Harris vs Trump Latest Predictions

It's D-Day in the United States, and the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump still seems wide open. An overview of the latest surveys and forecasts.

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Michael Moore's huge success was a long time ago. The 70-year-old filmmaker, who won Oscars for “Bowling for Columbine” (2002) and “Fahrenheit 9/11” (2004), has been warmly received by audiences and sparked fierce controversy . “Fahrenheit 11/9,” which told the story of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, flopped despite rave reviews.

Moore, a figurehead of the American left, was one of the few who correctly predicted Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton. Four years ago, he was afraid to make a firm prediction because he thought Joe Biden was doing too well in the polls. He was right about this, too: Biden beat Trump by a narrower margin than expected.

In a good mood: Kamala Harris and husband Doug Emhoff are on a flight to Philadelphia for a final rally.Image: trapezoid

The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is tighter now, but Michael Moore still made a very clear announcement. But before we dive in, let's add a cliffhanger and look at the latest polls and predictions for the day voting opens across the United States.

good news for harris

“New York Times” political analyst Nate Cohen said this is “one of the closest presidential elections in the history of American politics.” If you conduct a “blank” survey, anything is possible. Nationally, the margins between Harris and Trump were within the margin of error in seven key battleground states.

The former president made strong gains in October, but days before the election brought good news for the Democratic vice president. In the perhaps decisive swing state of Pennsylvania, she holds a narrow lead over Trump in recent representation surveys. One reason may be the Puerto Rico controversy.

50:50 Simulation

A supposedly serious survey showing Harris leading in Iowa also caused a stir. This small, agricultural Midwestern state is considered a Republican bastion. Few people in the United States believe this finding, and in any case the accuracy of these surveys is questioned. Regardless, clear predictions are few and far between.

Bad atmosphere: Many seats remained empty as Donald Trump's campaign stop in Grand Rapids, Michigan, ended.Image: trapezoid

In The Economist's Electoral College simulation, Kamala Harris has a slight lead on Election Day, but the chances are still 50-50. Statistician Nate Silver conducted no less than 80,000 simulations. Harris' winning percentage is 50.015%. 49.985% of voters support Trump or a tie (269:269 voters).

Positive messages and threats

Kamala Harris appears to have a slight advantage. This is not surprising given the developments of the past few days. While Democrats try to send a positive message at rallies, Donald Trump's rallies have been characterized by more or less overt threats and insults to those who disagree, especially his opponents.

Will Trump’s erratic behavior, displays of machismo and hateful rhetoric be his downfall? Some predictions and models point in this direction:

focus

Politico described the UK institute's survey as a “mega-opinion poll”. It is based on a survey of more than 31,000 voters in the United States and matched to each state's demographic data using a statistical method called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP).

In the US presidential election, Focaldata models have long suggested that Donald Trump would win. However, in the latest update, things have swung in favor of the Democrats. This is due to older white women who typically vote to the right but are now leaning toward Kamala Harris. Preliminary results from early voting support that hypothesis.

crystal ball

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia developed a predictive model called the Crystal Ball. Eight years ago, like many others, he thought Hillary Clinton would win. In 2020, however, he predicted Joe Biden's success quite accurately. This year, Sabato would rather “misplace” his crystal ball given the closeness of the game.

Now the famous political scientist dares to make a prediction. He predicts Kamala Harris will win 276 to 262 electoral votes. Sabato cited impressions in the days leading up to the election as the main reason. In 2016, their focus was on Clinton’s emails. This year the focus is on Trump’s gaffes.

Michael Moore

Now back to the filmmakers. In early October, Moore claimed that Donald Trump was “scorched,” or burned. Then he started chasing. What now? Michael Moore still believes Kamala Harris will win, 'obviously'. His “key witness” was a little-known political scientist named Rachel Bitecofer.

Like Moore, she correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 and 2020 elections, as well as the 2022 midterm elections. Bitcover, who has a degree from the University of Georgia, wrote that the available data is “extremely positive” for Harris. There is “not a shred of evidence” that Trump’s strategy of mobilizing men is successful.

An analysis by Politico actually showed that significantly more women than men participated in early voting. That doesn't guarantee a win for Harris. Neither Focaldata nor Larry Sabato wants to rule out the possibility of a Donald Trump victory. Even Michael Moore thinks he could be “very wrong.”

Still, these latest “water level reports” provide a wealth of information. They suggest Kamala Harris' chances may be better than many here think.