SPD must replace Olaf Scholz

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Despite poor poll results, Olaf Scholz hopes to run again as a candidate for chancellor in the federal elections. The SPD leadership supports him, but the party base is “rumbling”.

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Olaf Scholz can appear aggressive if he wants to. On Wednesday, for example, he made his first government statement in the Bundestag after the traffic light coalition concluded. His appearance was the start of a 100-day campaign for new elections on February 23, 2025, which for example once again ruled out the delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

The reaction was intense. CDU leader and chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz described the government statement as a “fascinating moment”. The Prime Minister does not understand what is happening in the country. In line with this, the government expert committee “Wirtschaftsweise” predicted on Wednesday that the German economy will grow slightly in 2025.

What about Olaf Scholz? He is fearless. He is determined to run for chancellor again as the SPD candidate in February. The 66-year-old's poll ratings are abysmal. In Bild's ranking of Germany's top politicians, he was ranked 19th out of 20 politicians, behind Alice Weidel (AfD) and FDP leader Christian Lindner ( Scholz had it almost worse).

“Yes, there is a rumor”

The leadership of the Social Democrats remains (still) firm. Co-Chairmen Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil as well as Bundestag Parliamentary Group Leader Rolf Mützenich and new Secretary-General Martí Matthias Miersch has both confirmed that they want to stick with Scholz. However, given the poll numbers for the chancellor and the party, there is unrest at the grassroots level.

In the latest RTL/ntv Trend Barometer released on Tuesday, the SPD's approval rating was 16%. The Alliance's support is more than double that, at 33%. Some in the party fear Scholz's SPD will finish fourth in February, behind the AfD and the Greens. “Yes, there were complaints,” Rolf Mutzenic admitted on Tuesday on DTV 2's Haute Magazine.

“Who's going to tell the principal?”

For Der Spiegel, Germany's leading red-green media outlet, the situation is clear: “The Social Democrats need another candidate for chancellor. The sooner the better.” Another influential left-liberal voice, Die Zeit Also slowly moving away from Olaf Scholz. “Who told the Chancellor?” is the title of an analysis of his performance in the Bundestag.

However, the other party did not consider leaving voluntarily. Last Sunday, during an appearance on Caren Miosga's ARD talk show, Scholz was, as usual, devoid of self-criticism. He had no doubt that he would be nominated as a candidate for prime minister. He described the gap with the CDU/CSU in the survey as “a size that can be bridged”.

'Disastrous value'

However, in the RTL/ntv survey, only 13% of those eligible to vote said the SPD should run with Scholz. “This is a disastrous value,” says Der Spiegel. The magazine does not believe in a race to catch up, as was the case with German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder in a similar situation in 2005: “Schröder was a campaign machine who ended up almost catching up by a long shot. of the Federation.”

Across Germany's federal states, more and more voices are emerging from the shadows, even in Scholz's hometown of Hamburg. They also have a clear idea of ​​who should succeed him: Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. His popularity is inversely proportional to that of Olaf Scholz. In RTL/ntv, 57% want him to be the SPD candidate.

'He has a clear message'

Pistorius also performed significantly better when compared directly to Friedrich Merz in the latest Trend Barometer, 39% versus 25%. Many Germans are surprised by the popularity of the 64-year-old president, who has only been in office for nearly two years. In the “Bild” rankings, he is the only German politician with an approval rating of more than 50%.

Boris Pistorius talks to Rolf Mützenich (left), leader of the parliamentary group who wants to retain Scholz.Image: trapezoid

An explanation was offered by Munich Mayor Dieter Reiter, the first prominent Social Democratic figure to publicly endorse Pistorius in September. “He makes decisions, he explains, he has clear information, he talks to the troops,” Wright told Der Spiegel. “He speaks his mind and he fights.” This makes Pistorius a change of heart. Be “real”.

No household electricity in the Bundestag

Boris Pistorius showed “the difference clear and understandable language makes,” Wright said. In other words: he is not a “Scholzomat” who mechanically spouts empty words. Instead, he devoted himself to rearming the Bundeswehr and aiding Ukraine, even though he himself had long been a “Russian pro” (Russian was one of the subjects in his graduation exam).

Among the Social Democrats, many yearn for the peaceful policies of legendary prime minister and party leader Willy Brandt, but that doesn't make Pistorius very popular. As a “lateral entrant” from Lower Saxony, he also had no power in the Bundestag. And the party already has had bad experiences with “poll favorites.”

Martin Schulz car accident

Martin Schulz, who was “replaced” from Brussels, made a brilliant start as a candidate for chancellor in 2017, but was ultimately defeated by CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel. On the other hand, the almost namesake Olaf Scholz got off to a rocky start three years ago. In the end, the Social Democratic Party led by him became the strongest party, and Scholz became the head of the traffic light government.

Martin Schulz started 2017 with high poll ratings but ultimately failed to challenge Angela Merkel.Image: DPA/ARD Pool

He wanted to repeat this “feat”. But in 2021, Olaf Scholz benefited from the image of being the finance minister in charge during the coronavirus pandemic. And about the embarrassing mistakes made by rivals Armin Laschet (CDU) and Annalena Berbock (Greens). But now Germans view Scholz as extremely weak as a leader.

his head against the wall

Change is not easy. The SPD hopes to identify its candidate for chancellor at a party conference, which could take place in January, just weeks before the election. Replacing a “puppet” at such a late stage can be difficult; US Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have experienced this pain.

“Everything is not optimal,” Der Spiegel admits. However: “The party needs a game-changing moment.” Therefore, the replacement for Olaf Scholz (candidate together with Boris Pistorius) will be the party leader K. Klingbeil). Burger Magazine itself does not believe this will happen. The SPD leadership will “get it done with Scholz” – with their heads against the wall.