A storm surge is an abnormal rise in water level during a storm – strong hurricane winds push a wave of water toward the coast as the depth becomes shallower. Although the main cause of the storm is wind, it is also affected by the direction of the storm, the shape of the ocean floor, and the low pressure within the storm, which contributes to some of the bulling effect.
Because the storm surge can quickly flood coastal areas and move inland, it is often one of the most serious threats from a hurricane.
In the case of Hurricane Milton, the topography of Florida's west coast along the Gulf of Mexico contributes to the danger, as it is shallow and has a gentle underwater slope.
“The continental shelf is quite shallow,” Fritz said. “It doesn’t take much effort.”
Chris Slocum, a physical scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Satellite Research and Applications Center, said Milton was approaching from the southeast — an angle that would push water directly onto the continental shelf.
Furthermore, climate change-induced sea level rise has also increased the risk of flooding in the region.
It's unclear where the storm will make landfall, and small changes could make a big difference in certain areas like Tampa Bay.
On Tuesday night, Milton “climbed to the summit,” according to the National Hurricane Center forecast. Little variation is expected to continue as the storm approaches land, which could change its trajectory by 5 to 10 miles. (A Forecast discussion The National Hurricane Center says forecasts could be off by about 40 miles if a storm is within 24 hours of potential impact.
A Forecast discussionThe National Hurricane Center said the forecast could close in Abu40 million tonsThat's when a storm hits me24 hourss of a possible landing.
Landing is expected somewhere between Tampa Bay and Fort Myers, with the latest models suggesting Milton's eye could land near Sarasota.
A major hurricane has not directly hit Tampa Bay since 1921. 2015 report Risk modeling firm Karen Clark & Co ranks it as one of the most vulnerable places in the United States for flooding from storm surge caused by a hurricane, especially because its water table can act like a giant funnel, channeling and trapping flood waters into the bay. .
The city's massive urban development over the past century has put more people and coastal structures in danger. The metropolitan area has more than 3 million inhabitants.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record in west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said in a statement Tuesday.
Milton is expected to grow and its winds will weaken as it approaches land; Both factors can affect large storms.
“More intense storms will be able to move more water, and bigger storms will be able to move more water,” Slocum said.
Local authorities in Pinellas County, which includes the cities of Clearwater and St. Petersburg, called the storm forecast “unsustainable” and urged residents to comply with mandatory evacuation orders.
“It’s the ocean coming into your living room,” Pinellas County Emergency Management Director Kathy Perkins said at a news conference Tuesday. “It’s fast, the rising water has a lot of pressure behind it. So don’t think you’ll be able to drive it.”
Even the east coast of Florida could see storms as Milton is expected to cross the peninsula and remain a hurricane on its way back over the Atlantic Ocean. In doing so, heavy air will be drawn into the low-pressure system, potentially pulling water toward the shore.
Northeast Florida could experience storm surges of 3 to 5 feet, Hurricane Center Project.
Storm surge is a serious concern for any major hurricane, which NOAA classifies as Category 3 or higher. But even low-level storms can produce catastrophic storms.
Hurricane Katrina, which reached Category 5 intensity but hit Louisiana as a Category 3 storm in 2005, produced a record storm surge of 27.8 feet. In 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast as a Category 2 storm and generated a 15-foot storm surge on Galveston Island.
