Russia makes progress and may end trench warfare

Russia is building momentum in its war in Ukraine. The army has made progress after arduous efforts. What does this mean for the future.

Frederic Howick/t-online

Russia is taking new steps in its war in Ukraine: Despite rumors of trench warfare in recent months, aggressor Russia is now making more and more advances. In recent weeks, Russian forces have achieved victories in the eastern Ukrainian cities of Vukhledar and Velika Novosilka.

They are moving faster than all of 2023. However, Russia is still a long way from achieving its self-imposed goals. After all, President Vladimir Putin has been planning to seize large swathes of Ukraine since he invaded Ukraine three years ago. The think tank Institute for War Studies (ISW) has drawn up three possible scenarios for how the war against Ukraine could continue.

Russia is making progress

Initial Situation: ISW relied on information from military blogs and geolocation records, according to which Russia captured Katerynivka, Yelysavetivka, Illinka, and possibly Romanivka over the weekend. All sites are located northeast of Uldal. Russian troops are also said to have advanced towards the northern city of Trudove.

The Russian Armed Forces have significantly accelerated their advances in the directions of Pokrovsk, Kurachovo, Vukhledar and Velika Novosilka, and since September 1, 2024, at least Occupied 1103 square kilometers. In comparison, in all of 2023, they gained only 387 square kilometers of land due to Ukraine's counteroffensive. Apparently, Russia managed to exploit the occupation of Uldal for further operations.

Three scenarios for the further course of the war

ISW outlines three options for how Russia could proceed. The first scenario assumes that Russian forces will first advance southwest, east and northeast of Velika Novosilka in order to encircle the area. Russian troops have been confirmed to be located within 5 kilometers northeast and 2.5 kilometers southeast of Velyka Novosilka. The city itself may be excluded from Russian forces to avoid better-prepared Ukrainian forces there. Instead, the military leadership may intend to increase pressure on the southwest and east sides of the city, forcing Ukrainian soldiers to retreat without having to attack head-on.

War progress map.Image: Heike Assmann

The ISW sees a second possibility for Russian forces advancing from the south along the H15 highway towards Andrivka. This is also supported by the observations of Russian military blogger and Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashavetz. Settlement in eastern Ukraine could create more opportunities to encircle nearby Ukrainian forces. It will also aid Russian efforts to smooth the route between Selidove and Rozdorny.

As a third scenario, the ISW outlines Russian forces advancing west and southwest from Selidov toward Andrevka in order to force the retreat of Ukrainian forces north of Kulakhov. This theory is supported by the fact that since the capture of Selidov, Russia has been trying to advance further west and southwest from there.

The Donetsk region is close at hand

However, it is unclear how Russia will proceed. None of the above scenarios fit in with the Russian military’s original fall and winter plans. Russia's own stated goal is to capture Pokrovsk. But Ukraine has repeatedly repelled such offensives.

In addition, the Kremlin is likely to target the entire Donetsk region. Ukrainian news agency Interfax quoted Ukrainian intelligence sources as saying on November 20 that it had seen a document from the Russian Defense Ministry. According to reports, Russia is planning to completely annex Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.

House in Kherson hit by Russian glide bomb (file photo): Russia is trying to take over the area.Photo: Kherson Regional Military Administration/AP/dpa

In the process of achieving this goal, it would be appropriate to first ensure the capture of parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The region has not been illegally annexed by Russia. Moreover, despite all the sophisticated plans of the military leadership, the Russian military is currently unable to do this. The terrain gained in recent weeks was achieved in a grueling offensive that cost Russia huge numbers of soldiers and materiel.

Russia is getting foreign support

British Defense Minister John Healy said on November 9 that the number of Russian casualties in October 2024 would be approximately 1,345 per day. Jakub Janovsky, founder of the defense-related website Oryx, compiled data on material damage. Thus, in September and October, the Russian Armed Forces lost 197 tanks, 661 armored personnel carriers (APC) and 65 artillery systems with a diameter of more than 100 mm across the entire front. All this information is difficult to verify independently.

Russia cannot sustain this kind of war for long. One way to solve this problem is to deploy foreign soldiers on the Russian side. It is understood that North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to Russia. Now the Financial Times reports that Yemen's Houthi rebels will also be deployed. The newspaper wrote that the militia was recruiting new recruits in the country to deploy to the Russian army and had handed over hundreds of Yemeni mercenaries to Russia through “unfair human trafficking.”

Russia is also promoting frontline services at home and exploiting the plight of young people who are often deeply in debt. The Kremlin hopes to take advantage of a new law that would forgive up to 10 million rubles (approximately 91,000 euros) in loan debts for volunteers serving in the war, whether conscripts, conscripts or contract soldiers. President Vladimir Putin signed the corresponding law on Saturday, Russian media reported the next day. However, there are also reports of forcible recruitment of young Ukrainians. It remains to be seen how much of an impact increased recruiting can have.

After a heated and contentious debate, the SPD board unanimously nominated Olaf Scholz as candidate for chancellor. The dpa news agency learned the news from participants at a meeting of the 33-member management board in Berlin.