Russia's 5 o'clock retrograde measures

The election of Donald Trump and the collapse of Germany's traffic lights are working in Vladimir Putin's favor. He sent more and more of his own soldiers to their deaths.

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Russia is sacrificing more and more soldiers and supplies – but progress is being made

Vladimir Putin continues to sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers to annex Ukrainian territory. An average of 1,625 military personnel were killed or wounded each day last week. Weekly losses range from 9,000 to 12,000 people. This is a record, ten times higher than at the beginning of the war.

War material losses also rose to record levels. But this is the only way for Russia to take over more of Ukraine. This is mainly located south of Pokrovsk. The area controlled by Ukraine in the Kursk region is also getting smaller and smaller. Since August, Russia has recaptured about half of the territory.

Russia has repeatedly used nuclear weapons to show off its force

Testing of long-range missiles in northwest Russia. Image: trapezoid

In 1994, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan signed the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine has committed to destroying or giving up all nuclear weapons it still possessed from the Soviet era. In return, the young nation received security guarantees such as respect for sovereignty and existing borders.

While Ukraine kept its commitments, Russia reneged, annexing Crimea in 2014 and eventually invading Ukraine in 2022. The fact that Putin and his followers have repeatedly threatened nuclear strikes since the start of the war is incredibly cynical, given the Budapest Memorandum – but it's effective. This has allowed Moscow to repeatedly intimidate its Western allies, especially Germany. More information about this can be found here.

As a further intimidation tactic, Vladimir Putin signed a new doctrine. It redefined the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. Under the rules, Russia can now use nuclear weapons as a deterrent against its military rivals and allies. The president has the final say.

Nuclear Threat, Part 2

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant is the most powerful nuclear power plant in Europe. Image: trapezoid

Russia has repeatedly attacked civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. The purpose was to demoralize—but it was more than that.

Sunday's violent drone strikes also targeted infrastructure needed to ensure the safety of Ukraine's three remaining nuclear power plants, among other things. Russia is at risk of a nuclear disaster on the scale of Fukushima or Chernobyl, according to assessments given to the Guardian by Greenpeace nuclear expert Sean Birney.

Nuclear power plants also rely on electricity supplies. If it fails, there is a risk of system instability.

Putin open to talks – but only with Trump

Putin and Trump shook hands in June 2019. “Interesting” may be the correct interpretation of Putin's facial expression.Image: trapezoid

Kremlin spokesman Peskov denied the claim, but five “insiders” told Reuters that Vladimir Putin was ready to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine with Donald Trump. Putin should insist on a freeze on the current frontline conflict. There will be space for negotiations in Zaporozhye, east of Kherson and near Kharkov and Nikolaev.

Putin just wants to negotiate with Donald Trump. The move makes sense. The incoming President of the United States is wholeheartedly committed to ending the war in Ukraine. This was even before he was sworn in as president. In an effort to project himself as a glorious angel of peace and a man of his word, Trump is expected to make generous concessions to the Russian president. Trump is also considered clumsy when it comes to foreign policy. His “deals” and personal efforts are notorious.

In 2020, he signed an agreement with the Taliban that Trump's former security adviser McMaster later called a “cede agreement.” It is considered to be the root cause of the collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban's return to power. Since then, the humanitarian situation in the country has seriously deteriorated. Various human rights, such as girls' ability to attend school, were restricted under Taliban rule.

The United States' withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) during Trump's first term as president was also considered a mistake. Iran has since enriched large quantities of uranium of “almost weapons-grade quality.” Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has repeatedly warned that this means the country has the ability to produce multiple nuclear weapons – if it so chooses.

Zelensky also talks about giving up territory – but only temporarily

Where will Ukraine go? Volodymyr Zelensky is more susceptible than ever to the whims of his “allies.”Image: trapezoid

In view of the current situation, including the new elections in Germany, Kyiv's tone is also changing: “We will not give up Ukraine's rights to its territory,” Volodymyr Zelensky stressed in his speech to the Ukrainian parliament, “but Maybe Ukraine must survive Moscow in order to achieve their goals and restore the entire national territory.

By “someone” we are, of course, Vladimir Putin. Zelensky appealed for patience and raised the possibility of handing control of some occupied territories to Russian occupiers until Putin's big desk is full.

Where post-Putin Russia will go and when it will happen remains to be seen. If a power struggle or regime change were to occur in Moscow, both the diplomatic and military cards would be reshuffled.