Peaceful settlement could lead to mass exodus

Recently, people in the West often say that for the sake of peace, Ukraine should cede its territory to Russia. However, many issues remain unnoticed.

Kurt Pelda/ch media

As power changes in Washington, a negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine may be closer. Given Russia's slow but steady progress, such a peace treaty could force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia. This would reward Moscow for its aggression in violation of international law, with unforeseen consequences for the free nations of Europe.

According to a survey conducted in the autumn, 52% of Ukrainians now support a quick negotiated solution. This proportion has almost doubled in one year. A recent survey showed that 52% of Russian respondents now support peace talks.

Lost ground

When it comes to ceding territory, just over half of those who support negotiations with Ukraine are willing to do so. Only 27% of all respondents were willing to hand over territory to Russia for peace. This shows that ceding territory remains unpopular among the Ukrainian public.

Ukrainian tank barrier in Donetsk Oblast.Image: raimond lüppken/az

Currently, more than 20 square kilometers are being lost every day on the battlefield, especially in Donetsk Oblast in the east of the country, where the main force of Russia's offensive is. These were effectively involuntary “territorial cessions”, the consequences of which are already visible today. At the same time, Kiev’s leadership has made it clear that it no longer believes in military means to regain parts of the country occupied by Russia.

But that doesn't mean Ukraine has lost the war: as of February 2022, Russia had captured only 12% of the territory Kiev controlled at the start of the invasion. For Switzerland, this amounts to the loss of territory in the Valais region – and that comes after 33 months of war.

Temporary peace?

When talking about the possible cession of Ukraine, we must add the Crimean Peninsula and parts of Donbas occupied by Russia in 2014. These territories, combined with any territories conquered since February 2022, represent just over 18% of Ukraine's territory along the 1991 borders. It can be assumed that Putin will not give up this 18% in negotiations – in exchange for what may only be a temporary peace.

This is also the problem with any territorial concession: the aggressor may continue to attack after a break in fighting and armament. This can only be avoided by the rock-solid security guarantees of the Western world.

However, the United States and Britain had provided security guarantees to Ukraine as early as 1994, which later proved to be completely worthless. No one is seriously trying to reverse Russia's annexation or take control of the Kremlin.

There was a long queue at the ATM in Konstantinovka.Image: raimond lüppken/az

What the West often overlooks is this: when Ukrainian land falls into Moscow's hands, a wave of refugees always follows. For example, about 95% of the residents fled the city of Bahmut, which was occupied by Russia in May 2023. Few people continued to live under Russian rule.

Nothing can change in the future. Even those who wanted to stay found themselves faced with completely destroyed infrastructure and bombed-out cities, with no jobs and no prospects for reconstruction.

Request evacuation via text message

The population was staggering: before the Russian invasion, Bahmut's neighboring town of Konstantinovka had about 70,000 inhabitants. The battle lines had been much closer since the fall of Bahmut. The distance from the perimeter to the nearest Russian position is about 8 kilometers. Shelling and bombing attacks have increased, and a large portion of the population has fled the city in recent months.

Authorities currently estimate the current population at 18,000. Huge posters were put up across the city encouraging people to evacuate. People receive daily text messages from authorities asking them to leave Donetsk Oblast.

Evacuation poster from Konstantinovka.Image: raimond lüppken/az

Long lines formed at the few ATMs still in operation. Almost all cafes and restaurants are closed, also because of the curfew which now lasts from 3pm to 11am. While there was still regular electricity and heating, life was becoming increasingly unbearable – not to mention the occasional explosions from Russian rockets and glide bombs.

A similar exodus could be seen further west in frontline cities such as Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. The damage there was much worse than in relatively quiet Konstantinovka. Only families with children would be forcibly evacuated; remaining civilians could decide for themselves whether to flee or wait for the arrival of the Russians.

Some displaced people are returning

In the mining town of Mirnograd, a driver pulled up next to us and rolled down his side window. He excitedly explained that the authorities' current population figures were too low. Many residents initially fled but gradually returned home as they were unable to find adequate shelter inland. Life as a displaced person in your own country is also not inspiring.

In fact, there are police cars on some of the main roads. Uniformed police officers checked vehicles heading to Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. The purpose of the flying roadblocks is to prevent families with children from returning to frontline cities.

A destroyed hotel in Pokrovsk.Image: raimond lüppken/az

The part of Donetsk Oblast that was controlled by Ukraine before the Russian invasion had approximately 1.9 million inhabitants at the start of the war. Today, that number is less than 330,000. The Donetsk Oblast is just one of four regions that Russia intends to fully annex.

Of these four regions of the country, Ukrainians still control approximately 26,000 square kilometers, and an estimated 2 million people still live in the area. Large numbers of them would flee if their lands were ceded to Russia. Across the rest of Ukraine, millions of people may be mulling over whether they still see a future for their homeland. (aargauerzeitung.ch)

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