LIn the spring, the customs authorities in the small nation of Moldova attacked the gold. Acting on a national intelligence tip, they stopped more than 100 travelers from Russia via Armenia, each carrying bundles of cash worth just shy of 10,000 euros – the threshold for mandatory declaration. Authorities seized more than €900,000 at Chisinau airport overnight.
Moldovan authorities quickly announced that the cash couriers were part of a scheme allegedly led by fugitive oligarchs linked to the Kremlin, aimed at funding dissidents and buying votes in this month's presidential election and key EU referendum.
The move provided an early indication of what Moldovan and Western officials have described in interviews the observer Russia's unprecedented attempt to undermine the country's bid for EU membership and weaken the authority of its pro-Western president through a series of destabilization campaigns.
“Russia is pouring millions in dirty money to usurp our democratic processes. This is not just intervention – it is full-scale intervention aimed at disrupting our future. And it's dangerous,” said Olga Roska, a foreign policy adviser to pro-Western President Mia Sandu.
Sandu faces re-election in an October 20 election, the same day Moldovans are due to hold a referendum asking whether they support constitutional changes – which will ultimately make the country – one of the poorest. Europe – Join the European Union.
Rosca said the government estimated at least 100 million euros were being sent from Russia to Moldova to handle the elections and the EU referendum. Not the first warning of Russian meddling: In June, the US, UK and Canada said Moscow was trying to meddle in Moldovan politics and seek to incite mass protests if its campaign fails.
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Moldova has gravitated between pro-Western and pro-Russian courses, although the shadow of the Kremlin has always loomed large. Moscow has 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a region held by pro-Russian separatists that broke from Moldova's government control in a brief war in the 1990s.
Sandu, a former World Bank official, was elected president in November 2020 as an anti-corruption reformer riding a popular wave with a pro-European agenda. She advocated a humble lifestyle in opposition to the male politicians who had long dominated Moldovan politics.
In a recent interview, the president said he shares a two-bedroom apartment with his mother, while his asset declaration from 2023 records his bank balance as $600.
In 2021, Sandhu's pro-Western party PAS won a majority in the country's parliamentary elections, giving him unprecedented power to implement reforms and push the country westward. But three years later, Moldova is mired in economic and political instability.
First, the country was plunged into an energy crisis when the Kremlin took control of Gazprom, cutting gas supplies to the country by a third and demanding twice as much as previous tariffs to keep it flowing, in what was widely seen as political payback from Moscow for Sandu's pro-Western stance. Later, Russia's war on Ukraine plunged Moldova into a wider financial crisis.
Located in a few hours Driven from Odessa, Moldova absorbed a large number of Ukrainian refugees per capita, putting enormous pressure on its health system, public services and infrastructure. Inflation rose to 40% and trade with both Moscow and Kiev plummeted.
Missile Russian missiles from the conflict added to the growing sense of danger, while Russian troops stationed in Transnistria further heightened concerns.
“Sandhu promised a lot, but the geopolitical situation was very difficult for her. They have not been able to fulfill all the promises,” said a Western official in Moldova, reflecting growing frustration among some Moldovans with Sandu and his party.
“There is growing apathy and disillusionment, which provides fertile ground for Russia,” the official added.
Sandhu is the favorite to win the first round of presidential polls against 10 contenders, but he faces a tricky run-off.
He is also leading the “Yes” campaign for the EU referendum, with polls showing 55-65% of voters in favor of joining the bloc. A major boost for Sandu, Moldova officially began EU accession negotiations in June. However, doubts remain about the country's ability to implement the necessary democratic and judicial reforms in the future.
Opposition critics have accused Chandu of politicizing the referendum by holding it on the same day as the presidential election. “The referendum is a very cynical move,” said Alexander Stoyanoklou in Chisinau, one of Sandu's main rivals from the Russian-friendly Socialist Party, which has 12% of the vote.
“EU integration should not be used for personal gain,” he added.
But those close to Chandu said the country could not wait because of Russia's growing influence. “We have a unique opportunity: Moldova has a pro-European president, parliament and government. The European Union is open to our members, and last June all countries supported the accession negotiations,” Roska said. “Moldova's survival as a democracy is at stake, and the geopolitical stakes are higher than ever,” Rosca said.
Chandu's supporters say the biggest threat comes from abroad. In particular, Ilan Shor, a fugitive pro-Russian businessman, is a vocal – and wealthy – opponent of EU membership recognized by the West.
Shore was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for his role in the disappearance of $1bn from Moldova's banking system last year. He fled to Israel and then to Moscow, where he formed a political movement aimed at destabilizing the current government in Chisinau.
In a press conference last Thursday, national police chief Viorel Cernăuśanu accused Shore and Moscow of establishing a complex “mafia-style” voter-buying scheme, bribing 130,000 Moldovans to vote against the referendum in favor of pro-Russia candidates. An “unprecedented, direct attack”.
Officials in Chisinau believe Shor is behind a string of pre-election sabotage attacks on government buildings, accusing him of employing youths trained in Moscow to foment unrest in the country. “We are ready for anything in the coming weeks,” said a city security official. “This will lead to various disinformation campaigns, violent street protests and crude vote buying,” they added.
Shore did not respond to questions the observer. But he has done little to distance himself from accusations that he is trying to interfere in Moldovan politics from abroad. Through the social network Telegram, he offered to pay the equivalent of $29 to voters if they signed up for his campaign, and promised to pay people who “convinced as many people as possible to their polling station” to vote “no or no” at the polls. Referendum.
He has publicly promised to pay Moldovans for posting anti-EU posts on Facebook and Telegram.
The central “fear mongering” narrative that Shore is promoting centers around claims that Chisinau's pro-European policies are pushing the country toward war with Russia, Vadim said. Pistrinciuc is director at Moldova's Institute for Strategic Initiatives, a think tank.
“We have never experienced this level of foreign interference,” he said.
To the dismay of officials in Chisinau, Shor's tactics have proven effective elsewhere in the country.
Last year, Yevgenia Gutsul, a previously unknown Shore-backed candidate, caused a political shock by winning the gubernatorial election in Gagauzia, another small, Russian-speaking semi-autonomous region in the south of the country.
Pro-Russian sentiment has always been high in Caucasus, a region home to an ethnic Turkic minority that has had an uneasy relationship with the capital Chisinau since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.
But Kutsul's rise from obscurity and his ties to the Kremlin have stunned even seasoned observers and prompted questions about Moscow's role in his elections.
“Two weeks before the election he had zero votes, and then suddenly he appeared and won,” said Mihail Sirkely, founder of Nokta, an independent media outlet based in Kakaousia.
Gutsul, openly declaring that he was running a “pro-Russian party”, visited Moscow. Vladimir Putin is currently under investigation into alleged use of Russian funds by a party linked to Shor after his election.
A Western diplomat in Chisinau said, “Shore is looking to repeat the Kakauzia playbook across the country.
For now, officials in Moldova believe Moscow is concentrating its efforts on influencing the EU referendum rather than presidential elections, where Sandu is the most popular politician.
“If the referendum is passed, it will lead to constitutional changes that will be difficult to reverse in the long term compared to election results,” said a senior Moldovan official.
But even if Sandhu survives this month's polls and referendum, his team expects renewed Kremlin efforts when his party faces re-election in the country's parliamentary elections next year.
“Russia's goal is clear: to trap Moldova in the gray zone,” Roska said. “If they lose Moldova, they lose a strategic foothold in the region.”
