Kamala Harris' fate in 2024 may involve unions in Nevada as Republicans gain ground on the battlefield

On Wednesday afternoon, under blazing sun and a clear blue sky, Claudia Monreal and Artenasa Orocco stopped on a neighboring street in East Vegas.

Armed with political leaflets and a phone app showing where to go, as temperatures rose, they started knocking on doors. Nevada approached 100 degrees.

Election Day is fast approaching in the battleground state, and for Democrats, victory in the state may depend on voter turnout, as Republicans have all but destroyed Democrats' voter registration advantage in the state.

This is where the Culinary Workers Union comes into play. The union representing 60,000 service workers in Las Vegas and Reno has been helping Democrats win in Nevada for years. In August, she endorsed Harris for president.

Both Monreal and Orocco are union members who are on leave from their jobs at a Vegas casino ahead of the upcoming election to help with voter turnout and urge them to support Democrats in November.

Monreal has been knocking on the door for three weeks. She didn't count how many doors she personally reached, but she plans to continue to increase the intensity of her campaigning before Election Day.

Overall, 450 union canvassers knocked on more than one million doors in the state in 2022, the largest program ever.

“A lot of people are very hospitable. If they are still unsure, they ask for information. We are able to provide them with fact-based information,” Monreal said of her experience this year.

The union targets registered Democrats and independent union members, as well as the general public. First and foremost, Monreal makes sure he is registered to vote and has a voting plan before discussing union-endorsed Democrats.

The mother of five said the biggest problems she faces are economic ones, including skyrocketing rents and higher prices.

Orocco, a mother of three adult daughters, agreed that cost of living is also the most important issue when dealing with voters, but she also said that reproductive rights are another important issue.

“Women's rights are important,” she said. “Nobody can come in and tell us, 'You have to do this,' unless they know each person's situation, and that is a very serious problem.”

At the bus stop, they talk to an elderly man sitting on the patio for a few minutes in Spanish and then leave him leaflets.

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Union members are working to ensure that votes for Kamala Harris, Sen. Jacky Rosen, House Democrats and other candidates are discarded. They first ask people about their voter registration and voting plans, then provide information about why the union endorsed Harris. In the 2022 midterms, canvassers from the Culinary Workers Union knocked on over a million doors

Monreal and Orocco talk to a man about voting in Spanish

When canvassers don't get people to the door, they leave flyers announcing their support and reminding them that Election Day is November 5

Women are calling on voters to cast ballots for Vice President Kamala Harris and re-elect Senator Jacky Rosen, Democratic House members in Nevada, and support other Democrats in voting no.

Nevada is a deep purple state. President Biden won it in 2020 by 35,000 votes. The latest polls show a tighter competition between Harris and Trump, with the Democratic candidate leading by one point in the Real Clear Politics average.

DailyMail.com and JL Partners' electoral model assumes Trump is the favorite to win the state.

Democrats' strategy in Nevada focuses on voter turnout with the cooperation of labor groups, said Daniel Lee, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

“It was a major part of the Harry Reid machine,” Lee said, referring to the labor infrastructure built by the late Senate Majority Leader in the state. “It's something that has haunted me even since his death.”

Harris recognizes how much power the union still holds when it comes to helping get the vote done. In less than 24 hours of campaigning in the state, Harris first stopped to meet with Culinary Workers Union leaders and members Wednesday evening outside her town hall. Nevada Teamsters and SEIU are among other groups that have also endorsed the vice president.

Vice President Kamala Harris greeted by U.S. Representatives Susie Lee and Steven Horsford upon her arrival in Las Vegas on October 20. The Culinary Workers' Union is seeking the support of all three

But when it comes to Nevada, Democrats are losing ground, at least when it comes to voter registration. In 2020, they were about five points ahead. Now their advantage is only one point.

In the midterms, Democrats were able to retain the Senate seat in Nevada. But Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak was ousted by Republican Joe Lombardo.

One of the biggest challenges for Sisolak was economics. Nevada, with its heavy tourism and service-industry economy, has been decimated by the coronavirus pandemic.

While the unemployment rate nationwide remains near historic lows at 4.1%. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate of all states at 5.5 percent. During the 2020 pandemic, it peaked at 13.5% annually before declining.

The travel industry has largely recovered, with most indicators reaching pre-pandemic levels by early 2023. For some, however, memories and some lingering financial impacts remain as costs have also risen.

Trump is also trying to drum up support from industry workers. At a June rally in Las Vegas, he proposed eliminating tip taxes for thousands of service workers at casinos, restaurants and hotels in the state.

Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Las Vegas on September 13. In June, during another visit to the state, he proposed eliminating tax on tips. Republicans gained ground in Nevada when it comes to voter registration in the state. The gap between them has fallen from around five points in 2020 to one point in 2024

The union rejected the proposal, with its secretary-treasurer saying that help was definitely needed but that workers “are smart enough to know the difference between real solutions and crazy campaign promises.”

Harris also signaled support for eliminating tip taxes, which Trump accuses her of copying. Democrats have introduced a bill in Congress, but Nevada already has a sub-minimum wage ban in the state.

The former president is also gaining ground among Latino voters. A new Suffolk University poll shows Harris leading Trump among Latino voters in the state 56 to 40 percent.

While Democrats' support hasn't dropped on a percentage basis, Trump's numbers are slowly rising, stripping the vice president of the 24-26 point lead Biden had in 2020 over Latino voters in the state.

But for Monreal and Orocco, Latino support for Trump did not come up in their conversations on the ground. Their union is the largest Latino organization in the state.

Overall, as they made their case, they said their contact with voters in various Vegas neighborhoods was positive. Wednesday was one of the best days spent outdoors. Although temperatures were near triple digits, outside temperatures had previously been close to 110 degrees.

When they're not meeting voters at their doors, they leave fliers reminding people of the upcoming election and explaining why they support Democrats.

Monreal and Orocco with Harris supporter Darcy Gouveia who answered as they knocked on doors in Las Vegas

An hour after their acquisition, Darcy Gouveia opens the door. After introducing himself, the first series of questions asks whether Darcy is registered and whether he intends to vote.

Gouveia is resolute on this front. He also knows exactly who he will vote for: Harris.

“I think she is very strong and would be good to be president,” he said.

The biggest problem he faces is high prices, from rent to gas and food costs. While he doesn't like everything that's going on in the Biden administration, he believes the Biden administration is trying and doing its best to address this issue.

As for Trump, he was unimpressed.

“Oh please, not him,” Gouveia said, rolling his eyes before closing the front door.