YoBenjamin Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire in Gaza or Lebanon or anywhere else (at least not yet). The Biden administration and Keir Starmer's government may have continued to weave politically convenient fiction over the past week. The assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar has opened a window for peace, if you wish. But that's nonsense. Israel's Prime Minister goes on a violent rampage like a drunken hooligan armed with piles of bricks supplied by the US and UK. He loves the sound of breaking glass.
The unpleasant reality is that a staggering number of Israeli citizens foolishly believe that Netanyahu and his far-right allies are winning the war that Hamas started on October 7 of last year, and that Israel has expanded criminally incessantly since then. They see Sinwar's death, after a series of high-profile assassinations, as the latest demonstration of Netanyahu's slash-and-burn policy, even if it inevitably backfires. Your next goal? Iran.
What is Netanyahu thinking? Their goal is to achieve maximum power, access and influence. While Hamas has been decapitated and reduced to irregular and inconsistent resistance operations, Israel has intensified military operations in northern Gaza. As usual, he is happy to receive international criticism for the high number of civilian casualties in desolate places like Jabaliya. Because? Because while he has no coherent plan for a Gaza “birthday,” Netanyahu is hell-bent on increasing Israeli control and his own position before the day Joe Biden or someone else decides to stop shooting.
Haaretz reported that Netanyahu rejected suggestions from Israeli and American military chiefs to use Shinwar's assassination to secure a hostage deal. A senior Israeli hostage negotiator told the newspaper: “To a large extent, we are in the same situation. Massacre does not create flexibility. The goals of the war have not changed in terms of ending Hamas rule. As a result, the directives issued to security agencies have also not changed. The negotiator said there were no changes from Hamas either.
Similar Israeli intransigence is evident in Lebanon, where airstrikes on Beirut and other cities and regional events have intensified since the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On Monday, Israeli forces expanded their attacks on non-military targets.
In a sign of his disdain for peacemakers, Netanyahu has shown no mercy in taking his battle to the UN and, politically, launched a brazen attack last month. Harsh speeches before the General Assembly and military attacks against UNIFIL at the UN in Lebanon. The peacekeepers are wounded. The Lebanese army, another non-combatant force, has also been attacked.
Amos Hochstein, the US peace envoy, arrived in Beirut on Monday to press for a ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which established the dividing line between the two sides in the Lebanon war. 2006. There is talk of creating a new international force to protect the border between Israel and Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israel is said to demand future rights to intervene in the country again, both on the ground and in the air, whenever it perceives a threat.
These last demands are unacceptable for any sovereign State, no matter how weak. But they reflect the general attitude of the Israeli leader. As in Gaza, it also happens in Lebanon. Knowing that international pressure cannot be resisted indefinitely, Netanyahu is determined to cause as much damage as possible. Hezbollah must end hostilities militarily and organizationally, to the best of its ability and as it dictates, on favorable terms.
We can't help but feel sorry for Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State. Following Biden's delusional belief that killing Sinwar is an opportunity, not another milestone on the road to hell, Blinken is ordered this week for another round of what Americans jokingly call Middle East peacemaking. He arrived in Tel Aviv today as air raid sirens sounded, saying that Hezbollah had bombed the city.
But Blinken has no sticks, only carrots, and Netanyahu is a carnivore. For Netanyahu, talking to Blinken means listening to what he has to say, agreeing that it's a good idea, and then moving forward regardless once his visitor turns his back.
Reality check number one: The main target of Blinken's trip was not Gaza or Lebanon. Their goal is strikes, destructive power and proliferation, nuclear madness and Israel's imminent retaliatory strike against Iran, following Tehran's 181 ballistic missile attack earlier this month. Second reality check: Blinken and Netanyahu know that Biden will not seriously try to contain Israel before the US elections on November 5. There will be no gun cuts that could cost Democrats votes, nor punitive sanctions.
Biden's biggest fear is an explosive, out-of-control conflict between Iran and Israel this week or next, just before voters choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Netanyahu's real horizon is the US elections. This is what it points to. Therefore, without control, he will continue to do whatever he wants, and in both Gaza and Lebanon for at least the next two weeks.
If Harris wins, the United States can impose conditions because Harris apparently feels strongly about the humanitarian cost of war. If Trump wins, Netanyahu, the like-minded far-right anti-Palestinian hawk, will be able to cash in on his chips as he chooses, from his current position of strength, to insist on the timing, terms and manner of any ceasefire and subsequent prolonged negotiations. -term settlement.
This is what Netanyahu thinks and that is why he will not think about a ceasefire now. Neither he nor anyone else knows what Iran would do if attacked on a critical scale. via leaked US briefing documents. Netanyahu takes his visceral, endless mischief too far as the brutal, irresponsible opportunist. In the coming days, his murderous game may finally blow up in his and Israel's faces.
-
Simon Tisdall is the Observer's foreign affairs commentator.
-
Do you have any comments on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to email a response of up to 300 words to our Letters section to be considered for publication, click here.
