After Sunday's race at the Charlotte Roval, the field of drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will be reduced to eight drivers.
The second round qualifying race is the seventh race on the hybrid oval/road course, and several changes have been made to the track. The chicane before the start/finish line has been changed again, and the last corner of the infield before the drivers enter the bank in Turns 1 and 2 of the oval is significantly different.
The route has been reconfigured so that the driver can turn almost 180 degrees to the left before entering the bank. The aim is to create another overtaking zone on the track, although it is very easy to see drivers bombing each other in desperation when restarting. After all, chaos in Roval is nothing new.
Here is the table before the sixth play-off race. The first two races of the second round were won by drivers who did not qualify for the playoffs (Ross Chastain at Kansas and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at Talladega), so William Byron is the only driver to secure a spot in the third round.
1. William Byron, 3,122 points
Byron can simply focus on stage wins and the race on Sunday. He has had six top-five and three top-10 finishes in six career starts.
2. Christopher Bell, 3105
Bell won at the Roval two years ago and has finished in the top 15 in each of his last three starts. He will probably start playing up front too. He has failed to qualify outside the top eight in his three starts for Joe Gibbs Racing. Perhaps at the end of the first stage he will secure a place in the next round.
3. Kyle Larson, 3100
Larson is best known for his final lap at the Roval in 2018, when he bounced off the wall and finished 25th, eliminating Jimmy Johnson from the playoffs. He won on the track in 2021 and, like Bell, should be among the front runners again on Sunday.
4. Denny Hamlin, 3078
Hamlin's misfortunes at Talladega turned into good fortune, as his beat-up car allowed him to get behind a massive 28-car pileup and finish with a decent points lead over the ninth-place Roval. Hamlin's fifth-place finish in 2021 is his only top-10 finish at the track, although last season's 37th-place finish was his first outside the top-20. On Sunday, anything in the top 20 should be enough.
5. Alex Bowman, 3074
Did you know that Bowman enters Sunday's race with the best average of any driver on the Roval? He had two top-five finishes in five starts and never finished outside the top ten. Bowman has an average GPA of 6.4 and will be another 10 in the third round.
6. Ryan Blaney, 3073
Blaney won that race in 2018 after Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. collided. This is his only victory on the track, but in six starts he finished in the top ten four times. With a 25-point advantage over ninth-placed teammate Joey Logano, he just needs to avoid disaster.
7. Tyler Reddick, 3062
We're now in the territory of drivers who don't have to have particularly bad days to be eliminated from the playoffs. Reddick, however, has emerged as one of the best road track performers in NASCAR. In four starts at Roval, he finished in the top ten three times, and after starting from pole position a season ago he finished sixth.
8. Chase Elliott, 3061
Elliott is also still a very good road driver, even though his dominance is no longer what it was a few seasons ago. He won back-to-back races in 2019 and 2020, and has since finished 12th, 20th and ninth in three races. He failed to qualify outside the top ten only once. Given how difficult it is to tackle road courses in Cup Series cars, qualifying will be extremely important.
9. Joey Logano, 3048
Reddick has the second-best average in the Roval. Reddick is third. Elliott is fourth. Guess who's fifth? Logano didn't take a win on track, but his 18th place in 2022 is his only finish outside the top 10. He will need a great run and trouble from the drivers in front of him.
10. Daniel Suarez, 3041
Suarez's Roval stats are approximate. He finished 13th in 2021 and has three other finishes outside the top 30 and no other top 20 finishes. In 2022, he started third and finished 36th. Last season he started from third place and finished 33rd.
11. Austin Cindric, 3032
Cindric didn't perform as well as expected in his two Roval starts. In 2022 he took 21st place, and a season ago he was 25th.
12. Chase Briscoe, 3029
Briscoe has found success in the Xfinity Series at the Roval, but his best finish is ninth in 2022. Can Stewart-Haas give him a car fast enough to keep the team's latest championship bid alive?
