Xi Jinping's allies are now raising concerns about him.Image: trapezoid
Many of the People's Republic of China's neighbors view China's aggressive expansionary policies as a threat. But it is mainly allies that currently cause concern and even anger among Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Patrick Dickman/t-online
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This is a milestone for both countries and an important signal for the entire Asian continent. Last week, China and India reached a deal aimed at ending a violent border dispute in India's Himalayan region of Ladakh. Leaders of the world's most populous nation have agreed to resume joint patrols along the disputed border.
An important step away from possible armed conflict. Although the border dispute has not yet been resolved, further escalation is certainly possible in the future. But the region is breathing a sigh of relief.
Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping at BRICS summit in Russia: Their rapprochement has signaling effect.Image: trapezoid
Not to mention the difficult economic situation the country is currently in. Just two weeks ago, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that economic growth in the People's Republic of China continued to slow. The second largest economy grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. As a result, China's economy is growing at its slowest pace since early 2023.
The result: panic in Beijing. China’s leadership hopes to counter this problem with new debt and economic stimulus packages.
In this delicate situation, Chinese President Xi Jinping is trying to delicately balance relations with the West. But it turns out that it is mainly its geographical neighbors with which it maintains alliances that pose problems for China. So it is Xi Jinping’s friends who are currently giving Beijing a headache and even a little anger.
Support Putin, but at all costs?
The most striking example is China's relationship with Russia. Kremlin leaders Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are close strategic partners, and they show this to the world in every public appearance. After Putin decoupled from most of the Western economies, China's energy-starved economy was happy to buy Russian raw materials at discounted prices, and Chinese products flooded into the Russian market, thus closing the gap left by the West.
Have a drink with Putin.Image: trapezoid
But this is only one side of the coin. From a purely security policy perspective, Putin's aggressive war in Ukraine is a nuisance for Beijing. If you believe Chinese diplomats, China’s leadership remains surprised that the Russian military has not won the war with its neighbors after two and a half years.
Xi Jinping supports Putin because he is more predictable for China as ruler of Russia and is now economically dependent on the People's Republic of China. But the war also had a negative impact on the global economy. Inflation, shortage of raw materials, military investment. This undermines China’s economic model, which relies on well-functioning global trade. In addition, Western countries believe that dependence on Russia is a huge mistake and use it as an opportunity to question supply chains with China.
Companies, mainly in many European countries, are now trying to diversify their production while also looking to India or other countries in Southeast Asia. In order not to completely alienate the West, Xi Jinping has long avoided the war in Ukraine and has not yet directly supplied weapons to Russia. But China has provided financial and political support to the Kremlin on the international stage. As the war continues, this will have consequences for China's relations with the West.
Putin-Kim Jong-un alliance sparks trouble
Particularly sensitive to China's leadership is Russia's alignment with another problematic neighbor, North Korea. During Putin's visit to Pyongyang in June, he signed a mutual assistance agreement with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un that obligates both sides to intervene if either country comes under attack. Now, North Korea is sending thousands of troops to Russia to support Putin's handling of the war in Ukraine, in a further escalation.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un: Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine led to a coalition of dictators.Image: trapezoid
But it also demonstrates North Korea’s alienation from China, the de facto protective force of Kim’s dictatorship. There has been a formal defense agreement between the two countries since 1961, and the two countries have long viewed themselves as ideological allies in the fight for communism.
Those times have passed; China-North Korea relations have long been problematic. China is angry that Kim Jong Un is spreading instability in the region through his nuclear weapons program and threatening to destroy South Korea and the United States. This has been known for a long time, but now North Korea appears to be overstepping its bounds: Kim is joining a European war that could exacerbate broader geopolitical confrontations and escalate conflict with the United States. This is not in Beijing’s interest at the moment.
In North Korea, Putin has also pledged to militarily arm Kim Jong Un's dictatorship. Russian military technology could allow North Korea to take more aggressive actions in the future, causing Japan and South Korea, America's closest allies in the Indo-Pacific, to continue to arm themselves, something Beijing fears. For Xi Jinping, this is a nightmare.
China remains North Korea’s economic life insurance. Behind the scenes, however, ideological differences between the two countries appear to be becoming increasingly clear. According to the English-language news platform Korea Ilbo, dictator Kim Jong-un is said to have repeatedly stated in diplomatic talks that Japan is a “century-old enemy” and China is a “thousand-year-old enemy.” enemy. “
Most importantly, North Korea's grievance is that the People's Republic of China is not as aggressive toward the United States as North Korea's leaders. In Beijing, on the other hand, the Kim dictatorship is sometimes seen as a backward and inhumane regime that does not want to follow China's 1980 path of opening up.
China failed in Myanmar
The security issue that Chinese leaders are most concerned about right now is the situation in Myanmar. Military leadership that maintains close ties with Beijing risks losing civil wars in China's neighboring countries. Beijing invests heavily in mega-projects and infrastructure in its neighbours, which is why Xi initially relied on corrupt generals who staged a coup in Myanmar. That's what's at stake now.
China's leadership is also said to be angry at the junta's failure. China considers its duty to protect Chinese property and Chinese citizens in Myanmar. That’s why Beijing is currently building closer ties and forging new agreements with Myanmar’s ethnic militias and other anti-government forces.
Of particular concern is the shared border, where rebel groups have recently gained increasing ground and seized border posts. Xi Jinping's main concern is clearly peace and tranquility in Myanmar so that mutual trade can work again. China has tried to mediate peace between the two countries, but without success.
Ultimately, this is the hard lesson China has learned from all these relationships with its neighbors: The People's Republic of China has emerged as an economic superpower in recent decades and continues to build up its military capabilities. But that power is of little use if Xi cannot use it to gain influence.
In particular, relations with friends in North Korea and Russia indicate that China is not prepared to put pressure on these countries. This also applies to Myanmar, where Beijing seems unable to end the conflict yet.
China’s restraint strategy has led these allied regimes to play with China’s nose by taking actions that go against China’s interests. So far, Xi Jinping appears to be still figuring out how China can best exert its influence. For the People's Republic of China, this will continue to be a difficult balancing act going forward.
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