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Iran's missile barrage against Israel this month, following a similar large-scale attack in April, shows the value, as well as the deficiencies, of US and allied missile defenses in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China, analysts say.
While the differences between the two scenarios limit the lessons that can be learned, the nearly 400 different types of missiles Iran has fired at Israel this year give the U.S. and China some insight into what works and what doesn't.
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For Washington, Iran's attack on October 1 could be the biggest demonstration yet of ballistic missiles fired at modern defenses, that Beijing's missiles would be more difficult to intercept than Iran's and would require strike capabilities to be intercepted. counterattacked. S. of Singapore. Colin Koh of the Rajaratnam School of International Studies said the attack was widespread.
“If we look through the lens of absolute deterrence, we can no longer hope for deterrence by simply denying it – that is, the hope that an effective defense can diminish the effectiveness of a missile attack,” Koh said. “Deterrence through punishment may have to become the norm going forward.”
There is no immediate threat of missile conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. The distance, thousands of kilometers, is greater than that of the Middle East. China's weapons are more advanced, including guided warheads and precision guidance.
And the targets are spread across regions, making a mass attack difficult.
The United States has developed and deployed new weapons in the region to counter China this year, including AIM-174B air-to-air missiles and the Philippines' Typhoon land-based missile batteries, which can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles. .
The US Indo-Pacific Command and China's Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
China's missiles have greater range and are less accurate
On the other hand, being better informed about how offensive and defensive systems work in the wake of Iran's missile fusillade — many were intercepted — could reduce the likelihood of conflict, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. .
“Any military planning a long-range missile attack needs to plan for the potential effects of missile defense,” Panda said.
“Of course, without clarity on the performance of a given missile defense system, this could lead to massive escalation.”
Israel's layers of air and missile defense – from its long-range aeronautical system to its Iron Dome shield to deal with slower, less complex threats – are built for the threats it faces: mixed with rockets fired from guided ballistic missiles. forces like Iran. Only on Israel's borders.
The picture is very different in the Indo-Pacific region for the US and its allies, who use Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Patriot systems, THAAD and sea-based Aegis systems for missile defense.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Defense Project, the accuracy of China's DF-26, its most conventional intermediate-range ballistic missile, is estimated at 150 meters (500 feet).
Its DF-21 is short-range, although some variants are accurate to 50 meters.
Both can hit most US and allied targets in the region. The DF-26 could reach Guam, site of a major US military installation. The Pentagon estimates that China may have hundreds of missiles.
In contrast, Iranian missiles like the Fattah-1 are theoretically more accurate – within tens of meters – but have a much shorter range. The number of these new missiles is not public, but U.S. Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie told Congress last year that Iran has more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of all types.
Malcolm Davies, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said China's capabilities have surpassed Iran's in other respects.
Missile attacks will likely be coordinated with anti-satellite attacks and cyber warfare, both designed to complicate defenses.
“Western (integrated air and missile defense) systems in the Indo-Pacific region will have a much more difficult time defeating a large Chinese missile attack comprised of hundreds or thousands of missiles compared to the capabilities of the Iranians,” Davis said.
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