Summary
- The forecasts for hurricanes Helen and Milton were extremely accurate.
- Despite the powerful data they provide, meteorologists say they face unprecedented skepticism and criticism.
- Some blame political tensions ahead of the election, while others point to climate denial and the spread of misinformation on social media.
About five days ago Hurricane Milton hit Florida, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center predicted its path would be 12 miles from where the storm would later make landfall.
Forecasts for Hurricane Helen were equally accurate: The National Weather Service warned long before the storm made landfall “Record flooding” in North Carolina, about 400 miles offshoreIt will be “one of the most significant weather events” in the history of the state.
“The forecasts were quite accurate and no one can say they were surprised by the arrival and intensity of this storm,” said NBC 6 South Florida meteorologist and hurricane expert John Morales.
And yet, at a time when hurricane forecasts are more accurate, some meteorologists say they have never faced so much skepticism, hate and conspiratorial pressure.
Most of them are falsely accused on social media of dealing with hurricanes in Florida or Appalachia. Some have reported threats of violence online, while others say they have experienced personal attacks.
“Over the past two months, there has been such a rise in conspiracy theories, especially on social media, that it is undermining my ability to do my job effectively,” said Matthew Cappucci, meteorologist for MyRadar Weather and The Washington Post. . “People will see a false signal on the radar and think we are destroying a hurricane. There are people who think we are capable of bringing hurricanes to red states.”
Cappucci said social media commentators criticized him for his Harvard education and said he should be fired. Recently at a bar in Louisiana, Cappucci added, he was interrupted by a man who noticed his Miradar shirt and insisted that Cappucci work for Bill Gates.
“He spent the next 14 minutes harassing me about the changing weather,” Cappucci said.
Bradley Panovich, chief meteorologist at WCNC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the messages have become “more personal, more cruel, more persistent.”
“It is also consuming time and effort in weather forecasting,” he added.
The wave of opposition and attacks comes as meteorologists are also grappling with the emotional impact of more severe and damaging hurricanes as climate change intensifies.
“Losing people to a climate disaster is like a doctor losing a patient on the operating table,” said Kim Clocko McClain, a senior social scientist supporting the National Weather Service. “Prophets think they can save everyone. They take it personally.”
Hurricane forecasts have become more accurate
Hurricane forecasting has improved dramatically over the past 50 years.
Advances in computing power and a better understanding of the physics of storms now allow the National Hurricane Center to issue forecast cones — likely paths — before a tropical storm develops, said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with the storm research group. non-profit Climate Central.
“Our cones have gotten thinner,” Winkley said, meaning forecasters are more certain of the hurricane's path.
The National Hurricane Center every year publishes data on how well its forecasts matched reality, and the trend shows a decrease in track errors since the 1970s. So a storm forecast issued 36 hours earlier was about 370 kilometers away, according to NOAA. So far in the 2020s, that error is about 57 miles.
Cappucci called the center's forecast for Hurricane Milton “almost prescient” and one of the best in its history.
