But campaigns are not won by national votes (a fact that became gut-wrenchingly clear to Gore, who won the popular vote but lost after a highly disputed recount in Florida and subsequent Supreme Court ruling that made George W. Bush president). They are won by often very small shifts in specific states and voter demographic groups. Had Clinton—one of the most talented campaigners and rousing political speech-givers in the modern political era—campaigned hard in then–swing state Missouri, could he have flipped it to Gore? Even Arkansas, Clinton’s home state, might have been in contention if Clinton had campaigned heavily there for his vice president.
Not using Clinton in the 2000 campaign was a “grave error,” Matt Bennett, co-founder and executive vice president for public affairs of the centrist group Third Way, told me. “Gore massively overestimated how people felt about Lewinsky.”
The dynamics are not exactly the same with Biden and Harris. He’s not—to put it kindly—the energetic campaigner and compelling speaker Clinton was. And while the former president’s troubles had to do with voter views of his character, the electorate was happy with his job performance. Voters, frustrated by the lingering effects of inflation (which itself is way down), grade Biden poorly despite record job creation, strong economic growth, and a long list of legislative accomplishments. He is often the wrong messenger for his own agenda. Republicans see a president who has passed progressive items such as gun safety and climate change legislation and issued executive orders forgiving student loan debt, and are aghast. But Democratic Party progressives see an old white man who hasn’t done enough on those priorities and who is the wrong voice to rally constituencies around perhaps the most galvanizing Democratic issue of this campaign: abortion rights.
