The war in Syria has broken out again. An Islamist rebel alliance captures the city of Aleppo. “This instability continues to provide a breeding ground for terrorist groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, threatening security throughout the region,” said political scientist Elham Manaea.
In a lightning offensive, an alliance of Islamic jihadi rebels captured the city of Aleppo. Assad's forces offered little resistance. We spoke to political scientist Elham Manea about the factors driving this progress and the dangers that come with it. The adjunct professor teaches Middle East geopolitics, Islamism and human rights at the University of Zurich.
Manea, who holds dual Swiss and Yemeni citizenship, grew up in several Arab and Western countries. She has lived in Bern for more than twenty years.Image: trapezoid
Ms. Manea, were the attacks on the Assad regime an accident?
Elem Manea: It is well known that the Islamic jihadist rebel alliance has been preparing for an offensive for more than two years. Surprisingly, however, Aleppo was captured without significant resistance.
How did the rebels conquer Aleppo so quickly?
Dynamics within the Syrian army and government played a crucial role in the swift and unimpeded takeover. Problems such as low morale, corruption and logistical challenges have hampered the regime's ability to respond effectively. These internal weaknesses leave the regime vulnerable to sudden and well-coordinated attacks.
Assad's biggest ally, Russia, is currently engaged in its own war. So does this situation contribute to current developments?
Russia's current focus on its own military operations, particularly in Ukraine, has affected developments in Syria. Russia remains a major backer of Assad's regime and has recently conducted airstrikes in support of the Syrian army. However, an extensive military commitment in Ukraine could affect Russia's resources and operational capabilities in Syria. These conditions may make it easier for the rebels to carry out their latest offensive.
The offensive triggered a counterattack by Syrian regime forces and Russian and Syrian airstrikes.Image: trapezoid
“It's amazing that Aleppo was taken without any significant resistance.”
The Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah supports the Assad regime in the Syrian war. Is this attack also a good time, given the tensions in the Middle East?
The timing of the rebel attack was actually favorable. After the October 7 massacre, the war in Gaza, and Hezbollah's attack on Israel, Assad's main allies, primarily Iran and Hezbollah, became deeply involved in the Gaza crisis. This reallocation of resources and attention has created a strategic vacuum in Syria and weakened the Assad regime’s ability to respond. Hezbollah is burdened by its involvement in Gaza and the Israel-Lebanon border, while Iran is focused on its regional goals, allowing the rebels to exploit this weakness.
Why is Assad so dependent on support?
Assad's regime has been weakened for a number of reasons. Internal conflict and corruption reduced force efficiency and morale. In addition, the Syrian armed forces are also suffering from the long-term civil war. The ongoing economic crisis further depletes resources and limits the ability to wage war.
“Instability in Syria continues to provide a breeding ground for terrorist groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, threatening security throughout the region.”
What kind of coalition controls Aleppo now?
The rebel alliance is led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS originates from the Nusra Front, which was originally an offshoot of the terrorist group Al Qaeda. Although HTS has officially announced its break with Al Qaeda, the group continues to follow a jihadist ideology. The alliance also includes other militant groups with similar ideologies who have collaborated in different camps in the past.
On December 2, 2024, a gunman from the Islamic organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham at the Narab military airport in Aleppo, Syria. Image: trapezoid
Why do these groups act together?
Rebels operate together to increase military effectiveness and better coordinate their strategic objectives. In conflicts like the Syrian civil war, where different actors vie for dominance, cooperation is often crucial to gaining or defending territory. Ideological similarities, particularly alignment with the jihadi agenda, facilitate this cooperation.
Who supports the alliance?
The coalition is supported by regional and international actors interested in weakening Assad's regime. These are private networks and individuals who provide financial, logistical and military assistance. Countries such as Türkiye have historically supported jihadist groups in Syria, particularly in the country's northwest, to advance their geopolitical interests.
What about the Gulf countries?
Compared to when the Syrian civil war began, Gulf states no longer directly support HTS. Their position has changed as they increasingly work to reintegrate Assad's regime into the Arab League and normalize diplomatic ties with Syria. This strategic adjustment by the Gulf states reflects the priority given to geopolitical stability in the region and has led to the isolation of HTS in the Arab world.
What are the goals of the Rebel Alliance?
The rebels' main goal is to overthrow the Assad regime and take control of Syria. HTS has distanced itself from the global jihadist agenda and is focused on a Syrian solution. They seek to establish a government that reflects their ideology and have established quasi-governmental structures in areas they control.
“This reallocation of resources and attention has resulted in a strategic vacuum in Syria.”
What interests does Russia have in supporting Assad?
Russia views Syria as an important geopolitical ally in the Middle East. Access to Syrian military bases, especially the Tartus naval base, is very important for Russia. Russia has also used the conflict to strengthen its military presence and influence in the region.
What about Iran?
Iran supports the Assad regime to ensure its strategic influence in the Middle East and maintains land ties with its Lebanese allies, especially Hezbollah. Syria is an important corridor for the transportation of weapons and logistical support to Hezbollah. The historical roots of this close relationship date back to the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran, when Syria was the only Arab country to openly support Iran during the Iran-Iraq war.
Children injured in an airstrike are treated at a hospital in Idlib, northern Syria, on December 1, 2024.Image: trapezoid
How dangerous is the current situation in Syria and the entire Middle East?
The current situation in Syria is extremely dangerous and has the potential to destabilize the entire region. The success of the recent rebellion and the subsequent counterattack by the Assad regime and its allies have led to a renewed escalation of violence, significantly exacerbating Syria's humanitarian crisis. This instability continues to provide a breeding ground for terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, threatening security throughout the region. The situation remains unstable and requires international attention, de-escalation efforts and humanitarian support.
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