Israel approves ceasefire with Hezbollah

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Israel has agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. The agreement will take effect next Wednesday morning and is subject to conditions imposed by Israel.

More than a year after the war with Lebanon's Hezbollah militia broke out, Israel's security cabinet, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, approved a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, Israeli media reported unanimously. The bill will come into effect on Wednesday morning, news portal ynet and broadcaster Channel 12 reported. It had previously been reported that the weapons were initially supposed to remain silent for 60 days. “The duration of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon,” Netanyahu warned on television.

According to initial unconfirmed reports, once the fighting ceases, militiamen loyal to Iran will first withdraw behind the Litani River, which is about 30 kilometers north of the de facto Israeli-Lebanese border. Israeli ground forces should withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days. Netanyahu stressed: “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack.”

Hezbollah should stay away from borders

The media in the negotiating community unanimously reported that in order to prevent the return of Hezbollah militants, Lebanese army soldiers who were not actually involved in the war should be stationed in the border area while Israel withdraws its troops. The agreement will be overseen by a group of countries led by the United States, as well as France, Lebanon, Israel and UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping force that has been in Lebanon for many years. The supervisory committee should also ensure that militias no longer arm themselves. Next, Israel and Lebanon should also negotiate on the disputed border issue.

Based on the 2006 United Nations resolution

According to existing reports, the agreement is largely in line with UN Resolution 1701, which sought in vain to permanently end violence after the last war in 2006. American mediator Amos Hochstein therefore dubbed the terms of the new agreement “1701 Plus.”

The Israeli government also wants to protect itself in the event that Hezbollah violates the agreement and the Lebanese army and the international group of countries remain inactive – such as in the event that new militias attack Israel. In this case, Israel hopes that the United States will guarantee in writing its right to intervene militarily in Lebanon at any time. However, the letter is not part of the ceasefire agreement. “We retain full freedom of military action with the full consent of the United States,” Netanyahu said on television.

According to unconfirmed Israeli media reports, Israel should have the right to immediately respond militarily to immediate threats. For example, if you want to launch a missile. However, in cases where the threat “continues to evolve”, such as tunneling for attack, Israel must first alert the international group of countries.

A key element of the deal also revolves around the arsenal of Hezbollah, which experts said was one of the world's most powerful paramilitary groups before the war began. The Lebanese government (currently only in office) should monitor all weapons sales to the country and their production to ensure they do not fall into the hands of Hezbollah or other armed groups.

Questions about Hezbollah weapons regulation

Because Hezbollah is so powerful in Lebanon and the state has so little control over it, it is doubtful whether Hezbollah can be prevented from re-arming itself. Such oversight was already provided for in UN Resolution 1701 of 2006 – but Hezbollah has still been able to significantly expand its arsenal since then. According to experts, much of the militia's weapons, including thousands of missiles and drones, come from Iran, including overland via Syria.

There are also doubts about whether the planned deployment of a total of 10,000 Lebanese army troops, 5,000 of whom are already in the south, will help quell the conflict. The army was poorly funded and considered very weak, and if fighting resumed it was likely to be bogged down rather than prevented. According to UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL, 45 Lebanese soldiers have been killed since the war began.

Hezbollah no longer relies on Gaza for shelling

According to its own statement, the militia fired at Israel in order to support Islamic Hamas and launched a terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, triggering the Gaza War. According to Israeli military data, Hezbollah has fired more than 17,000 rockets into Israel since the war began. Originally, the militiamen only wanted to end the shelling after a ceasefire was reached in the Gaza Strip. She has given up on this condition now.

On the Lebanese side, massive Israeli air and ground attacks reduced many villages and communities to rubble. Analysis by ACLED, a British data project, found that Israel carried out roughly five times as many attacks in Lebanon than Hezbollah carried out attacks in Israel. In response to requests, the Israeli military stated that a total of approximately 12,000 targets in Lebanon had been bombed. The heaviest airstrikes on greater Beirut occurred hours before the ceasefire was announced.

Since September, the Israeli army has massively expanded its attacks on Hezbollah and soon began a ground offensive. According to official figures, more than 3,700 people have been killed and about 15,500 injured in Israeli attacks in Lebanon since the war began. The information did not distinguish between civilians and armed personnel. More than 800,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced by the civil war, with hundreds of thousands more fleeing to neighboring Syria.

During the same period in Israel, Hezbollah attacks killed 76 people, mostly civilians, injured more than 700 and caused significant property damage. However, Israel's missile defense system intercepted most of the projectiles fired by pro-Iranian militiamen. About 60,000 residents in northern Israel were evacuated.

Residents of northern Israeli towns criticized the ceasefire. “I don’t understand how we went from total victory to total surrender,” said Avichai Stern, the mayor of the border town of Kiryat Shmona. Netanyahu met with representatives of northern cities to persuade them to cease fire. Opposition politicians also complained that the ceasefire came too soon and that Hezbollah was not sufficiently weakened. (Sudanese Development Authority/Department of Political Affairs/Lynn)

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