Let's take a look at the San Diego Padres' 2024 season, the issues the team needs to address this winter and early projections for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB Offseason Previews: What's Next for Orioles, Astros, Phillies and More?
Postseason result
The Padres cruised to the Braves in the wild-card round, but lost to the Dodgers in five games in the NLDS. They lost a back-and-forth game 1 before the start of a raucous game 2. They led two games to one in a 6-5 victory at rocky Petco Park in game three, but the Dodgers rallied to claim halftime victories in games 4 and 5.
Overall, Fernando Tatis (1.500 OPS), Jackson Merrill (.833) and Kyle Higashioka (1.062) led the offense in the postseason, with significant contributions from David Peralta. Luis Arraez, however, had a terrible postseason (.226 average), and Jake Cronenworth (.136) and Xander Bogaerts (.167) weren't much better. The Padres offense finished the postseason without scoring a run in 24 consecutive innings.
In the rotation, Dylan Cease struggled the most as the Dodgers got to him in games one and four, with both Padres losing. Michael King and Yu Darvish were effective, if not always supported by the run, and the tackling was solid for the most part. Losing Joe Musgrove in October hurt and could have been the difference in a close series.
Things that went well
The Padres were a model of perseverance this year, as they went 50-50 after 100 games before returning to the fourth-best record in baseball. The team overcame long-term injuries to its franchise player, Fernando Tatis Jr. appeared in 102 games – as well as two key starting pitchers and stayed in the race until a healthy lineup was able to withdraw from contention later in the game.
On the hitting side, success came with balanced contributions from several Padres. Jurickson Profar was a surprise player as he was expected to contribute minimally on a one-year deal but instead he led the club in OPS and scored runs. Manny Machado had another solid season, leading the Padres in home runs and RBIs. Jackson Merrill exceeded all rookie expectations, hitting .292 with 24 homers and an .826 OPS.
A pair of offseason acquisitions bolstered the pitching staff. Michael King, who was part of the Juan Soto trade, led the Padres in ERA. Dylan Cease, who was acquired from the White Sox in the March trade, led the team in innings, wins and strikeouts. The relief corps was led by Robert Suarez, who was one of baseball's best players in his first season in the position.
Things that went wrong
After performing well in his first year with the Padres, Xander Bogaerts dealt with a broken left shoulder this year and wasn't very productive (.688 OPS) in 111 games played. San Diego needs the 32-year-old to get back on track next season as he has nine years left on his $280 million contract.
The biggest setbacks for pitchers were injuries rather than performances, as Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove fell short of 100 innings. The team had a hard time replacing those innings as Matt Waldron (26 starts, 4.79 ERA) and Randy Vazquez (20 starts, 4.87 ERA) didn't accomplish much beyond eating innings.
Off-season plans
Overall, the Padres roster is in great shape for 2025. The team had average payroll this season and had a few shortcomings. Adding a starting pitcher, outfielder and catcher would be valuable, but there aren't many glaring holes on this team.
The infield is full of players who have been under the team's control for many seasons. As someone who hits for average but offers no power, Luis Arraez is an atypical but effective first baseman. Bogaerts will continue to play second base, while Ha-Seong Kim and Machado will play the shortstop and hot corner positions, respectively. Jake Cronenworth is a valuable reliever who can share first base with Arraez and fill in for him in other positions. However, the team is troubled behind the plate after Luis Campusano took a big step back this season after his breakthrough in 2023. Campusano will likely be part of a catchy tandem in 2025, but will need to be paired with someone trustworthy.
San Diego is in great shape with two of the three spots on the field. Fernando Tatis Jr. he hasn't reached his ceiling yet since missing the entire 2022 season, but even the slightly underwhelming version of Tatis is still a very effective player. He will play on the right wing and Merrill will be the center back. Profar is heading to free agency, but after his surprising success in 2024, both parties should be interested in continuing their relationship.
The rotation brings back three key members in Cease, King and Darvish. While Waldron and Vazquez have struggled at times this year, they are good enough to compete for the final spot in the rotation. Considering Darvish is 38, Musgrove will miss 2025, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and San Diego's minor league team doesn't have any top-tier prospects, it would make sense for the team to acquire a starter via trade or free agency .
The relief corps can withstand losing Tanner Scott to free agency while the rest of the group is expected to return. Suarez will continue to serve as the closer, with Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon making up the setup crew.
Prospects on the horizon
The Padres entered 2024 with one of the highest-rated farm systems in baseball before shedding many of their top prospects in this year's deals to acquire Cease, Arraez, Adam and Scott. They still have some gems, but there's no one in the pipeline who could make a significant contribution next year.
Ethan Salas was named the top international player in the 2023 signing class. He considers himself an outstanding defensive catcher whose plate-hitting skills are still a work in progress. At just 18 years old, Salas needs at least two more seasons in the lower league.
Another notable prospect is midfielder Leodalis De Vries, who was arguably the top candidate at the international signing period in 2024. At just 17, De Vries is a legitimate five-tool prospect. Like Salas, he will need at least two years of development in the lower league.
Those na rok 2025
Even the Padres front office would have to admit that the Dodgers have power over the NL West. After all, Los Angeles has won the league in 11 of the last 12 seasons, with San Diego's last NL West crown returning in 2006. For this reason, the Padres' first goal for 2025 should be to reach the postseason. Many teams have had deep postseason runs after winning wild cards, including the Padres, who reached the NLCS in 2022.
Beating Los Angeles should continue to be part of the goal and plan for San Diego, but it will be difficult to beat a team that has had a winning percentage of .600 or better in each of the last six seasons.
Focus on fantasy
Tatis will lead the charge against San Diego in fantasy circles, with an expected mid-range draft pick late in Round 1 or early in Round 2. The next Father off the board will be Cease, who will be rated as a low-end ace, followed by Merrill and the extremely reliable Machado. These three players will be selected in Round 5.
The remaining Padres will be selected in the mid-round, with Suarez, Bogaerts and Kim fitting into that category. Darvish will be a boom or bust option in the second half of the draft.
