Miami Heat 2024-25 Season Preview: Jimmy Butler's Future Looks Ahead for East's Dark Horse

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We present the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy predictions for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

Heat in Miami

End of year 2023–24

Off-season moves

• Enrichment: Alec Burks, Nassir Little, Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson

• Subtraction: Caleba Martina, Delona Wrighta, Patty Mills i Orlando Robinsona

• Complete squad

The big question: Is there a path to a competitive-caliber offense?

Since Jimmy Butler's arrival, the Heat have made five straight playoff appearances and reached the NBA Finals twice. The combination of Butler's two-way genius and the evolution of Bam Adebayo as one of the NBA's most complete players and coach Erik Spoelstra's knack for turning any lineup into a top-10 defense makes for a high level. And when Butler's game turns to transcendence…

…the ceiling isn't that bad either.

However, getting there is not easy. Last season, the Heat finished in the bottom 10 in the offensive rankings, effective field goal percentage, how often they tried to make shots at the hoop, half-percentage of shots on attempts at the rim, points in the paint, and offensive effectiveness in clutch situations. and transition scoring effectiveness among other categories.

“We have to get better,” Spoelstra told reporters. “We have to innovate.”

And although Spo and his team certainly won't shy away from this challenge…

…an at best league-average offense probably won't be enough to overtake the best teams in the East.

“Spo always talks about being top-five defensively and offensively,” Butler told reporters. “That's a recipe for success.”

The recipe starts with better health, especially for Butler who, excluding Paul Bunyan's playoff run, has yet to play 65 games in a season in Miami, misses an average of 20 games a year and just turned 35 years old. (In a related story, he entered the camp without a contract extension; other related story, he didn't bring his pieces to media day.)

Injuries limited Butler, Adebayo and Tyler Herro to just 527 minutes combined last season and to just 118 minutes with trade deadline acquisition Terry Rozier (who quietly averaged 18-4-4 and 42% shooting from long range after the All-Star break). . Theoretically, more lineups with multiple shot creators and ball/catching threats should they have more ways to get good looks – especially if it really is Herro to work more off the ball and if Spoelstra really changes the attack a bit from an iso-heavy game closer to more fluid and faster sets.

“I'm definitely going to see what Terry, Tyler, Jimmy (and) Bam look like,” Spoelstra told reporters.

He will also have to consciously approach how he will fill the vacancy in the frontcourt left by Martin. Will he turn his attention to Haywood Highsmith, who re-signed to a two-year, $11 million contract? The 6-foot-7, 27-year-old with a 7-foot wingspan could prove to be a bargain if last year's 42% third-down shooting (albeit on just 84 attempts) — he could transition into a larger role.

There is also third-year forward Nikola Jović, who may offer the most utility as a scorer, complementary playmaker and offensive link:

After breaking the rotation in late December, the 20-year-old Serb has averaged eight points, four rebounds and just under two assists in 20.2 minutes per game, with a three-point shooting percentage of 39.7% on almost four attempts per day. Miami outscored opponents by 9.1 points per 100 when Jovic shared the floor with Butler and Adebayo; this advantage occurred in just 407 minutes, but deserves further study.

Whether it be Highsmith, Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr. or whoever else lines up next to Adebayo, it could be the Heat's central midfielder who will help the team's offense take the biggest step forward… especially if he keeps taking a step back.

After making 68 three-pointers in his first six seasons, Adebayo hit 17 of 52 shots from deep in 2023-24 and then made nine from the FIBA ​​line during Team USA's run to gold in Paris. He aims to make at least 100 three-pointers this season.

No one expects Bam to turn into Kristaps Porziņģis overnight. However, if his outward migration continues to increase, it could be a huge boon for Miami's often crowded offense, as better half-court spacing means wider driving lanes and a livelier drive-and-kick game.

“Hopefully in the second half of the season this will be an offense that will be seen everywhere,” Spoelstra said.

If that doesn't happen – if they once again struggle mightily to score, unable to stay on top of the game in the play-in, thanks to Butler's goal A $52.4 million player option is looming – then the Heat could face an existential questions. It's not about floors or ceilings, but what exactly they're already trying to build.

Best case scenario

A motivated Butler steps into his healthiest and most productive season in a Heat uniform, earning his first All-NBA First Team selection. Adebayo is keeping his promise to shoot more three-pointers, reducing the number of things he can't do on the basketball court to… zero? Spoelstra finds the right mix of shooting, playmaking and defense in the top five, and whoever is on the outside looking in – I think Jaquez – is pushing hard for the Sixth Man of the Year. We look up at March and are amazed to see that Miami is on track for a top-four seed and poised to make another deep postseason run.

If everything falls apart

Butler, Herro and Rozier continue to struggle with injuries, leaving Adebayo overloaded trying to take on superstar shot-creating responsibilities I plug every leak in defense. Young people are snorting in the bright lights, and with financial flexibility and limited assets to choose from, the cavalry is not in the way. The Heat enter another spring watching the teams they once beat pass them by in the postseason and league order, and forced to face a future full of difficult choices.

Spin fantasy

As one of the best defenders in the league, Adebayo is a reliable source of points, rebounds and steals, and he will go undrafted in the fourth round. If he continues to post 3s, this will be a fascinating development for his fantasy profile.

Butler's ADP is rising for late-to-mid-fourth-round picks – despite his unclear contract situation. Health remains an issue as Jimmy Buckets hasn't played more than 65 games since the 2016-17 season. Herro has also been dealing with injury issues and has underperformed compared to his seventh-round ADP. Likewise, Rozier is looking for a way to bounce back after his fantasy production faltered after being dealt to Miami last year.

Kel'el Ware is a sleeper I targeted late in the draft because he looked great in the preseason and his game reminds me of a mix of LaMarcus Aldridge and Dereck Lively II. Ware is the innovation Coach Spo is talking about. — And Tytus

2024–25 schedule

Slight gains in offense and overall health should push Miami above that number. However, how much further this will go remains an open question.