time. At the same time, it was clear to everyone that the timing was not ideal given the uncertainty created by Trump’s election.

triggering alliance breakdown

In recent days, however, the end has loomed. It started with a paper by Christian Lindner, which set out financial and economic policy demands that were unacceptable to the Social Democrats and Greens. It was declared “confidential” but was still leaked to the press. Exactly which side is unclear, but the intent behind it is obvious.

The breakup of the alliance should be provoked. New elections will now take place. As explained on Wednesday, Scholz hopes to pass key laws by the end of this year and hold a Bundestag vote in March 2025. But it is the Green Party that he can most trust. All other parties have called for a swift vote of confidence in the Bundestag.

“There is absolutely no reason not to raise the question of confidence before January,” CDU leader and chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said on Thursday morning. He hopes to hold new elections as early as January 2025. The last time this happened was in 1987. No one old enough cares to remember the winter campaign as a rather unpleasant affair.

clarify conditions

Merz's timing still makes sense, given that the federal election was held around the same time as Donald Trump was sworn in in the United States. It is very important that the situation in Germany becomes clear as soon as possible. This is difficult enough given the fragmentation and various incompatibilities of the party landscape.

SPD

Olaf Scholz's combative performance on Wednesday night may have temporarily dispelled any doubts about his leadership. Co-chairman Saskia Esken said on RTL on Thursday that he will run again as a candidate for prime minister. But Scholz has a problem: Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is more popular among the population.

In the ARD German trend, the cheerful and hands-on Niedersache is the only top German politician with an approval rating of more than 50%. Depending on how the findings unfold, this may give the Social Democrats some food for thought. On Thursday, Scholz remained hawkish for now but would still be happy if an election were held in January.

Green vegetables

Robert Habeck and Annalena Berbock endorsed the state on Wednesday.Image: trapezoid

Between the appearances of Olaf Schulz and Christian Lindner in “Toxic”, Robert Habeck and Annalena Beerbock appeared in front of the media. The Green Party’s leadership is almost defiantly pro-state. The campaign casts a shadow here, too: the Greens, hated by many, are showing themselves to be responsible.

Their advantage is that they have a stable core of voters. They will certainly suffer defeat in the new elections, but they are safe in the Bundestag. Depending on the results, they hope to recommend themselves as coalition partners, including to the Alliance Party, despite threats from CSU leader Markus Söder to veto the black-green government.

liberal democrats

Christian Lindner's situation was much more difficult. In ARD Germany Trends, the FDP reaches 4%, which means it will miss the opportunity to enter the Bundestag. She suffered the same fate after her last participation in government with the CDU/CSU in the 2013 election, and Lindner had to step in as a savior in an emergency, something he did not want to experience again.

He has long resisted calls from Liberals to dissolve the coalition government. They think German voters will respect that. It is doubtful whether the calculation is valid. On Wednesday, Olaf Scholz, in a not-so-clumsy way, pinned the scapegoat role on Christian Lindner.

german choice association

The partly right-wing extremist party is brimming with confidence after its electoral success in three eastern German states: Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. Co-owner Alice Wedel and “Secret” boss Bjorn Hock are delighted with Donald Trump's election victory. But the cheers may get stuck in the Alternative for Germany's throat.

Trump's threat of punitive tariffs could hit Germany hard. The ifo economic institute calculates that they will cost the already struggling German economy 33 billion euros. This would not involve a large proportion of AfD voters, but the party could still be affected in the new election.

BSW

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is the second winner of the eastern elections. But now there is an internal dispute over government involvement. On Wednesday, exploratory talks for a “BlackBerry Alliance” with the CDU and SPD also failed in Saxony. One of the points of contention is peace with Russia.

Party founder Wagenknecht has taken a hard line on this issue and on the deployment of U.S. intermediate-range missiles in Germany, while supporters like Thuringia party leader Katja Wolf are more willing to compromise. The image suffers from this conflict. In the ARD Germany Trend, BSW is just above the 5% threshold.

CDU/CSU

The Coalition can sit back and watch. In the survey, they clearly came out on top. Things are going well for her candidacy and that of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He benefits not only from controversies between and within rivalries. His economic expertise will also benefit him in the current difficult situation.

One problem Meltz faces is his low popularity. Surveys show that a majority of Germans do not believe a coalition-led government can better solve the country's problems. And yet: If anyone benefited from traffic light chaos, it was Friedrich Merz. The doors of the Chancellery in Berlin were open to him.