After 100 days in office, Iran's moderate and conservative President Masoud Peseshkian must overcome two dangerous crises.
After 100 days in office, Iran's moderate and conservative President Masoud Peseshkian must deal with two dangerous crises: rising social tensions at home and a possible looming foreign policy war with Israel. While the military leadership of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards is threatening its old foes Israel and the United States in response to the latest retaliatory attacks, popular criticism of strict Islamic dress codes is growing again.
Iran's centers of power are occupied by loyal followers
The changes in Iranian politics were shown in a parliamentary debate a few months ago in which Peseshkian defended his cabinet against criticism from conservative hard-liners against rival camps. In an unprecedented move, the president announced that his cabinet had been approved by religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “A final vote so that we can form a government,” Peseshkian asked lawmakers at the time. Observers interpreted this as a sign of Peseshkian's complete submission to state leadership. Unlike many countries, in Iran the president is not the head of state, but the head of government. Actual power lies in the hands of religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
The president explained that his cabinet had been approved by religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Image source: sda
Peseshkian belongs to the camp of the reform movement, whose supporters insist on the status quo but want to reform the authoritarian system from within. But many citizens are critical not only of hard-liners but also of the reformists around Peseshkian, as evidenced by historically low turnout in parliamentary and presidential elections. The two factions have long been at odds. Industry insiders believe that Peseshkian's success lies in the fact that he united the two camps that support “national reconciliation” with the spirit of the system.
Foreign policy future uncertain
Along with Abbas Araghchi, Peseshkian secured an experienced diplomat as a foreign policy expert to improve tense relations with the West. But that now seems impossible given the military conflict with Israel. Relations with Germany also hit a new low after the judiciary executed Jamshid Shamahead, a German-Iranian. Isolated from the West, cooperation with Russia and China remains – however, this alliance has been met with much criticism in the country.
The outcome of the US election will also have a significant impact on the Islamic Republic's foreign policy strategy. A president taking a tough stance on Iran could further escalate tensions in the Middle East. Iran's leadership does not have fond memories of Donald Trump, who unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, imposed new sanctions and designated the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization.
Conflict with Israel risks escalating
Iran's political leadership is once again on the brink of conflict with its old enemy Israel. After recent direct military strikes, the conflict risks escalating. “It would be a mistake not to view the developments of the past few months as a failure,” said an insider in Tehran familiar with the government’s thinking. Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, Mossad, is widely seen as superior. “It's bitter, but it's true.”
However, according to experts, Peseshkian plays only a minor role in the Islamic Republic's military thinking. Central decisions are made by Khamenei, the powerful Revolutionary Guards and the General Staff. The president has repeatedly called for a diplomatic solution to the problem. On Sunday, Peseshkian said a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza could influence Iran's decision.
Election promises yet to be fulfilled
Iran's president came to power on a campaign promise to strengthen civil rights and lift some strict internet blocks. However, no measures have been implemented to date. An Iranian professor who spoke on condition of anonymity said: “Peseshkian continues to try to win sympathy through popular behavior and relatively critical remarks.” However, since the wave of protests in recent years, a large part of society no longer believes Such a commitment. “People want results, not empty words,” the university lecturer explained by phone. He still believes Peseshkian's intentions are honest. “He believed what he said. But Peseshkian was never a real politician, but a provincial revolutionary idealist.” (Sudanese Development Authority/Department of Political Affairs)
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