Newzoo has lowered its games market forecast for 2023 to $184 billion, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, in its latest report.
The data firm previously estimated that the games market would experience a 2.6% rise to $187.7 billion in 2023. Last year, the market saw a 4.3% decline as the pandemic boost ended.
Newzoo attributed its lowered forecast in part to challenges in the mobile market, suggesting that a “challenging privacy landscape will somewhat limit growth until 2026”, including potential impact of the Epic vs Google antitrust trial.
It is now estimated that the mobile segment will see a 1.6% decline to $90.4 billion, compared to $92.6 billion in the previous report.
However, mobile remains the most significant portion of the industry by consumer spending, accounting for nearly half of the overall market.
The console segment is still forecast to be the second biggest sector and is expected to generate $53.2 billion, a 1.9% increase year-over-year. It was previously estimated that this sector would produce $56.1 billion in 2023, and the 5% drop was due to a decline in “engagement and monetisation” for live service games such as Fortnite and Rocket League.
However, the release of titles delayed from 2020 through to 2022 this year helped boost revenue, such as The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and Final Fantasy 16 in H1 followed by Spider-Man 2, Starfield, and Super Mario Bros Wonder in H2.
Newzoo estimated that PC will be this year’s “biggest revenue growth vehicle” due to an forecasted growth of 3.9% year-on-year to $40.4 billion fuelled by the release of titles like Hogwarts Legacy and Diablo 4.
Meanwhile, the data firm forecast that the Asia Pacific region is still on track to lead the global market, estimated to account for 46% of global revenues at $84.1 billion despite a 0.8% decline year-over-year. This region was previously forecasted to experience a 1.2% growth in revenue to $85.5 billion.
The market analysis firm attributed this to the Chinese market “bringing down the region’s average with its 0.7% year-on-year revenue growth” and that the “ripple effect of previous freezes and slow licensing are echoing throughout China’s games market.” It also attributed this decline to the end of NetEase and Activision Blizzard’s partnership last year.
Newzoo further forecasted that revenues will grow 1.7% in North America to $50.6 billion, while Europe is expected to grow o.8% to reach $33.6 billion.
Looking ahead, Newzoo has forecast the global games market to generate revenues of $205.7 billion by 2026, noting “the current console generation – bolstered by a successor to the Nintendo Switch” and mobile developers adapting to the “new privacy landscape” as significant factors.
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