Next Sunday, Sir Keir Starmer will celebrate his first 100 days in office. When his press secretary was asked before the big day whether the Prime Minister thought it was a successful start, he replied simply: “It's up to the public to decide.”
The verdict has been passed and it is not good: Sir Keira approval ratings in polls last week fell to -33, down 44 points from its post-election high, while one poll showed Labor just one point ahead of the Tories.
A YouGov poll this weekend shows that almost half of Labor voters in the last general election feel let down so far, with six in ten disapproving of the government's performance so far and one in six approving of Starmer's government.
Sir Keir will undoubtedly say that it is not about the first 100 days but about “the next decade of national renewal”. And maybe he's right. How can you predict the fate of a political leader based on 100 days?
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The late great Alistair Cooke, in one of his letters from America, said that making a big deal in the first 100 days was a “silly custom”.
And in a sense he is right. First, how can anyone measure up to the leader for whom this mythical measure was used, Franklin D. Roosevelt? In his first 100 days in office, he pushed through a record number of bills in an attempt to lift America from the clutches of the Great Depression and confront a national crisis.
Nothing like this has ever been seen before or since. You can understand why vain Donald Trump dismissed the idea of 100 days as a “ridiculous standard” (while also being very protective of it and setting up a website dedicated to his first 100 days).
FDR aside, there are reasons why the first 100 days are a useful measure. It sets the tone for the premiere and tells us something about the leader's momentum.
In these first weeks, immediately after the election victory, the Prime Minister is at the peak of his popularity and political capital.
The first 100 days can therefore be seen as a transitional stage during which we can take stock and ask ourselves whether the leader has succeeded or failed to meet the moment.
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Sir Keir and his wife Lady Victoria. Photo: PA
100 days Sir Keir would like to forget
For Sir Keir, it's been 100 days that, in many ways, he would like to forget. By all accounts it was a disappointing start. From the polls to the management of the party and the running of No 10, Sir Keir has struggled.
That the Prime Minister felt compelled to review his top team and replace his chief of staff Sue Gray on the eve of his 100-day anniversary says it all.
Instead of using the first 100 days to shout out all the things the Labor government has done, the Prime Minister caused a reset of his government.
The fresh start promised in the election campaign gave way to a false start when his No 10 operation was paralyzed by infighting and his personal ratings plummeted after argues about freebies and his government became so lost in itself that it forgot to tell the story of change and show it to the public.
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Starmer: Repaying gifts is 'right'.
“Extremely frustrating” start
It was, admits one senior government official, an “extremely frustrating” period in which the government's work was drowned out by the mess of power struggles in Downing Street and rows over concert tickets, glasses and suits.
“Many of Starmer's early decisions were aimed at delivering on his manifesto promises and the economy. We have pushed through tenant reform, making work pay, we are creating GB Energy and we are pushing through planning reform,” says another senior figure.
“A lot of what we did was to put things on a path that would benefit citizens. The worst thing for everyone and every member of the cabinet is not to talk about the change that the country elected us to make.
“We had a little success (because of the freebies), but I think it can be fixed because it is a matter of optics and not a waste of taxpayers' money. “It's more about the country wanting the Prime Minister to lead on the issues that are important to them – the cost of living, the NHS, the economy – and when they don't see that it's frustrating.”
Sir Keir with Prince George and the Prince of Wales in the stands after the final whistle of the Euro 2024 final. Photo: PA
“What bad conditions is this country in?”
It was also, admit experts Nos. 10 and 11, much more difficult than they expected.
Whether it is the race riots that swept through our cities shortly after the election of Labor, the prison crisis or the immediate funding shortfalls that the Chancellor said she had noticed, the new administration is beset by challenges .
Sir Keir arrives with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. Photo: PA
“In the first 100 days it was very clear how bad the conditions were for the country,” says one senior government official.
Add to that the crisis in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine, and you have a prime minister and a new team with a truly full plate.
But during these first 100 days it was also clear what a bad condition the prime minister's office was in.
Sir Keir addresses the UN General Assembly. Photo: AP
The Prime Minister took a huge risk
You may not know the heroes behind the big black doors of Number 10 or what they do, but what will be obvious to you is that the operation will need to be overhauled in the first three months of the reign as it has become dysfunctional, toxic and inappropriate. fit for purpose, does not bode well.
Because it raises a very important question: if the Prime Minister can't run Downing Street, how the hell will he run the country?
The fact that Sir Keir moved last week to sort out his No 10 operation was a defining moment in his first term.
By removing Sue Gray as chief of staff – the most powerful unelected figure in the government – and replacing her with his trusted ally and key political adviser Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister took a huge risk.
That's because he replaced a seasoned Whitehall operator with more than 30 years of government experience with a political strategist who was the mastermind behind the election victory. But the big unknown is whether McSweeney will be able to run the government like he ran the election.
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Why did Sue Gray quit?
Does McSweeney have the experience to lead the government?
The whole point of bringing Mrs Gray into the No. 10 operation is that she understood the machinery of government and how to pull the levers of Whitehall to get things done.
McSweeney may be a brilliant political activist, but does he have the experience to actually run a government? Sir Keir has probably concluded in the past that this is not the case and that is why he hired Ms Gray.
Ms Gray's friends tell me she felt Sir Keir should replace the team that ran his office as leader of the opposition with more of the big beasts now that he was at the helm of government.
They say she insisted on hiring new people who she felt had the necessary experience – the reason Sir Keir didn't have a principal private secretary, the key mandarin for every prime minister, until Ms Gray was removed was because she and others were locked in a turf war over it.
You know the tensions that arose when Ms Gray went to war with advisers – over their positions, access to the prime minister, salaries and readiness to serve in government – because she became the subject of endless briefings.
The more Mrs Gray appeared in the press, the more untenable she became aware that her position would become when the Prime Minister ran out of patience.
Sir Keir did move, definitely. But the fact that his operation became so toxic, and that some members of his team continued to debrief even though he absolutely hated it, does not bode well for the Prime Minister: it speaks to dysfunction in his operation – and it is rarely one person from whom this dysfunction flows .
Starmer would probably like to start over
The prime minister can at least take solace in the fact that most of the criticism a leader faces in his first 100 days does not necessarily define his success.
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President Bill Clinton got off to a shaky start in his first term and became the second Democratic president since Roosevelt to win a second term.
But if, as one of Sir Keir's allies told me, “every day in government business”, then it must also be said that Sir Keir's first 100 days were a terrible waste as the Prime Minister struggled to set the agenda and keep his own house in order.
He is a prime minister who would probably like to forget his first 100 days completely and start over.
There will be an investment summit on Monday, and the budget later this month. This government's goal is to “be boring” and get back to the business of governing.
The next election is still a long way off, Sir Keir has a clear majority and a huge megaphone.
Perhaps he will be able to afford to write off the first three months if he manages to complete the next few months. But after one false start, he can't afford another.
