Researchers predict cancer deaths will increase by 90% by 2050

Global cancer cases and cancer-related deaths will increase significantly. This is the report of an Australian research team.

Melanie Lanno/t-online

Almost no other disease causes as much fear and worry as cancer. Almost everyone has been exposed to it, whether through their own worries or the fate of someone close to them. A new study from Australia looks to the future and paints a bleaker picture.

In 2022, approximately 20 million people will suffer from cancer worldwide. Almost half of them (9.7 million) died as a result. These alarming figures come from a study conducted by researchers led by Ph.D. Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, University of Queensland, Brisbane. The findings, recently published in the journal JAMA Network Open, provide not only a checklist but also a look ahead to 2050.

New prediction: Global cancer deaths will increase by 90% by 2050

Researchers say that by 2050, cancer will spread dramatically around the world: the number of cancer cases may increase by 77% to 35.3 million, and the number of cancer deaths may increase by nearly 90% to 18.5 million.

Of particular concern is that this increase will not be evenly distributed. While richer countries face modest increases (around 42% more cases and 57% more deaths), poorer areas are likely to see cases and deaths triple.

Lung cancer will become the most common type of cancer

As part of the study, researchers analyzed 36 cancers from 185 countries around the world – taking into account patients' age, gender and place of residence. The report shows that breast cancer is the most common type of cancer in 2022, followed by prostate cancer, colon cancer, lung cancer and non-melanoma skin cancer. Lung cancer plays a special role—not only is it the most frequently newly diagnosed cancer, it is also the cancer that causes the most deaths.

According to projections, this development appears to be continuing: By 2050, scientists also expect lung cancer to become the most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths—accounting for approximately one-fifth of all cancer-related deaths worldwide.

Men are more likely to get cancer than women

Another difference has been found between the genders: Men are more likely to develop cancer than women, and this gap is expected to widen by 2050. The incidence of cancer in men is expected to increase by about 84%, which is significantly higher than that in women (increase by about 68%).

The reason men have higher rates of cancer isn't just due to biological differences. Behavioral factors also play a crucial role. As a result, men are less likely to have screening tests, and they drink and smoke more frequently—modifiable cancer risk factors.

Based on these new findings, Bizuayehu believes it is important to strengthen global health systems to improve cancer prevention, early detection and treatment, according to study author Dr. “This is necessary to better address existing disparities in cancer burden and slow expected progression,” the publication said.

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