Gulf countries are putting pressure on Washington to prevent Israel from attacking Iran's oil facilities because they fear their own oil facilities could be attacked by Tehran's allies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters.
In an attempt to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also denying Israel the right to fly over their airspace in the event of any attack on Iran and have sent this to Washington, three sources close to government circles said.
Israel has vowed that Iran will pay for its missile attack last week, while Tehran has said that any retaliation would be met with great destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the region that could target the United States.
The actions by the Gulf countries follow diplomatic efforts by non-Arab Shiite Iran to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence in Washington amid growing concerns that Israel could attack Iran's oil production facilities. .
During meetings this week, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that it could not guarantee the security of the Gulf kingdom's oil facilities if Israel received any help in carrying out an attack, a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat told Reuters.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: “The Iranians said: 'If the Gulf countries open their airspace to Israel, it will be an act of war.' But (Saudi Arabia) will not allow anyone to use its airspace.”
The diplomat said Tehran had sent a clear signal to Riyadh that its allies in countries such as Iraq and Yemen could react if Israel received any regional support against Iran.
According to Gulf and Iranian sources, a possible Israeli attack was the main topic of talks on Wednesday between Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a Gulf visit to rally support.
The Iranian minister's visit, along with Saudi-US communications at the defense ministry level, are part of a coordinated effort to deal with the crisis, a Gulf source close to the government told Reuters.
A person in Washington familiar with the discussions confirmed that Gulf officials had contacted their U.S. counterparts to express concern about the possible scope of expected Israeli retaliation.
The White House declined to comment when asked whether Gulf governments had asked Washington to ensure a measured Israeli response. US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Israeli retaliation on Wednesday in a telephone conversation that both sides described as positive.
Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East and now a member of the Atlantic Council's advisory panel in Washington, said: “Gulf states' concerns are likely to be a key point of discussion with Israeli peers in trying to persuade Israel to give a carefully calibrated response.”
OIL IS AT RISK?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), de facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare production capacity to offset any losses in Iranian supplies should Israeli retaliation destroy some facilities in the country.
However, much of this spare capacity is located in the Persian Gulf region, so if, for example, oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates are affected, the world could face an oil supply problem.
Saudi Arabia has been cautious about an Iranian attack on its oil facilities since the 2019 attack on an Aramco oil field that shut down more than 5% of global oil supplies. Iran has denied involvement.
Riyad has achieved rapprochement with Tehran in recent years, but trust remains an issue. There are U.S. military installations or troops in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Concerns about oil facilities and the possibility of a broader regional conflict were also a major topic of talks between Emirati officials and their U.S. counterparts, another Gulf source said.
In 2022, Iran-allied Houthi fighters in Yemen fired rockets and drones at trucks refueling oil near a refinery owned by the United Arab Emirates state oil company Adnoc and claimed responsibility for the attack.
“The Gulf countries do not allow Israel to use their airspace. They will not allow Israeli missiles to fly through and there is also hope that they will not hit oil installations,” a source in the Persian Gulf said.
Three sources in the Gulf stressed that Israel could direct attacks through Jordan or Iraq, but using the airspace of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Qatar was out of the question and strategically unnecessary.
Analysts also stressed that Israel has other options, including the ability to refuel in the air, which would allow its jets to fly through the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, head to the Persian Gulf and back.
Israel will calibrate its response and, as of Wednesday, had not yet made a decision on whether to attack Iran's oil fields, according to two senior Israeli officials.
The option was one of several presented by the defense establishment to Israeli leaders, officials said.
