Putin inadvertently exposed Russia's weaknesses

Vladimir Putin's current interactions in Russia are surprising, even with journalists. The Russian president mainly wants to hide his weaknesses, but given the war in Ukraine, that doesn't sound right.

Patrick Dickman/t-online

Indeed, so far he is well on his way in the war in Ukraine—at least militarily. That's why Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin made it clear again on Russian state television on Friday that Russia would not make any concessions. He made it clear that it was too early to negotiate any deal with the Kiev government.

Too early? After two and a half years of a war of attrition, the Kremlin may believe it can further improve its cards for possible negotiations. Russian troops are advancing towards Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, a city vital to the logistics of Ukraine's war in the Donetsk region. The Russian president is buying time, hoping to take advantage of military tailwinds politically while waiting to see who wins the U.S. presidential election.

Russia first wants domestic political chaos in the United States to weaken the West. One thing is clear: this will be a gift to Putin, so he is waiting. But it's not that simple.

The Russian dictator is under increasing pressure: both domestically and internationally. Putin's losses were fatal and he had to worry about further NATO measures. That's one reason Putin is noticeably more talkative these days. He actually wants to show strength, but in doing so he is actually demonstrating Russia's current weaknesses.

Huge losses, expensive war

The war remains about who can endure longer: Russia and its allies or Ukraine and its Western backers. As Russia invades neighboring countries, the Kremlin boss took a huge gamble that went completely wrong.

After all, the Russian leadership does not expect Ukraine to hold out for long. on the contrary. Russian generals expected Ukrainian resistance to last only a few days, as Western intelligence was able to demonstrate relatively well through the composition and equipment of the Russian invasion force in February 2022.

Russian soldiers in Donbass: Ukraine is under intense pressure in its war with Russia.Image: IMAGO/SNA

But in late October 2024, the Russian army was still fighting in Ukraine, and there was still no sign of an end in sight. Russia currently occupies nearly 20% of Ukraine's territory, and these cities are often completely destroyed, with their former residents mostly rejecting Russian rule.

To achieve this goal, Putin not only sacrificed tens of thousands of lives, but also decoupled his economy from the West, spending more than half of Russia's wealth fund on war while making himself extremely dependent on China. “More than 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in Putin's war, and he cannot sustain his attack on Ukraine without foreign support,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in Brussels on Monday.

Ukrainian soldiers training: Ukraine is once again short of weapons, ammunition and military equipment.Image source: IMAGO/ZUMA Press Wire

The price Russia paid was huge. Moreover, Putin must worry about the eventual reckoning of this crisis at home. The Kremlin boss is like a gambler who has lost a lot of money in the casino and continues to gamble, believing that he can still make up for his losses. There’s a term in psychology to describe this behavior: escalating commitment or “putting too much in and giving up syndrome.”

Putin fears being isolated

Despite its own losses, Russia under Putin appears willing to pursue its war goals. But it won't be easy, even for a dictator with absolute control over Russia's media.

Putin also needs to reassure his people and international allies. Therefore, it mainly pursues three goals:

The pursuit of these goals has become clear over the past few days and has revealed several weaknesses that Russia is currently working to overcome.

BRICS summit in Kazan: Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands.Image: trapezoid

Putin hopes that the show of strength will reassure his closest allies that he is winning in Ukraine and that the war will not last long. After all, in international politics, no one wants to be on the side of the losers, no one wants to be on the side of the criminal pariahs. That’s why Putin shook hands seriously at the BRICS summit last week, portrayed the BRICS as Russia’s new friends, and was very happy to welcome United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to Russia.

Putin did this first and foremost to show his own people that, in addition to the United States and its allies, Russia still has enough partners – after all, Guterres himself went to Kazan as a UN representative.

But appearances can be deceiving. The BRICS countries are united mainly because of their common pursuit of greater prosperity and economic growth. BRICS members do not share a common base of values, and they do not collectively view the West as an enemy. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi slowly increased pressure on Putin at the BRICS meeting in Kazan, but without pushing him too hard. China and India are certainly working hard to end the war in Ukraine because it is, after all, a brake on the global economy.

Putin claims to be taking the peace initiative seriously. In fact, none of this is really noticeable yet. But Moscow cannot afford to permanently alienate these countries. Because without the support of China and India, Putin cannot continue his economic war; this dependence is currently Russia's first weakness.

Weakening the West through fear

However, displays of military strength not only reassure allies but are also a core element of Russian deterrence. The Kremlin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons to prevent or at least slow down further Western support measures. This has proven to be an effective strategy, even as Putin uses these threats to annoy allies such as China.

The embrace of Modi provided Putin with the image he needed to prove that despite the war, he was not isolated internationally.Image: trapezoid

The West is now debating whether Ukraine's allies should allow the use of long-range weapons against military targets on Russian soil. In this case, the Russian president wants to see his country enter a direct war with NATO.

When a reporter for Russian state television was asked about the West's reaction to his warning, he said: “They didn't say anything about it, but I hope they heard it.” “Ukrainian soldiers cannot use these weapons alone. Only Only experts from NATO countries can do this, because this requires space reconnaissance, and Ukraine obviously does not have this capability.”

In this case, the Kremlin boss announced countermeasures. It is also mostly a bluff designed to stoke fear in the West. After all, the West has long identified targets in Russia and Ukraine, including with the help of satellites. The Ukrainian military does not need Western soldiers to operate these weapons.

ATACMS missiles have a flight range of about 300 kilometers, and Ukraine hopes to use them to attack Russian military airports. (archived image)Picture: www.imago-images.de

Moscow is once again concerned about using threats to block Western measures to support Ukraine. Russia's second weakness is obvious: the Western alliance is far more financially powerful than Russia. Putin must therefore undermine Western resolve in this hybrid war and exacerbate war weariness in Western democracies.

Russia needs North Korean soldiers

The Russian leadership is convinced that it has more resources than Ukraine, but these resources are also limited even for the Kremlin. This is the third weakness Moscow wants to cover up: Russia has a supply problem.

North Korea and Russia have agreed to provide each other with military assistance if either is attacked. (archived image)Image: trapezoid

This is why the Kremlin no longer relies solely on North Korea and Iran for weapons and ammunition, but now also relies on North Korean soldiers. Russia's president said over the weekend that it was unclear where dictator Kim Jong Un's troops would be deployed. But crucially the Kremlin boss no longer denies their existence.

It was an embarrassing admission for Putin, who has repeatedly touted the strength of his military in recent years. But Russia obviously cannot do without Kim Jong-un's military, otherwise he would not risk the possibility of North Korean troops sparking a conflict in a war.

So Putin continues to play with fire. But the Kremlin must also find the right negotiating points in this war before its weaknesses become more apparent.

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