In Nevada, Democrats hedged their bets on control of the Senate

Reno, Navy. — As labor activists prepared to knock on doors to support Senator Jackie Rosen on a sunny afternoon, the Nevada Democrat assured them that their hard work would pay off.

“In the next 26 days, these sneakers will be worn out… and on election night, you helped me, and whoever you are helping, return the Democratic majority to the United States Senate!” Rosen said Reno's culinary union drew applause from workers packed into the hall.

Democrats need to win Nevada and hold onto seats in other perennial battleground states to maintain their slim Senate majorities while trying to avoid losses or pick up GOP-held seats in red states.

While Republicans don't need to win Nevada to flip the Senate, the state could help shape the size of the Republican majority. And it could determine whether the Senate will be at the mercy of a handful of moderates or whether it will be governed by a larger, bolder Republican majority. Activists in both parties expect the race between Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, an Army veteran, to intensify in recent weeks as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris also vie for the six Republican seats. state. electoral vote.

Rosen told NBC News before speaking to the culinary union that voters have a “clear choice” in the Senate race.

“I think Sam Brown is too extreme, and I want to be that pragmatic problem solver, that bipartisan senator who gets results for Nevada,” Rosen said.

Republicans believe they have advantages on issues like the economy and cost of living.

“Voters continue to feel the pain at the gas pump and the grocery store, but Sam's plan resonates with working families and the momentum is on our side,” Brown campaign spokeswoman Regan Lehman said in a statement, pointing to Brown's support for policies such as eliminating the tip tax that Rosen also supports and Social Security benefits.

A 'missed opportunity' for the Republican Party?

On paper, Nevada looks like a ripe Republican target.

Two years ago, Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto sealed her party's majority by winning re-election – by less than 8,000 votes. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by just 2 percentage points. Hillary Clinton won Nevada by the same margin in 2016.

Along with voters' concerns about prices and the economy, Republicans also see an opportunity to move to the right among Latino voters. And with voters constantly moving in and out of Nevada, they saw Rosen as a relative outsider.

But there is brown late Behind Trump in most public polls. A recent poll by Prepare Political Reporting with Amy Walters Brown underperformed Trump, especially among Latinos and independents. In 2020, Latinos made up 17% of the Nevada electorate. Voters not registered with any party have increased since 2020 and now make up the largest share of active voters in the state.

Some Republicans worry it may be too late for Brown to close that gap.

“It’s a huge missed opportunity,” said a Nevada Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the party’s strategy.

“The problem set was there. There was an unknown candidate,” the agent said, referring to Rosen. “Trump is obviously having very strong results here, he can win. And meanwhile you have a Senate candidate who is out of the presidential race. And it’s just a byproduct of a bad campaign.”

The agent suggested that Brown's campaign had not been active enough during the campaign and that he had not been able to stem the flood of Democratic attacks by attracting free media attention on his own.

Brown has not had any public campaign events this week ahead of Trump's rally in Reno on Friday, which Brown is expected to attend. The campaign did not make Brown available for an interview, despite multiple requests.

“Sam is a popular leader whose schedule is packed from morning to night with meetings with supporters and voters in Nevada,” Brown campaign spokeswoman Lehman countered in a statement. “Without a doubt, he is the hardest-working candidate in Nevada and has dedicated his time to building relationships with voter communities that Jackie Rosen completely abandoned.”

Other Republicans noted that the initial flurry of Democratic ads made it harder for Brown to gain traction.

Since the June primary, Democrats have spent $57.7 million on ads in the state, compared to $37 million for Republicans, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Rosen's campaign spent $19 million on advertising alone, while Brown's campaign spent $4.4 million. Meanwhile, Republicans' big-spending outside groups don't currently have a major advertising plan, although the Senate GOP's campaign arm is partnering with Brown on some ad campaigns.

Jack Moyle, former executive director of the Nevada Republican Party, said Republicans recognized from the beginning that it would be a tough race, so they chose “a very safe candidate who is a solid, world-class American.” Brown served in Afghanistan and suffered severe burns after his vehicle ran over an explosive device.

“But it proved to be exactly what it was: an uphill battle,” Moyle said.

While it's unclear whether Brown will be able to catch up to Trump, operatives in both parties expect the Senate race to tighten in recent weeks, especially as Brown rallies Republican voters who support the former president.

“He’s behind Trump, and that’s what we need,” said Anita Henson Sanchez, a Republican and retired professor who supports Brown, who attended a Trump campaign volunteer event in Las Vegas this week.

Democratic Balance Act

As Brown embraced Trump, Rosen had to balance aligning with Harris while insisting he broke with his party.

in his first TV commercial, Rosen said he “will not toe the party line.” Rosen skipped the Democratic convention this summer but campaigned with Harris as the party's presumptive presidential nominee at his first rally in Nevada. Rosen said Harris' rise to the top of the ticket has led to an increase in the number of volunteers and voter registration.

“People feel hopeful and encouraged,” Rosen said.

Biden was struggling in the Nevada elections, especially among young voters and Latino voters. While Harris has been a powerhouse, he sidestepped questions about how his approach would differ from Biden's, plus he recently named a Republican to his Cabinet.

Asked whether Harris would have to separate herself from the president to win Nevada, Rosen said: “The race is about Orange Harris versus Donald Trump. It’s about me versus Sam Browne.”

“She’s independent,” Rogen later added. “I think he made it clear who he was and how he was trying to make the dream of most Americans come true.”

As the state's presidential race approaches, Democrats are hopeful that Rosen will be in a strong position to win a second term as he works to shape the early stages of the race.

Rosen launched his first TV ads in April, ads in English and Spanish aimed at Latino voters.

“I'm a Mexican, immigrant woman, and she understands all of our problems,” Sylvia Buonrostro, campaign director for the kitchen union, said at Thursday's event, pointing to Rosen's support for abortion rights, infrastructure and reducing drug prices.

Rosen also released a TV commercial attacking Brown before winning the primary, labeling him “another MAGA extremist trying to take away abortion rights.”

Democrats have focused their attack on Brown on abortion, although he has said he would not support a federal abortion ban. His wife Amy also revealed in an interview with NBC News that she had an abortion before meeting Brown.

Brown used parts of that interview in TV commercials, but those ads stopped running at the end of August, according to AdImpact.

But Democrats pointed to Brown's past on the issue, including his past support for a Texas abortion ban. Brown recently suggested he opposes a ballot initiative in the state that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution, according to audio obtained by Nevada Independent.

Rosen emphasized that the issue is important to Nevadans, even though voters often list the high cost of living as their top concern.

“Nevada is an overwhelmingly pro-choice state and a third – a third – of American women do not have access to reproductive health care,” Rosen said. “And so it’s not just a women’s issue. It's one of the many things we're going to discuss — cost reduction, housing, all these things… I believe this is a very important issue in our country, and I don't want to see more women die, and I'm here to try to save lives and I don't want no doctor or nurse goes to jail.”