Joker: Folie à Deux is on track to suffer a catastrophic financial loss of up to $200m (£153m) as its poor box office run continues amid critical brickbats and dismal audience ratings.
According to a report in Variety, industry analysts said that Joker: Folly a Dukes is expected to gross $65 million at the North American box office and about $215 million elsewhere for a total of $280 million – less than the estimated $300 million the film cost to produce and promote. . Due to revenue splits in theaters, Variety says the film actually needs to earn around $450 million to break even, though studio Warner Bros. says the break-even number is actually $375 million. In an effort to recoup revenue, the film opens on October 29 on home entertainment and streaming platforms. Meanwhile the rating website Rotten Tomatoes has recorded an audience score of 32%.
The film is estimated to cost the producers between $125m and $200m as a result. However a statement from Warner Bros denied the accuracy of the figures, saying “any estimates suggested by anonymous 'insiders' or 'competition executives' are completely false and continue the trend of reporting rumors as true.”
All this is in stark contrast to the reception of the first Joker film. With the same star, Joaquin Phoenix and director Todd Phillips, Joker won the prestigious Golden Lion Award at the Venice Film Festival at its premiere in 2019, as well as the Oscar for Best Actor for Phoenix; It was also a huge commercial success, earning $1.08bn at the worldwide box office, including £335m in North America.
Blame for the failure of Folie à Deux is divided among several factors. The first film's surprise success put its director and co-writer Phillips in a powerful position. DC Studios allowed him to ignore or ignore requests made by the custodian of the Batman/Joker intellectual property. In retrospect, his decision to turn Folly à Deux into a musical, starring Lady Gaga, appears to have alienated the comic book fan base, a key segment of the audience if a film is to be a smash hit.
Screen International's box office editor Charles Kant says Phillips could face a slump. “Hollywood's mantra has always been to offer the audience the same, but different. With Joker: Folly a Deux, Todd Phillips seems to have provided the wrong kind of distinction. Not only was the film very different from the first film, but mainstream audiences got the message that people loved the first Joker for the wrong reasons. In general, people are not in a hurry to pay for cursing. A fair summary of what the Foley Dukes actually offer has become irrelevant – and that's the message the fans have received.
While the Joker movie doesn't even remotely resemble a typical comic-book superhero movie, Hollywood is coming to terms with “superhero fatigue” as seemingly innocuous characters and brands' follow-ups record disappointing statistics. Films like Aquaman and The Lost Kingdom ($434m worldwide) and The Marvels ($200m worldwide) performed well below expectations – while Deadpool and Wolverine ($1.33bn) exceeded them.
The inflated cost of making sequels also played a role, with Phoenix and Phillips earning $20 million each. Lady Gaga $12 million
Kant adds: “The image now seems to be caught in a spiral of destruction. Reports of its failure scare the wider audience needed to reduce the flow of red ink on the balance sheet. Indeed, Folie à Deux has its fans, and among IMDb users who have rated it 8, 9 or 10 so far, 18% have given it an 8, 9 or 10. Sure, it's a minority, but those scores don't show that it's become a stigma. Total failure.”
