Last week, I asked a senior Trump official if he would bet on the outcome of the election.
“I’m not betting,” was the reply.
I asked a major Democratic Party donor (much wealthier than Trump's advisor) the same question.
Their response? “I will contribute whatever it takes for Kamala to win. But a bet? A real bet? That's a different story.
We are now in a “silly time” in American politics – during which, as the election approaches, any serious politician or pundit is expected to have a definitive view on which way the vote will fall.
And yet, very few people I speak to – at any level of expertise or privileged position – make such a direct call.
With less than four weeks to go, this is the most competitive presidential election in modern history. All signs agree: no one's advantage.
Last week, I asked a senior Trump official if he would bet on the outcome of the election. “I’m not betting,” was the reply.
With less than four weeks to go, this is the most competitive presidential election in modern history. All signs agree: no one’s advantage.
In a way, this is all part of the Great Political Humiliation caused by the emergence of Donald J. Trump.
If you listened to the polls in 2016, Trump was a sure loser.
In 2020, with Covid, and after four years of Trump chaos, the smart money has reasonably excluded Trump. But then he got 44,000 votes after winning — close enough for him and many others to challenge the results.
Then, in a harsh rebuke, and despite predictions of an imminent “Red Wave”, many of Trump's Republican representatives were eliminated in the 2022 midterm elections.
Except that, months later, when Trump declared that he would run in 2024, he rose once again in the presidential polls and, without almost ever sacrificing his golf game, he swept away all his Republican opponents with almost effortless ease.
What's more, he somehow managed to bypass all the legal obstacles that threatened him along the way.
The Democrats' confidence quickly turned into great premonition – and culminated, after the Trump-Biden debate, in such a certainty of defeat that the Party ousted its old standard-bearer, the incumbent president.
The emergence of Kamala Harris not only confused the race, but confused Trump himself, whose main talking point had been Joe Biden's weakness and fragility.
The two-year run was suddenly shortened to just over 90 days, making Trump's usual strategy of repeating insults until they persist much less effective.
But then, even with Harris' early and meteoric stardom, she returned to the stubborn average, a relative tie in the polls with Trump. And that's how things have remained since late August, with neither the Harris-worshipping convention, the strong debate performance, nor anything else managing to move the needle.
Steve Bannon, the insightful and chief architect of Trump's 2016 victory, once theorized to me that in close presidential elections – and, indeed, in most major global elections this century – little matters except the final two weeks of a campaign and the last impression on the minds of undecided voters.
It's all about the so-called 'October Surprise' or at least an unpredictable change in the autumn wind.
And so here we are.
Team Trump believes that Trump, the consummate salesman, always knows how to close a deal.
In October 2016, he handed over his phone, and thus his ill-advised tweets, to his son-in-law and chief advisor, Jared Kushner. His sudden discipline and focus on the grievances of working men and women in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania helped bring him victory in the electoral college.
Similarly, in 2020, he finally hit his stride in late October with a stronger-than-expected debate performance, tightening the race. Another week of 'Trump on message' could in truth I shook it at him.
One problem, however, with relying on Trump for this strong result, is that the “final impression” for voters comes down to his volatile mood swings and off-script impulses.
Virtually all of Trump's advisers have urged him to focus on the economy, arguably the most significant issue in this year's race.
But instead, in October of this year, Trump doubled down on his personal resentment toward Harris – and his anger that his successful campaign against Biden was “stolen.”
Even when he focuses on key political issues in his incoherent speeches, he tends to dismiss the economy, turning instead to immigration – the issue he believes won him over in 2016 and will bring his supporters home again in 2024.
But a byproduct here is that immigration tends to be an emotional issue for Trump, leading him to anger and often incoherence — not the ideal last impression.
Still, his team, while holding its breath, also recognizes that, in many past cases, Trump's “instincts” have worked in his favor.
If he wins, Pennsylvania will likely have been crucial. And if so, his winning streak, according to Trump's theory, could very well have been last weekend's “Return to Butler” rally, the scene of the first assassination attempt on him in rural Pennsylvania. .
Returning to Butler, remembering that extraordinary moment and focusing his considerable star power on this rural community, where a few thousand votes could win him election, was his own reality TV brainstorming.
If Trump wins, Pennsylvania will likely have been crucial. And if so, his winning streak, according to Trump's theory, could very well have been last weekend's “Return to Butler” rally.
It is, however, confusing for Team Trump – which has long equated “winning” the news cycle with winning – that Harris' campaign appears to avoid the headlines, notably by going silent after the great excitement of the Democratic convention and after her certain debate. victory in September.
Rather than dominate the news, Harris's strategy appears to have been to remain measured, moderate and – in the few interviews she has given – careful to avoid big headlines.
Her last week of high-profile media successes – Howard Stern, 60 Minutes, The View, the 'Call Her Daddy' podcast – can then be read in two very different ways: that she is comfortable enough with her lead role (the latest New York The Times/Siena poll has her 3 points ahead, although still tied in the swing states) to risk greater exposure – or that she is in panic, having suddenly decided that she must drastically change her media strategy.
In many ways, both campaigns continue to feel that the other side will be the key to victory: Donald Trump and the deep loathing felt by so many Americans is the Democrats' favored hand; and Kamala Harris and her visceral antipathy and deep suspicion in MAGA land are the Trumpers' ace.
In the usual dramatic arc of a presidential campaign, these personality politics are worked out in a final televised debate. But this time, leaving everyone hanging, there will be no other face-to-face debate – nor a final analysis in these elections.
This historic impasse may continue to persist. Without an “October surprise”, and with neither side prepared to give up, this could mean surprises in November, December and January.
